Hazards, Disasters and Resilience
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Illustrative: an ensemble of trajectories, its quantile fan and the outcome as it is observed
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Hazards, Disasters and Resilience
A warning is a chain: risk knowledge, monitoring and forecasting, dissemination and communication, and preparedness to respond.
The model
From a forecast to a trigger: how hit rate, false alarms and the cost-loss ratio decide whether acting early pays
DataModelGateDecisionStandard it teachesStandard it relies onNeighbouring discipline
The model From a forecast to a trigger: how hit rate, false alarms and the cost-loss ratio decide whether acting early pays
The subtopics its courses and labs teach.
Courses in development extend the scope to one further subject: Machine learning for hazard forecasting.
For forecasters, warning officers, humanitarian planners and finance officers who design, verify or act on a warning or trigger and need to know how much to trust it.
Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.
Bodies and standards are named so learners can find and apply their published work; the Academy teaches their use and links to the publisher, and no affiliation is implied.
Early warning and anticipatory action's own model runs in the scene at the top of this page: set its parameters there and play the steps. The separate chart simulator is left off this page so that it stays within its size budget.
Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow early warning and anticipatory action on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.
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Flat plan of the same data: relief, the two epicentres with magnitude and depth, the WorldPop count grid and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
The Nexus Standards the discipline teaches toward, grouped by master standard, with the disciplines that teach each.
Nexus Standards at the AcademyThe Academy proposes how each discipline teaches toward the Nexus Standards; the mapping is open for review by the editors of the Nexus Standards.
Open scholarly sources searched with the subject terms of Early warning and anticipatory action.
Search termsEarly warning and anticipatory action; The four pillars of early warning; Impact-based forecasting; Warning messages and the Common Alerting Protocol; Forecast verification; Trigger design and thresholdsDerived from the Risk Academy page on Early warning and anticipatory action.
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Research and preprints as they are published, by discipline, with the faculty's other tools.
The hub lists the newest research and preprints for Early warning and anticipatory action, each with its source and date. Open the research hub
From the Academy's risk taxonomy: the discipline's own entries and those of its primary courses, with how many courses teach each.
Recent developments in early warning and anticipatory action, each with its source; sources checked on 16 October 2026.
Courses with this as their primary discipline.
Each course has its primary discipline elsewhere and teaches this field as part of its scope.
Nexus Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; the courses teach the methods these systems apply.
Start with Mileti, then Murphy, then Richardson.
Nexus Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
The catalogue lists each course with its outcomes, labs, hours and level.