nexustandards.com/early-warning · 2 taught
Early Warning and Anticipatory Action
NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action; NRS-I2 Risk communication and public-safe dashboards
2standards1discipline
Illustrative: an ensemble of trajectories, its quantile fan and the outcome as it is observed
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Hazards, Disasters and Resilience · Department of Disaster Risk Reduction and Early Warning
Four pillars of warning, impact-based forecasting, triggers and action before the peak
Early warning and anticipatory action
A warning is a chain: risk knowledge, monitoring and forecasting, dissemination and communication, and preparedness to respond.
- Courses
- 2 courses open
- Levels
- L2 Intermediate
- Labs
- Trigger lab, Map lab, Exposure lab, Geo quiz, GeoAI lab
- The four pillars of early warning
- Impact-based forecasting
- Warning messages and the Common Alerting Protocol
- Forecast verification
- Trigger design and thresholds
- Anticipatory action protocols
- Pre-arranged finance for early action
- Last-mile dissemination
Courses in development extend the scope to one further subject: Machine learning for hazard forecasting.
02Maps
Build a twin of any place
Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow early warning and anticipatory action on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.
- Terrain 59 to 3,044 m
- 2 reference earthquakes, M7.5 to M7.8
- 3,643,786 people in the box, 2020
- Earthquakes M4.5 and above, past week: read live when the 3D twin opens
- USGS ShakeMap intensity contours: read live when the 3D twin opens
Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and – zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
Flat plan of the same data: relief, the two epicentres with magnitude and depth, the WorldPop count grid and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices that can draw it, once its data and code have been checked.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
03Live map
Hazards now in Türkiye
Flood water, active fires, heavy rain and smoke, beside where people live, over Türkiye.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards now
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards now, framed on Türkiye.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (20 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
04The subject
The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies
The field and its scope
For forecasters, warning officers, humanitarian planners and finance officers who design, verify or act on a warning or trigger and need to know how much to trust it.
Quantities and units
Methods and their limits
Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.
What the field debates
Bodies that set practice, and the data they publish
Bodies and standards are named so learners can find and apply their published work; the Academy teaches their use and links to the publisher, and no affiliation is implied.
05The method
From a forecast to a trigger: how hit rate, false alarms and the cost-loss ratio decide whether acting early pays
A forecast's verification gives its hit rate and false alarm rate; a user's cost of acting against the loss avoided gives a cost-loss ratio; together they give the relative economic value of acting on the forecast, which is positive only for some users and some thresholds, and that is what a trigger design must find.
Sources: Richardson, Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (2000); Coughlan de Perez et al., Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts (2015); Murphy, What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting (1993); Hallegatte, A cost effective solution to reduce disaster losses in developing countries: hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation (2012).
06At a glance
At a glance, with 5 related topics
Early warning and anticipatory action at a glance
risksacademy.comhazards-resiliencediscipline
- Open, 2
- In preparation, 3
- Also taught here, 4
- Subtopics, 8
Nexus Standards it teaches and relies on
The Nexus Standards the discipline teaches toward, grouped by master standard, with the disciplines that teach each.
nexustandards.com/hazards · 1 taught
Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction
NRS-M2 Hazard science
1standard1discipline
Nexus Standards at the AcademyThe Academy proposes how each discipline teaches toward the Nexus Standards; the mapping is open for public review.
Research and tools
Research and preprints as they are published, by discipline, with the faculty's other tools.
The hub lists the newest research and preprints for Early warning and anticipatory action, each with its source and date. Open the research hub
Methods, frameworks and hazards
From the Academy's risk taxonomy: the discipline's own entries and those of its primary courses, with how many courses teach each.
What is changing now
Recent developments in early warning and anticipatory action, each with its source; sources checked on 16 October 2026.
Courses in this discipline
Courses with this as their primary discipline.
Courses from connected disciplines that also teach this field
Each course has its primary discipline elsewhere and teaches this field as part of its scope.
07Labs
How the subject is practised in labs
08Console
How Early warning and anticipatory action is taught, as a process you can run
Press Play to run this process from this page's own data.
09Practice
Practice, learning and connections
How technology helps and what risk it brings
Achievements in this discipline
Pathways that teach it
Where the subject is practised
The two Foundry systems where it is practised
- FoundryNXS-EWS systemWarning support and forecast verificationForecast Verification room, Warning Desk room
- NXS-AAP systemTriggers and readiness for early actionTriggers room, Readiness room
Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; the courses teach the methods these systems apply.
Disciplines it depends on
- Department of Humanitarian Action, Mobility and Community ResilienceHumanitarian action and displacementThe discipline covers the humanitarian system, its principles, coordination arrangements and minimum standards.
- Faculty of Finance and EconomicsDisaster risk financeDisaster risk finance plans in advance how the costs of disasters will be met.
Across the ecosystem
10Take part
Take part in Hazards, Disasters and Resilience
Start from who you are.
11References
Core references and where to begin
Start with Mileti, then Murphy, then Richardson.
12Questions
Questions, answers and key terms
Is study here free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the courses in early warning and anticipatory action?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.
Key terms
Term
Impact-based forecast
A forecast that states what the weather or hazard is expected to do to people and assets, not only what it will be.
Term
Trigger
A pre-agreed threshold on a forecast or observation that starts a defined action.
Term
Lead time
The time between a warning and the onset of the hazard.
Term
False alarm ratio
The share of warnings that were not followed by the warned event.
ReportsContribute
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Risk Academy
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Around Early warning and anticipatory action
Early warning and anticipatory action
Start with an open course
The catalogue lists each course with its outcomes, labs, hours and level.