Risk Academy, a Nexortium programmeSystems and Nexus StudiesDepartment of Systemic Risk and Complexity

Extreme pandemics, nuclear risk, space weather, large eruptions and advanced technology

Global catastrophic risks

Global catastrophic risks covers low-probability, high-impact risks that could severely harm humanity at global scale: extreme pandemics, nuclear war, extreme space weather and near-Earth objects, very large volcanic eruptions, severe climate outcomes and risks from advanced technology, and how such risks can be studied and governed with honesty about deep uncertainty.

risksacademy.comsystems-nexusdiscipline

Global catastrophic risks, drawn as coupled loops: 0 primary courses open, 1 in preparation, 0 approved for authoring and 2 also taught here, across 8 subtopics. Courses: RAS-408 L3 in preparation, RAS-412 L2 also taught here, RAX-510 L3 also taught here.RAS-408RAS-412RAX-5108 subtopics
Global catastrophic risks at a glance. Drawn as coupled loops.
  • Open, 0
  • In preparation, 1
  • Also taught here, 2
  • Subtopics, 8
Course codes from the curriculum; study levels L1 to L4.
Twin builder and simulatorThe Tonle Sap and the Lower Mekong at Phnom Penh5 twin generators, 14 layers, 2 instruments
courses open now
0
in preparation
1
subtopics in its scope
8
dams
14

Twin figures for the Tonle Sap and the Lower Mekong at Phnom Penh, counted from its layers at their stated dates.

Twin builder and simulator.

For Global catastrophic risks: the faculty's twin of Tonle Sap on the planet map, the globe and in 3D. Pick a generator, switch layers, run the instruments; every layer prints its provider and date.

The Tonle Sap and the Lower Mekong at Phnom Penh: a flat plan of the faculty twin. Terrain 0 to 1,700 m; River 2,956 km; 14 dams; 6 power plants, 88 MW; Tree cover 37.8 percent of the box; Cropland 39.9 percent of the box; Built-up 0.9 percent of the box; Permanent water 4.7 percent of the box; River discharge, GloFAS via Open-Meteo: live, loads in the twin; Vegetation index, MODIS Terra NDVI 8-day: live, loads in the twin; Surface water extent, OPERA DSWx (HLS): the flood pulse: live, loads in the twin; Land cover classes, MODIS IGBP (annual): live, loads in the twin. Contours every 250 metres from the elevation grid; named rivers by class; cropland, tree cover, water and built-up shares (esa worldcover 2021) as the class holding a quarter or more of each cell; dams as marks; power plants as marks.
The Tonle Sap and the Lower Mekong at Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Flat plan of the same data: the lake and rivers, the dams, the plants by capacity, the cropland and tree cover cells and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked; discharge, vegetation, surface water and the annual land cover load in the twin on request, each with its data date.
  • Terrain 0 to 1,700 m
  • River 2,956 km
  • 14 dams
  • 6 power plants, 88 MW
  • Tree cover 37.8 percent of the box
  • Cropland 39.9 percent of the box
  • Built-up 0.9 percent of the box
  • Permanent water 4.7 percent of the box
  • River discharge, GloFAS via Open-Meteo: live, loads in the twin
  • Vegetation index, MODIS Terra NDVI 8-day: live, loads in the twin
  • Surface water extent, OPERA DSWx (HLS): the flood pulse: live, loads in the twin
  • Land cover classes, MODIS IGBP (annual): live, loads in the twin
Credits and dates per layer are listed under the stage. Relief in the twin is exaggerated ×1.5 for legibility.

Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and - zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.

Flat plan of the same data: the lake and rivers, the dams, the plants by capacity, the cropland and tree cover cells and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked; discharge, vegetation, surface water and the annual land cover load in the twin on request, each with its data date.

The map loads from this site as it nears the view (MapLibre 6.9.1, checked by hash).

The discipline in brief.

The discipline teaches the structured study of tail risks, scenario construction without probability where none can be defended, planetary-level shared exposure on the scope ladder of Nexus-Based Risk Management, the reading of expert judgement as judgement rather than forecast, and governance options for risks no single institution owns. The faculty's cascade instrument is its reading exercise: a basin-scale loop shows how a shock in one system reaches the others, and the planetary level of the ladder asks the same question of the global food, finance and information networks. Its current evidence base is dated: the International AI Safety Report of February 2026, the preliminary report of the UN Independent International Scientific Panel on AI of July 2026, and the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board's 2025 report on pandemic preparedness. A graduate can write a catastrophic risk assessment that separates record, model and judgement, and say which uncertainties are deep.

This area covers low-probability, high-impact risks that could severely harm humanity at global scale: extreme pandemics, nuclear war, extreme space weather and near-Earth objects, very large volcanic eruptions, severe climate outcomes and risks from advanced technology. It is taught in the department of Systemic Risk and Complexity, Faculty of Systems and Nexus Studies, through 1 course with it as primary discipline and 2 more that also teach it.

What the discipline covers.

8 subtopics, taught across its courses and labs.

Courses
0 open, 1 in preparation
Levels
L3 Advanced
Labs
Network lab
  • Defining global catastrophic risk
  • Extreme pandemics
  • Nuclear risk
  • Extreme space weather and near-Earth objects
  • Very large volcanic eruptions
  • Severe climate outcomes
  • Risks from advanced technology
  • Governance of low-probability, high-impact risk

What is changing now.

Recent developments in global catastrophic risks, each with its source; sources checked on 16 October 2026. Summaries are short readings of the source; follow the link for the full account.

The faculty hub.

News and research as they are published, per discipline, with the faculty's other tools.

The newest research, preprints, news and humanitarian reports for Global catastrophic risks, each with its source and date, load here. Open the research and news hub

Hazard families it covers.

From the Academy's risk taxonomy: the discipline's own entries and those of its primary courses, with how many courses teach each.

Hazard families

  1. AI and algorithmic failure1 course
  2. Epidemic and pandemic disease1 course
  3. Nuclear and radiological1 course
  4. Space weather and near-Earth objects1 course

1 in preparation.

No course with this primary discipline is open yet; these are planned, so you can prepare with the courses also taught here.

Courses with this primary discipline0 open, 1 in preparation

  1. RAS-408Global Catastrophic RisksIn preparationSystems, L3 Advanced, 10 hours (estimate)

Courses from other disciplines.

These courses count in their own primary discipline and also teach this one; they do not count towards its achievement as primary courses.

Also taught here2 courses that count in another discipline

  1. RAS-412Pandemics as Systemic RiskIn preparationSystems, L2 Intermediate, 10 hours (estimate), primary in Public health emergencies and epidemics
  2. RAX-510Planetary NRM: global commons, tipping and shared exposureIn preparationNexus-Based Risk Management, L3 Advanced, 10 hours (estimate), primary in Nexus-Based Risk Management (NRM)

No ecosystem page yet.

No ecosystem page covers this subject yet. A page has been requested; no loosely related page is cited in its place.

The two Foundry systems where it is practised.

  • Nexus FoundryDSS systemLow-probability, high-consequence scenariosScenarios room
  • Nexus systemInstitutional deliberation on extreme risksCouncil room

Nexus Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; they are not a service on offer, and studying here gives no access to them.

How the subject is practised in labs.

LabWhat you do in itCourses using it
Network labBuild dependency graphs, find critical nodes, trace cascades1

What you can earn here.

Terms used on this page.

Global catastrophic risks

Prepare with a related course.

Open courses in connected disciplines teach the methods this discipline will build on.

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