Open learning

A

Abrupt sunlight reduction scenario

A scenario in which soot or ash blocks sunlight and disrupts global food production. Global catastrophic risks

Accountability

The obligation to explain and answer for decisions and their results. Risk governance and institutions

Accumulation

The build-up of many insured exposures that one event can affect at once. Insurance, reinsurance and protection gaps

Accuracy assessment

Comparing a map with reference data to estimate its errors. Geospatial analysis, Earth observation and GeoAI

Adaptation pathway

A sequence of adaptation actions with decision points as conditions change. Climate and nature governance

Additionality

The extent to which finance enables an outcome that would not otherwise happen. Development finance

Advanced material

A material engineered for new or much improved properties, such as composites or nanomaterials. Advanced industry, manufacturing and materials

Aerosol

A suspension of fine solid or liquid particles in the air, from dust and sea salt to smoke and sulphate. Atmosphere and air chemistry

After-action review

A structured review of what was planned, what happened and what to change. Preparedness, emergency and crisis management

Agent-based model

A simulation of individual actors and their interactions. Complex systems and systems modelling

Agentic AI

AI systems that plan and take actions towards goals with limited human intervention. AI assurance and audit

Agentic system

An AI system that plans and takes actions toward goals with limited human direction. Artificial intelligence and machine learning

Agricultural drought

A shortage of soil moisture that reduces crop or pasture growth. Heat, drought and wildfire

AI assurance

The processes that build and communicate justified confidence that an AI system meets its requirements. AI assurance and audit

Air quality index

A scale that converts pollutant concentrations into categories with health advice. Pollution and environmental health

Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty

Uncertainty from natural randomness and uncertainty from limited knowledge. Uncertainty and decision making

Algorithmic impact assessment

An assessment of the effects of an automated decision system before and during use. AI and digital governance

Analysis-ready data

Satellite data processed to a level that allows immediate analysis without further correction. Earth observation and Earth system data

Anchoring

The bias of adjusting too little away from an initial value when making an estimate. Expert judgement and elicitation

Annual exceedance probability

The probability that an event of at least a given size occurs in any one year. Floods, storms and tropical cyclones

Anticipatory governance

Governance that builds foresight and engagement into decisions about emerging technology. Innovation and frontier technology governance

Antimicrobial resistance

The ability of microorganisms to survive medicines that once killed or stopped them. One Health, zoonoses and antimicrobial resistance

Asset-liability management

Managing assets and liabilities together so obligations can be met. Market, liquidity and treasury risk

Assurance

An objective examination of evidence that gives an opinion on how well risks are managed. Assurance, internal control and risk culture

Assurance case

A structured argument, supported by evidence, that a system is acceptable for a use. AI assurance and audit

Attestation

A signed statement, recorded with evidence, that a requirement has been met. Risk information standards and interoperability

Attributable mortality

Deaths estimated to be caused by an exposure, such as heat, above what would otherwise occur. Climate and health

Availability heuristic

Judging how likely an event is by how easily examples come to mind. Risk perception and behavioural science

Average annual loss

The expected loss per year averaged over many years. Quantitative risk analysis and statistics

B

Back-testing

Comparing model predictions with what happened. Model risk and validation

Backcasting

Working back from a desired future to identify the steps needed to reach it. Foresight and futures

Bangkok Principles

Principles adopted in 2016 for implementing the health aspects of the Sendai Framework. Biological and epidemic hazards in disaster risk management

Basic reproduction number

The average number of new infections caused by one case in a fully susceptible population. Public health emergencies and epidemics

Basis risk

The mismatch between a parametric payout and the actual loss. Disaster risk finance

Bayesian updating

Revising a probability estimate as new evidence arrives. Quantitative risk analysis and statistics

Behavioural insight

Evidence from behavioural science used to design a policy, service or message. Risk perception and behavioural science

Benchmark contamination

When test data have leaked into a model's training data, so scores overstate its ability. AI safety and evaluation

Beneficial owner

The natural person who ultimately owns or controls a legal entity. Financial crime and fraud

Biodiversity credit

A tradable unit representing a measured positive biodiversity outcome, whose integrity rules are still developing. Nature and biodiversity finance

Biological hazard

A process or phenomenon of organic origin, such as a pathogen or toxin, that may cause loss of life, illness or disruption. Biological and epidemic hazards in disaster risk management

Biological Weapons Convention

The treaty that prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer and stockpiling of biological and toxin weapons. Biotechnology, biosecurity and neurotechnology

Biosafety

Practices and controls that prevent unintended exposure to or release of biological agents. Biotechnology, biosecurity and neurotechnology

Biosecurity

Measures that prevent the loss, theft or misuse of biological agents and knowledge. Biotechnology, biosecurity and neurotechnology

Biosphere integrity

The functional and genetic diversity of living systems, one of the two core boundaries. Planetary boundaries and Earth system resilience

Black start

Restarting a power system from a total or partial shutdown without external supply. Energy systems and the energy transition

Blended finance

The use of public or philanthropic funds to attract private investment to development projects. Development finance

Blue and green water

Blue water flows in rivers, lakes and aquifers; green water is soil moisture used by plants. Water security and hydrology

Blue economy

Economic activity that depends on the ocean and coasts, managed to keep marine ecosystems healthy. Oceans and coasts

Border Gateway Protocol

The routing protocol that exchanges reachability between networks on the internet, whose misconfiguration can cause outages. Telecommunications and digital infrastructure

Boundary organisation

An organisation that works between science and policy to keep evidence credible, relevant and legitimate. Research, evidence and the science-policy interface

Bow-tie diagram

A diagram that links the causes of an event to its consequences through preventive and mitigating barriers. Technological, industrial and Natech hazards

Build back better

Using recovery and reconstruction to increase resilience through risk reduction. Recovery, reconstruction and loss accounting

Building code

Rules that set minimum standards for the design and construction of buildings. Cities, housing and the built environment

Bullwhip effect

The amplification of demand fluctuations as orders move up a supply chain. Supply network and economic contagion

Business impact analysis

An analysis of the effects of disruption on activities over time, used to set recovery priorities. Operational risk and business continuity

C

Calibrated classifier

A classifier whose predicted probabilities match observed frequencies. AI and machine learning for risk analysis

Calibrated uncertainty language

The IPCC convention of stating findings with defined likelihood and confidence terms. Climate science, variability and change

Calibration

Agreement between forecast probabilities and observed frequencies: events forecast at 30 per cent happen about that often. Probabilistic forecasting and verification

Capability evaluation

A test of what an AI system can do, including abilities that could cause harm. AI safety and evaluation

Capacity

The strengths and resources available to manage and reduce disaster risk and strengthen resilience. Disaster risk reduction

Capacity development

The process by which people and organisations build the abilities to manage their own affairs. Capacity development and technical assistance

Carbon dioxide removal

Activities that take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and store it durably. Climate and energy technologies

Cascade

A sequence of impacts that spreads from one system to others. Nexus-Based Risk Management (NRM)

Cascading failure

A failure in one system that triggers failures in dependent systems. Critical infrastructure and lifelines

Cascading risk

Risk of a chain of impacts that spreads from one system to others. Systemic, compound and cascading risk

Case fatality ratio

The share of confirmed cases that die of the disease. Public health emergencies and epidemics

Cash and voucher assistance

Humanitarian aid provided as money or vouchers so that people can buy what they need. Humanitarian action and displacement

Catastrophe bond

A security that transfers defined catastrophe risk to investors. Disaster risk finance

Central counterparty

An entity that stands between the two sides of a trade and guarantees its completion. Payments, market infrastructure and fintech

Chokepoint

A narrow passage, such as a strait or canal, through which a large share of traffic flows. Transport, ports and logistics

Circular migration

Repeated movement between places of origin and destination, often for seasonal work. Migration and human mobility

Classical Model

Cooke's method that weights experts by their calibration and informativeness on seed questions with known answers. Expert judgement and elicitation

Climate litigation

Legal cases that seek to enforce or clarify climate obligations. Climate and nature governance

Climate scenario

A coherent description of a possible climate and economic future used to test exposures, such as the NGFS scenarios. Climate and nature financial risk

Climate variability

Variations in the climate around its mean state on timescales from months to decades, such as ENSO. Climate science, variability and change

Climate-resilient health system

A health system able to anticipate, respond to, cope with and recover from climate-related shocks. Climate and health

Climateflation

Inflation driven by climate-related supply shocks such as droughts and heatwaves. Macroeconomics of climate and disasters

Cloud concentration

Reliance of many users on a small number of cloud providers. Data infrastructure, compute and semiconductors

Cluster approach

The sector-based coordination system for humanitarian response. Humanitarian action and displacement

Coastal squeeze

The loss of coastal habitats trapped between rising seas and fixed defences or development. Oceans and coasts

Cold chain

The temperature-controlled storage and transport that keeps perishable food safe. Food systems and agriculture

Collaborative robot

A robot designed to work alongside people in a shared space. Robotics and autonomous systems

Combined assurance

Coordinating the work of management, risk functions and internal audit so that assurance is complete and not duplicated. Assurance, internal control and risk culture

Combined sewer overflow

A discharge of untreated sewage and stormwater when a combined sewer's capacity is exceeded. Water and wastewater systems

Common Alerting Protocol

An open message format for exchanging all-hazard alerts across systems and channels. Early warning and anticipatory action

Compliance risk

The risk of legal or regulatory sanctions, loss or damage from failing to comply with rules. Compliance and regulatory change

Composite indicator

A combination of individual indicators into a single measure of a multidimensional concept. Risk indicators and composite indices

Compound disaster

A disaster in which an epidemic and another hazard overlap and amplify each other's impact. Biological and epidemic hazards in disaster risk management

Compound event

A combination of drivers or hazards, simultaneous or successive, whose joint occurrence produces an impact larger than each alone. Multi-hazard and compound risk assessment

Compute governance

Rules and practices that oversee access to and use of large-scale computing for advanced AI. Technology security: dual-use, export controls and compute governance

Concentration risk

Exposure arising when many firms depend on the same provider or service. Operational resilience and ICT risk in finance

Concept of operations

A short statement of how a response will be organised and carried out. Preparedness, emergency and crisis management

Concessional finance

Loans with terms more generous than market terms. Development finance

Conduct risk

The risk that a firm's behaviour harms customers or market integrity. Financial regulation and supervision

Conflict early warning

Monitoring of indicators to anticipate the outbreak or escalation of violence. Conflict, fragility and security

Conflict of interest

A situation in which a personal or institutional interest could influence a professional judgement. Capacity development and technical assistance

Conflict sensitivity

Understanding the context and acting to avoid negative effects and support positive ones on conflict. Conflict, fragility and security

Conformal prediction

A method that wraps any model to give prediction sets with a stated coverage under exchangeability. AI and machine learning for risk analysis

Conformance

Meeting the stated requirements of a standard, shown by checks. Risk information standards and interoperability

Conformity assessment

The process of demonstrating that a high-risk AI system meets the requirements of the EU AI Act before it is placed on the market. AI assurance and audit

Consecutive disasters

Disasters that strike before recovery from an earlier one is complete, so vulnerability has changed. Multi-hazard and compound risk assessment

Consent-based data sharing

Sharing of personal data only with the informed agreement of the person concerned. Digital public infrastructure and digital identity

Contagion

The spread of distress from one institution or market to others. Financial stability and systemic financial risk

Content provenance

Information about where content came from and how it was changed. Information integrity and public trust

Contingency plan

A plan prepared in advance for a specific scenario, setting out roles, resources and actions. Preparedness, emergency and crisis management

Contingent credit

A credit line agreed in advance that can be drawn after a disaster. Disaster risk finance

Contingent liability

An obligation that arises only if a specific event occurs, such as a disaster or a guarantee being called. Public finance and sovereign debt

Continuous ranked probability score

A proper score for a forecast distribution of a continuous quantity, in the units of the quantity. Probabilistic forecasting and verification

Control testing

Checking that a control is designed well and operates as intended over a period. Assurance, internal control and risk culture

Coordinate reference system

The definition that ties coordinates to locations on the Earth. Geospatial analysis, Earth observation and GeoAI

Copula

A function that describes dependence between variables separately from their individual distributions. Actuarial science

Coronal mass ejection

A large release of magnetised plasma from the Sun that can drive a geomagnetic storm when it reaches the Earth. Space weather and extraterrestrial hazards

Cost-loss ratio

The ratio of the cost of acting to the loss avoided, which sets the probability above which acting on a forecast pays. Probabilistic forecasting and verification

Counterparty credit risk

The risk that the other party to a financial contract defaults before settlement. Banking and credit risk

Country risk

The combined economic, political and transfer risks of exposure to one country. Geopolitical and political risk

Coupling

A typed link through which a change in one system affects another. Nexus-Based Risk Management (NRM)

Credibility theory

Methods that blend a risk's own experience with wider data according to how reliable each is. Actuarial science

Critical ICT third-party provider

A technology provider designated under DORA whose failure could affect financial stability, overseen by the European Supervisory Authorities. Operational resilience and ICT risk in finance

Critical mineral

A mineral of high economic importance whose supply is at risk. Critical minerals, mining and extractives

Critical slowing down

The slower recovery from small perturbations as a system approaches a tipping point. Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems

Criticality

The importance of an asset or service, judged by the consequences of its loss. Critical infrastructure and lifelines

Crypto-agility

The ability to replace cryptographic algorithms in a system without redesigning it. Quantum technologies

Currency crisis

A sharp fall in a currency's value, often with capital outflows. Economic development and macroeconomic shocks

Cyber risk quantification

Expressing cyber risk as a distribution of financial loss, for example with the FAIR model. Cybersecurity and digital resilience

Cyber-physical system

A system in which computation and networking are tightly integrated with physical processes. Operational technology and cyber-physical security

D

Damage and loss

Damage is the destruction of physical assets; loss is the change in economic flows that follows. Recovery, reconstruction and loss accounting

Damage function

A relationship between warming or hazard intensity and economic loss used in macroeconomic and integrated assessment models. Macroeconomics of climate and disasters

Dangerous goods

Substances whose transport poses risks to people, property or the environment and is regulated. Technological, industrial and Natech hazards

Data assimilation

The combination of observations with a model to give the best estimate of the state of a system. Earth observation and Earth system data

Data centre tier

A classification of a data centre's redundancy in power and cooling. Telecommunications and digital infrastructure

Data leakage

Information from the test period or target entering training, which makes validation scores look better than real performance. AI and machine learning for risk analysis

Data licence

The terms under which data may be used, shared and adapted. Risk data governance, provenance and licensing

Data protection

Legal and technical safeguards for personal data. AI and digital governance

Data protection impact assessment

An assessment of the risks to people of processing their personal data, and how they are reduced. Compliance and regulatory change

Data sovereignty

The principle that data are subject to the laws and governance of the place or people they come from. Data infrastructure, compute and semiconductors

Data steward

The person responsible for the quality and proper use of a dataset. Risk data governance, provenance and licensing

Debt sustainability

A government's ability to meet its debt obligations without exceptional financing or major adjustment. Public finance and sovereign debt

Debt-for-nature swap

A restructuring of sovereign debt in which savings are committed to conservation. Nature and biodiversity finance

Declaration on Future Generations

A declaration annexed to the Pact for the Future adopted at the UN General Assembly in September 2024. Intergenerational governance and future generations

Deep uncertainty

A situation in which parties cannot agree on models, probabilities or the value of outcomes. Uncertainty and decision making

Delphi method

An iterative, anonymous survey of experts with controlled feedback between rounds. Expert judgement and elicitation

Demographic transition

The shift from high to low birth and death rates as societies develop. Human development, poverty and inequality

Desertification

Land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas caused by climate and human activity. Land, forests and soils

Deterrence

Discouraging an adversary from acting by the prospect of unacceptable costs. Security, defence and hybrid threats

Digital public infrastructure

Shared digital systems, such as identity, payments and data exchange, that enable services across society. Digital public infrastructure and digital identity

Digital twin

A model of a physical system kept in step with data from it, with stated limits. Complex systems and systems modelling

Digital twin of the Earth

A system that combines observations and high-resolution models to simulate and explore the Earth system interactively. Earth observation and Earth system data

Disaggregated data

Data broken down by sex, age, disability and other characteristics to show who is affected. Community resilience and inclusion

Disaster loss database

A systematic record of disaster events and their impacts over time and place. Recovery, reconstruction and loss accounting

Disaster risk

The potential loss of life, injury or damaged assets in a period, as a function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity. Disaster risk reduction

Discount rate

The rate at which future costs and benefits are reduced to present value, which sets how much the future counts. Intergenerational governance and future generations

Disinformation

False information spread deliberately to deceive. Information integrity and public trust

Distribution shift

A change between the data a model was trained on and the data it meets in use. Artificial intelligence and machine learning

Distributional impact

How the costs and benefits of a policy fall on different groups. Just transition, social and human rights risk

Do no harm

The principle that interventions should not worsen tensions or vulnerability. Conflict, fragility and security

Dose-response relationship

How the size of an effect changes with the amount of exposure to a substance. Pollution and environmental health

Double materiality

Considering both how sustainability issues affect a firm and how the firm affects people and the environment. Climate and nature financial risk

Downscaling

Methods that derive local or regional climate information from coarse global model output. Climate science, variability and change

Drift

Change in data or relationships that degrades a model over time. Model risk and validation

Dual-use item

A good, software or technology that can be used for both civilian and military or harmful purposes. Technology security: dual-use, export controls and compute governance

Dual-use research of concern

Life sciences research that could be misapplied to cause harm. Biotechnology, biosecurity and neurotechnology

Durable solution

An end to displacement through return, local integration or settlement elsewhere. Humanitarian action and displacement

Duty of care

An organisation's obligation to reduce foreseeable risks to its staff and partners. Conflict, fragility and security

E

Early action protocol

A plan that defines triggers, actions, roles and funding to act before a forecast hazard. Early warning and anticipatory action

Earth system resilience

The capacity of the Earth system to absorb disturbance and remain in a Holocene-like state. Planetary boundaries and Earth system resilience

Eco-anxiety

Distress related to awareness of environmental and climate change. Mental health and psychosocial risk

Ecological tipping point

A threshold beyond which an ecosystem shifts to a different state that is hard to reverse. Biodiversity and ecosystems

Economic coercion

The use of trade, investment or financial measures to pressure another state. Security, defence and hybrid threats

Economic resilience

The ability of an economy to absorb shocks and recover output and jobs. Economic development and macroeconomic shocks

Economic statecraft

The use of economic tools, such as sanctions or export limits, to pursue political aims. Geopolitical and political risk

Ecosystem integrity

The ability of an ecosystem to keep its structure, composition and functions within their natural range of variation. Biodiversity and ecosystems

Ecosystem services

The benefits people obtain from ecosystems, such as food, clean water, flood regulation and pollination. Biodiversity and ecosystems

Edge computing

Processing data close to where it is produced instead of in a central data centre. Data infrastructure, compute and semiconductors

Effective reproduction number

The average number of secondary infections caused by one infected person at a given time, written Rt. Epidemic modelling and forecasting

eLoran

An enhanced terrestrial long-range radio navigation system proposed as a backup to GNSS. Positioning, navigation and timing resilience

Embedded water

The water used to produce a good, also called virtual water. Water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus

Emergence

System behaviour that arises from interactions and is not visible in the parts alone. Complex systems and systems modelling

Emulator

A fast statistical or machine-learning model trained to reproduce the outputs of a slower physical or catastrophe model. AI and machine learning for risk analysis

End-use control

A restriction based on how and by whom an item will be used, not only on what it is. Technology security: dual-use, export controls and compute governance

Energy security

The uninterrupted availability of energy at an affordable price. Energy systems and the energy transition

Energy storage

Technologies that store energy for later use, such as batteries and pumped hydro. Energy systems and the energy transition

Environmental and social safeguards

Policies that require projects to identify and manage environmental and social risks. Development finance

Epistemic state

A label stating whether a value is observed, modelled, estimated or unknown. Risk information standards and interoperability

Essential Climate Variable

A physical, chemical or biological variable that GCOS defines as critical to characterising the Earth's climate. Earth observation and Earth system data

Essential health services

The services a health system must maintain in all circumstances. Health systems and health care resilience

Evaluation awareness

A model behaving differently when it detects that it is being tested. AI safety and evaluation

Event attribution

The assessment of how climate change has altered the likelihood or intensity of a specific extreme event. Climate science, variability and change

Event set

A large collection of simulated events that represents possible hazard occurrences. Catastrophe, exposure and vulnerability modelling

Event-based surveillance

The rapid capture of reports about potential health events from many sources. Public health emergencies and epidemics

Evidence synthesis

Bringing together the findings of many studies in a structured way. Research, evidence and the science-policy interface

Exceedance probability

The probability that a loss or hazard exceeds a given level in a period. Quantitative risk analysis and statistics

Exceedance probability curve

A curve showing the probability that losses exceed each level. Catastrophe, exposure and vulnerability modelling

Exclusion error

The failure of a system to reach people who are entitled to a service. Digital public infrastructure and digital identity

Existential risk

A risk that threatens the survival of humanity or its long-term potential. Global catastrophic risks

Expected shortfall

The average loss in the cases worse than a value-at-risk threshold. Market, liquidity and treasury risk

Expert elicitation

A structured process for obtaining and combining expert judgements. Uncertainty and decision making

Explainability

The degree to which people can understand why a model produced an output. Model risk and validation

Export control

A legal restriction on sending certain goods, software or technology abroad. Technology security: dual-use, export controls and compute governance

Exposure

The people, assets and activities located where hazards can affect them. Catastrophe, exposure and vulnerability modelling

Exposure at default

The amount owed at the time of default. Banking and credit risk

Exposure pathway

The route by which a pollutant moves from its source to a person or ecosystem. Pollution and environmental health

Extreme value theory

Statistical theory for the behaviour of the largest or smallest values. Quantitative risk analysis and statistics

F

Failure modes and effects analysis

A structured review of how each component can fail and what follows from each failure. Reliability, safety and resilience engineering

FAIR principles

Guidance that data should be findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable. Risk data governance, provenance and licensing

False alarm ratio

The share of warnings that were not followed by the warned event. Early warning and anticipatory action

Fault tree

A diagram that traces how combinations of component failures lead to a defined top event. Reliability, safety and resilience engineering

Feedback loop

A chain of effects that returns to influence its starting point, amplifying or damping change. Complex systems and systems modelling

Fiduciary duty

The legal duty to act in the best interests of the beneficiaries whose money is managed. Asset management, private markets and institutional investors

Financed emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions linked to a financial institution's lending and investment. Climate and nature financial risk

Financial market infrastructure

A system for clearing, settling or recording payments, securities or derivatives. Payments, market infrastructure and fintech

Fire sale

Forced selling of assets at depressed prices, which spreads losses to other holders. Financial stability and systemic financial risk

Fire weather index

A rating of fire danger from weather conditions and fuel moisture. Heat, drought and wildfire

Fiscal risk statement

A government report that discloses the main risks to its public finances. Public finance and sovereign debt

Fiscal space

Room in a budget to spend or cut taxes without endangering sustainability. Public finance and sovereign debt

Flash flood

A rapid flood that follows intense rain within a few hours, often in steep or urban catchments. Floods, storms and tropical cyclones

Food security

A situation in which all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food, assessed through availability, access, utilisation and stability. Food systems and agriculture

Force majeure

A contract clause that excuses performance when extraordinary events prevent it. Contracts, intellectual property and licensing

Forecast hub

A platform that collects, scores and combines forecasts from many modelling teams. Epidemic modelling and forecasting

Foundation model

A large model pre-trained on broad data and adapted to many downstream tasks, such as geospatial models trained on satellite imagery. AI and machine learning for risk analysis

Foundational identity

A general-purpose identity system that other services can rely on. Digital public infrastructure and digital identity

Fragility

A combination of exposure to risk and insufficient capacity of the state, system or communities to manage it. Conflict, fragility and security

Fragility curve

A function giving the probability of reaching a damage state for a given hazard intensity. Catastrophe, exposure and vulnerability modelling

Free, prior and informed consent

The right of Indigenous Peoples to give or withhold consent to projects affecting them. Just transition, social and human rights risk

Frontier model

A general-purpose AI model at or near the most capable level available at a given time. AI safety and evaluation

Functional safety

Safety that depends on control systems working correctly in response to their inputs. Advanced industry, manufacturing and materials

Funding liquidity

The ability to meet obligations as they fall due without unacceptable cost. Market, liquidity and treasury risk

Future generations commissioner

An independent office that holds public bodies to account for the long-term effects of their decisions, as in Wales since 2016. Intergenerational governance and future generations

Futures literacy

The capacity to use ideas about the future to understand the present. Foresight and futures

G

GeoAI

The use of machine learning on spatial and Earth observation data. Geospatial analysis, Earth observation and GeoAI

Geoeconomic fragmentation

The splitting of the world economy into blocs through trade, investment and technology restrictions. Trade, supply chains and geoeconomics

Geomagnetic storm

A disturbance of the Earth's magnetosphere, graded G1 to G5 on the NOAA scale. Space weather and extraterrestrial hazards

Geomagnetically induced current

A quasi-direct current driven in long conductors such as power lines by a changing geomagnetic field. Space weather and extraterrestrial hazards

Geopolitical fragmentation

The division of the world economy into rival blocs with fewer shared rules and less trade between them. Geopolitical and political risk

Glacial lake outburst flood

The sudden release of water from a lake dammed by ice or a moraine. Cryosphere and mountain systems

Glacier mass balance

The net gain or loss of ice of a glacier over a year, the basic measure of its health. Cryosphere and mountain systems

Global catastrophic risk

A risk that could cause severe harm to human well-being on a global scale. Global catastrophic risks

Global commons

Resources and areas beyond national jurisdiction, such as the high seas and the atmosphere. Diplomacy, cooperation and the global commons

Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management

An international standard for the safe management of tailings facilities. Critical minerals, mining and extractives

Global navigation satellite system

Satellite constellations that provide positioning, navigation and timing worldwide. Space systems, space weather and navigation

Global Preparedness Monitoring Board

An independent body that monitors preparedness for health emergencies and reports each year. Global health governance

Global risk assessment

A structured appraisal of the likelihood and impact of risks of global scale, from surveys, models or indicators. Polycrisis and global risk assessment

GNSS

Global navigation satellite systems, such as GPS, Galileo, GLONASS and BeiDou. Positioning, navigation and timing resilience

Graceful degradation

The ability of a system to keep providing a reduced service when parts of it fail. Reliability, safety and resilience engineering

Green-blue infrastructure

Networks of vegetation and water features that provide drainage, cooling and other services. Cities, housing and the built environment

Grey zone

Competition between states that stays below the threshold that would trigger a conventional military response. Security, defence and hybrid threats

Grid balancing

Keeping electricity supply and demand matched in real time to hold frequency stable. Energy systems and the energy transition

Grid-forming inverter

An inverter that sets voltage and frequency itself, so that it can support a grid with few synchronous machines. Energy transition risk and grid integration

Grievance mechanism

A process through which affected people can raise concerns and seek remedy. Just transition, social and human rights risk

Ground truth

In situ measurements used to train or validate a product derived from remote sensing. Earth observation and Earth system data

H

Hallucination

Output from a generative model that is fluent but false or unsupported. Artificial intelligence and machine learning

Harvest now, decrypt later

The threat that encrypted data captured today could be decrypted once quantum computers mature. Quantum technologies

Hazard Information Profile

A standard definition of a hazard in the UNDRR and ISC classification, revised in 2025. Multi-hazard and compound risk assessment

Hazard interaction

A relationship in which one hazard triggers, amplifies or coincides with another. Multi-hazard and compound risk assessment

Health co-benefit

A health gain that results from a climate mitigation measure, such as cleaner air from less combustion. Climate and health

Health EDRM

The WHO framework for health emergency and disaster risk management across all hazards. Biological and epidemic hazards in disaster risk management

Heat action plan

A plan that sets warning thresholds, roles and protective actions for heat events. Heat, drought and wildfire

Heat-health warning system

A system that issues alerts when forecast temperatures are expected to raise health risk, linked to protective actions. Climate and health

Hierarchy of controls

An ordered set of ways to reduce exposure, from elimination and substitution to protective equipment. Pollution and environmental health

High-performance computing

Aggregated computing power used for large simulations and data analysis. Data infrastructure, compute and semiconductors

Holdover

The time a clock or receiver keeps accurate timing after losing its satellite signal. Space systems, space weather and navigation

Horizon scanning

Systematic searching for early signs of change that could matter in the future. Foresight and futures

Hospital safety index

A tool that assesses whether a hospital is likely to keep functioning in an emergency. Health systems and health care resilience

Human development

The expansion of people's freedoms and capabilities to live lives they value. Human development, poverty and inequality

Human factors

How people interact with tasks, equipment and organisations, and how this affects safety and performance. Work, skills and occupational safety

Human mobility

The movement of people within or across borders, voluntary or forced, temporary or permanent. Migration and human mobility

Human oversight

Arrangements that let people monitor, understand and intervene in an AI system's operation. Artificial intelligence and machine learning

Human rights due diligence

The ongoing process of identifying, preventing and accounting for human rights impacts. Just transition, social and human rights risk

Human security

Freedom from fear, freedom from want and freedom to live in dignity, focused on the protection and empowerment of people. Conflict, fragility and security

Human-machine teaming

Work in which people and autonomous systems share tasks and decisions. Robotics and autonomous systems

Humanitarian principles

Humanity, neutrality, impartiality and independence, which guide humanitarian action. Humanitarian action and displacement

Hybrid threat

Coordinated use of military and non-military means, such as sabotage, cyber attacks and disinformation, below the threshold of open war. Security, defence and hybrid threats

Hydraulic model

A model of pressures and flows in a pipe network used to plan and operate it. Water and wastewater systems

Hysteresis

The property that a system does not return to its earlier state when the driver is reversed. Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems

I

IHR core capacities

The public health functions countries maintain under the International Health Regulations to detect and respond to events. Public health emergencies and epidemics

Impact assessment

A structured analysis of how an AI system may affect individuals, groups and society, as in ISO/IEC 42005:2025. AI assurance and audit

Impact tolerance

The maximum tolerable disruption to an important business service. Operational resilience and ICT risk in finance

Impact-based forecast

A forecast that states what the weather or hazard is expected to do to people and assets, not only what it will be. Early warning and anticipatory action

Implementation gap

The difference between what a policy intends and what happens in practice. Risk-informed public policy

Incident command system

A standard structure for command, operations, planning, logistics and finance in an emergency response. Preparedness, emergency and crisis management

Indemnity

A promise to compensate another party for specified losses. Contracts, intellectual property and licensing

Indigenous and local knowledge

Knowledge built by communities through long observation of their environment and its hazards. Community resilience and inclusion

Industrial control system

Systems such as SCADA and programmable controllers that run industrial processes. Advanced industry, manufacturing and materials

INFORM Risk Index

An open composite index of the risk of humanitarian crises and disasters. Risk indicators and composite indices

Informal settlement

A residential area built without formal land rights or planning approval, often with limited services. Cities, housing and the built environment

Information operation

A coordinated effort to influence an audience, often through deceptive means. Information integrity and public trust

Inherent and residual risk

Risk before and after controls are applied. Enterprise risk management and risk frameworks

Inoperability

The proportion by which a sector's output falls short of its planned level after a disruption. Supply network and economic contagion

Input-output model

A model of how sectors buy from and sell to each other, used to trace shocks through an economy. Trade, supply chains and geoeconomics

Institutional capability

The skills, resources and systems an institution needs to carry out its mandate. Risk governance and institutions

Institutional trust

The confidence people place in institutions to act competently and in good faith. Information integrity and public trust

Integrated surveillance

Joint monitoring of human, animal and environmental health data. One Health, zoonoses and antimicrobial resistance

Integrated water resources management

A process that coordinates the development and management of water, land and related resources across sectors. Water security and hydrology

Interdependency

A two-way relationship in which the state of one infrastructure depends on another, through physical, cyber, geographic or logical links. Critical infrastructure and lifelines

Intergenerational equity

Fairness in the distribution of costs, benefits and risks between generations. Intergenerational governance and future generations

Intermodal transport

Moving freight in one unit, such as a container, across ships, rail and road. Transport, ports and logistics

Internal control

A process designed to provide reasonable confidence that objectives on operations, reporting and compliance are met. Assurance, internal control and risk culture

Internally displaced person

A person forced to leave home who has not crossed an international border. Humanitarian action and displacement

International Health Regulations

The binding international instrument for detecting, assessing, notifying and responding to public health events. Global health governance

Internet exchange point

A facility where networks interconnect to exchange traffic directly. Telecommunications and digital infrastructure

Interoperability

The ability of systems to exchange and use information through agreed standards. Digital public infrastructure and digital identity

Invasive alien species

A species introduced outside its natural range whose spread threatens native biodiversity or livelihoods. Biodiversity and ecosystems

Inverter-based resource

A generator or storage unit connected through power electronics, such as solar, wind or batteries. Energy transition risk and grid integration

Investment screening

A government review of foreign investment in sensitive sectors for security risk. Technology security: dual-use, export controls and compute governance

IPC phase classification

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification scale that groups areas or households by the severity of food insecurity. Food systems and agriculture

J

Jamming

Transmitting radio noise that prevents a receiver from tracking GNSS signals. Positioning, navigation and timing resilience

Joint return period

The average interval between events in which two variables both exceed their thresholds, which depends on their dependence. Multi-hazard and compound risk assessment

Just transition

A shift to a low-carbon economy that is fair to workers and communities and leaves no one behind. Just transition, social and human rights risk

Just-in-time production

Production that keeps minimal inventory and relies on timely deliveries. Advanced industry, manufacturing and materials

K

Key risk indicator

A metric that signals a change in the level of a risk. Operational risk and business continuity

Know your customer

Verifying customers' identities and understanding their activities. Financial crime and fraud

Knowledge translation

Moving research findings into practice and policy. Research, evidence and the science-policy interface

Kp index

A planetary index from 0 to 9 of geomagnetic activity over three-hour intervals. Space weather and extraterrestrial hazards

Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

The global framework of goals and targets for biodiversity agreed in 2022. Climate and nature governance

L

Lahar

A flow of volcanic debris and water that can travel far down river valleys. Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and landslides

Land degradation neutrality

A state in which the amount and quality of land resources stay stable or increase within an area and time. Land, forests and soils

Land tenure

The rules and relationships that define who can use land, for how long and under what conditions. Land, forests and soils

Land-use change

The conversion of land from one use to another, such as forest to cropland. Land, forests and soils

Land-use zoning

Regulation that sets what land may be used for and how intensively. Cities, housing and the built environment

Layer of protection analysis

A semi-quantitative method that tests whether independent safeguards reduce a scenario's risk enough. Technological, industrial and Natech hazards

Lead time

The time between a warning and the onset of the hazard. Early warning and anticipatory action

LEAP approach

The TNFD process to locate, evaluate, assess and prepare for nature-related issues. Nature and biodiversity finance

Licence compatibility

Whether works under different licences can be combined and shared lawfully. Contracts, intellectual property and licensing

Lineage

The path of data through processing steps from source to output. Risk data governance, provenance and licensing

Liquefaction

Loss of strength in saturated soil during shaking, causing it to behave like a liquid. Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and landslides

Liquidity coverage ratio

A Basel standard requiring enough liquid assets to cover a short stress period. Banking and credit risk

Longevity risk

The risk that people live longer than assumed, increasing pension and annuity costs. Actuarial science

Loss and damage

In climate policy, the impacts of climate change that adaptation does not avoid. Recovery, reconstruction and loss accounting

Loss distribution

A probability distribution of the size or total of losses over a period. Actuarial science

Loss event

An operational failure that results in a financial or non-financial loss. Operational risk and business continuity

Loss given default

The share of an exposure lost when a borrower defaults. Banking and credit risk

Loss-of-load expectation

The expected number of hours or days in a period when demand cannot be met. Energy transition risk and grid integration

Low-probability, high-impact event

An event that is unlikely in any year but would have very large consequences. Global catastrophic risks

M

Macroprudential policy

Policy that targets risks to the financial system as a whole. Financial stability and systemic financial risk

Magnitude and intensity

Magnitude measures the size of an earthquake at its source, related to the energy it releases; intensity describes the shaking and damage at a place. Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and landslides

Major accident hazard

The potential for a release, fire or explosion at an installation that seriously harms people or the environment. Technological, industrial and Natech hazards

Mandate

The formal authority and responsibilities given to an institution. Risk governance and institutions

Margin call

A demand for more collateral when the value of a position or its collateral falls. Market, liquidity and treasury risk

Marine heatwave

A prolonged period of unusually warm sea temperatures at a location. Oceans and coasts

Mark-to-model

Valuing an asset with a model when no reliable market price exists. Asset management, private markets and institutional investors

Market liquidity

The ease of trading an asset quickly without moving its price. Market, liquidity and treasury risk

Mean time to repair

The average time needed to restore a failed component or system. Reliability, safety and resilience engineering

Measurement, reporting and verification

The process of quantifying a climate outcome, reporting it and having it checked independently. Climate and energy technologies

Medical countermeasure

A vaccine, therapeutic or diagnostic used against a health threat. Biotechnology, biosecurity and neurotechnology

Mental models approach

Designing communication from how people already understand a hazard. Risk communication and risk literacy

Metadata

Data that describe other data, such as source, coverage and licence. Risk data governance, provenance and licensing

Metadata profile

A set of rules on which metadata fields to use and how. Risk information standards and interoperability

MHPSS

Mental health and psychosocial support: any support that protects or promotes psychosocial well-being or treats mental disorder. Mental health and psychosocial risk

Migration governance

The laws, policies and cooperation that shape how people move and are protected. Migration and human mobility

Mine closure plan

A plan for decommissioning, rehabilitation and long-term care of a mine site. Critical minerals, mining and extractives

Minimal risk condition

A stable, safe state an autonomous system moves to when it cannot continue its task. Robotics and autonomous systems

Misinformation

False or misleading information shared without intent to deceive. Information integrity and public trust

Modal shift

A change in the share of traffic carried by each transport mode. Transport, ports and logistics

Model evaluation

Testing an AI model's capabilities, reliability and risks against defined tasks and criteria. Artificial intelligence and machine learning

Model intercomparison

Running several models on the same experiment to compare results and uncertainty. Complex systems and systems modelling

Model inventory

A register of models in use with their owners, purposes and validation status. Model risk and validation

Model risk

The potential for loss or poor decisions from errors in models or their misuse. Model risk and validation

Money laundering

Disguising the criminal origin of funds so they appear legitimate. Financial crime and fraud

Monte Carlo simulation

Estimating outcomes by sampling many random scenarios from input distributions. Quantitative risk analysis and statistics

Multidimensional poverty

Poverty measured across several deprivations, such as health, education and living standards. Human development, poverty and inequality

Multilateralism

Cooperation among three or more states, often through international institutions. Diplomacy, cooperation and the global commons

Municipal risk register

A city's record of its risks, owners and treatments. Cities, housing and the built environment

Mutual aid

Pre-agreed arrangements for organisations or jurisdictions to share resources in an emergency. Preparedness, emergency and crisis management

N

Natech event

A technological accident triggered by a natural hazard, such as a chemical release during a flood. Technological, industrial and Natech hazards

National adaptation plan

A process for identifying medium- and long-term adaptation needs and integrating them into planning. Climate and nature governance

Nationally determined contribution

A country's climate action plan under the Paris Agreement. Climate and nature governance

Natural frequencies

Expressing probabilities as counts, such as 1 in 100, which are easier to understand. Risk communication and risk literacy

Nature-based solutions

Actions that protect, manage or restore ecosystems to address a societal challenge while benefiting biodiversity. Biodiversity and ecosystems

Nature-related dependency

A reliance of an organisation on an ecosystem service, such as water supply or pollination. Biodiversity and ecosystems

Nature-related financial risk

Risk to firms and financial institutions from their dependence and impact on nature, through physical and transition channels. Nature and biodiversity finance

Near-Earth object

An asteroid or comet whose orbit brings it close to the Earth. Global catastrophic risks

Network centrality

Measures of how important a node is in a network, such as degree or betweenness. Complex systems and systems modelling

Network criticality

How much a link or node matters to the performance of the whole transport network. Transport, ports and logistics

Nexus-Based Risk Management

The Academy's frame for managing interconnected risk across entities, sectors, systems, regions and the planet. Nexus-Based Risk Management (NRM)

Non-pharmaceutical intervention

A public health measure other than vaccines or medicines, such as distancing or ventilation. Public health emergencies and epidemics

Non-revenue water

Water produced but not billed, through leakage, metering error or unauthorised use. Water and wastewater systems

Normalisation

Rescaling indicators to a common basis before they are combined. Risk indicators and composite indices

Novel entities

New substances, modified life forms and materials introduced by people, such as synthetic chemicals and plastics. Planetary boundaries and Earth system resilience

Nowcasting

Estimating the current state of an epidemic while accounting for delays in reporting. Epidemic modelling and forecasting

NRM profile

A structured description of a nexus system, its couplings, exposures and evidence. Nexus-Based Risk Management (NRM)

O

Occupational health and safety management system

A framework for managing workplace health and safety risks, such as ISO 45001. Work, skills and occupational safety

Ocean acidification

The fall in seawater pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Oceans and coasts

One Health

An integrated, unifying approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimise the health of people, animals and ecosystems. One Health, zoonoses and antimicrobial resistance

Open finance

Customer-permitted sharing of financial data with third-party providers. Payments, market infrastructure and fintech

Open licence

A licence that lets others use, share and adapt a work under stated conditions. Contracts, intellectual property and licensing

Operational design domain

The conditions, such as roads, weather or speeds, under which an autonomous system is designed to work. Robotics and autonomous systems

Operational resilience

The ability of a firm to prevent, adapt to, respond to, recover from and learn from operational disruption. Operational resilience and ICT risk in finance

Operational technology

Hardware and software that monitor and control physical equipment and processes. Advanced industry, manufacturing and materials

Optimism bias

The tendency to believe that one is less likely than others to suffer harm. Risk perception and behavioural science

Orbital debris

Defunct satellites and fragments in orbit that threaten operating spacecraft. Space systems, space weather and navigation

Overconfidence

Stating ranges that are too narrow, so that true values fall outside them more often than stated. Expert judgement and elicitation

P

PABS annex

The pathogen access and benefit-sharing annex whose adoption is required before the Pandemic Agreement can open for signature. Global health governance

Pandemic emergency

The alert level added to the IHR by the 2024 amendments, in force since 19 September 2025. Global health governance

Parametric trigger

A payout rule based on a measured hazard parameter rather than assessed loss. Disaster risk finance

Participatory risk assessment

An assessment in which community members identify hazards, vulnerabilities and capacities themselves. Community resilience and inclusion

Patient safety

The prevention of avoidable harm to patients during care. Health systems and health care resilience

Peak ground acceleration

The largest ground acceleration recorded or expected at a site during shaking. Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and landslides

Peak water

The point after which glacier meltwater supply declines as the glacier shrinks. Cryosphere and mountain systems

Percolation

The process by which a network fragments as nodes or links are removed, used to measure robustness. Supply network and economic contagion

Permafrost

Ground that stays at or below freezing for at least two consecutive years. Climate science, variability and change

Permanence

How long removed or avoided carbon stays out of the atmosphere, and the risk that it returns. Climate and energy technologies

Persistent identifier

An identifier that stays the same and resolvable even when the resource moves. Risk information standards and interoperability

Persistent organic pollutant

A toxic chemical that resists degradation, accumulates in organisms and travels long distances. Pollution and environmental health

Physical risk

Financial risk from the physical effects of climate change, acute or chronic. Climate and nature financial risk

Planetary boundary

A quantified limit for an Earth system process within which humanity can continue to develop with low risk of large-scale change. Planetary boundaries and Earth system resilience

Planned relocation

A managed move of a community away from a place at high risk, with support to settle elsewhere. Migration and human mobility

Platform work

Paid work organised through online platforms. Work, skills and occupational safety

Plausibility

Whether a scenario could credibly occur given current knowledge. Scenario analysis and stress testing

Pluvial flood

Flooding caused directly by intense rainfall that exceeds drainage capacity, away from rivers. Floods, storms and tropical cyclones

PM2.5

Particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometres or less, the air pollutant most linked to health loss. Atmosphere and air chemistry

Policy coherence

The degree to which policies in different areas support rather than undermine each other. Risk-informed public policy

Policy cycle

The stages of agenda setting, design, adoption, implementation and evaluation. Risk-informed public policy

Political risk

The risk that political decisions or instability change the value or viability of an activity. Geopolitical and political risk

Polycrisis

A situation in which several crises interact so that their combined harm exceeds the sum of each. Polycrisis and global risk assessment

Positive tipping point

A threshold beyond which a desirable change, such as a technology's adoption, becomes self-reinforcing. Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems

Post-disaster needs assessment

A government-led assessment of damage, losses and recovery needs after a disaster. Recovery, reconstruction and loss accounting

Post-market monitoring

The collection and review of data on an AI system's performance after deployment. AI assurance and audit

Post-quantum cryptography

Public-key algorithms designed to resist attack by quantum computers. Quantum technologies

Post-traumatic stress disorder

A disorder that can follow exposure to a traumatic event, marked by intrusion, avoidance and hyperarousal. Mental health and psychosocial risk

Power usage effectiveness

The ratio of a data centre's total energy use to the energy used by its computing equipment. Data infrastructure, compute and semiconductors

Prebunking

Warning people about misleading techniques before they meet them. Risk communication and risk literacy

Precautionary principle

Acting to prevent serious harm when evidence is incomplete. Risk-informed public policy

Price transmission

The extent to which price changes in one market pass to other markets or along the supply chain. Food systems and agriculture

Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures

International standards for payment, clearing and settlement systems. Payments, market infrastructure and fintech

Private credit

Lending to companies by non-bank investors outside public bond markets. Asset management, private markets and institutional investors

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

A method that combines all possible earthquakes to estimate the probability of exceeding a shaking level. Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and landslides

Probability of default

The likelihood that a borrower fails to meet its obligations over a period. Banking and credit risk

Probable maximum loss

A large loss at a stated return period or probability. Catastrophe, exposure and vulnerability modelling

Productivity

Output per unit of input, such as per worker or per hour. Economic development and macroeconomic shocks

Project finance

Financing a project on the strength of its own cash flows. Development finance

Proper scoring rule

A score that is optimised in expectation only when the forecaster reports their true probability, such as the Brier score or CRPS. Probabilistic forecasting and verification

Proportionality

Applying rules in proportion to an institution's size, complexity and risk. Financial regulation and supervision

Prospective risk management

Measures that avoid creating new risk, as distinct from corrective and compensatory measures. Disaster risk reduction

Protection gap

The difference between total and insured losses. Insurance, reinsurance and protection gaps

Protective action

A step people take to reduce harm, such as evacuating or sheltering. Risk perception and behavioural science

PROV-O

The W3C provenance ontology for describing how data were produced. Risk information standards and interoperability

Provenance

The record of where data came from and how they were produced. Risk data governance, provenance and licensing

Prudential regulation

Rules that keep financial institutions safe and sound, such as capital and liquidity requirements. Financial regulation and supervision

Psychological first aid

Humane, supportive and practical help for people in distress after a crisis. Mental health and psychosocial risk

Psychosocial risk

A hazard at work arising from how work is organised and managed, such as excessive demands or harassment. Mental health and psychosocial risk

Public health emergency of international concern

A declaration under the IHR for an extraordinary event that may spread internationally. Public health emergencies and epidemics

Q

Quadripartite

The cooperation of FAO, UNEP, WHO and WOAH on One Health. One Health, zoonoses and antimicrobial resistance

Quantum advantage

A task on which a quantum computer outperforms the best classical methods. Quantum technologies

Quantum key distribution

A method that uses quantum properties to share encryption keys and detect interception. Quantum technologies

Qubit

The basic unit of quantum information, which can be in a superposition of states. Quantum technologies

R

Radiative forcing

The change in the Earth's energy balance caused by a change in a driver such as a greenhouse gas or aerosol. Atmosphere and air chemistry

Ransomware

Malware that encrypts or steals data and demands payment. Cybersecurity and digital resilience

Raster and vector data

Grids of cells and geometric features, the two main forms of spatial data. Geospatial analysis, Earth observation and GeoAI

Reactive power

The component of power that sustains voltage in alternating current networks without doing net work. Energy transition risk and grid integration

Reanalysis

A consistent reconstruction of past weather and climate that combines observations with a fixed model and data assimilation. Earth observation and Earth system data

Recovery framework

A plan that sets recovery priorities, institutions, financing and sequencing. Recovery, reconstruction and loss accounting

Recovery time objective

The target time to restore a system or service after an incident. Cybersecurity and digital resilience

Red-teaming

Structured attempts to make a system fail or misbehave, to find weaknesses before others do. AI safety and evaluation

Redundancy

Spare capacity or alternative routes that keep a service running when a component fails. Critical infrastructure and lifelines

Regime shift

A large, persistent change in the structure and function of a system. Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems

Regulated word

A word, such as bank or insurance, that may describe a subject but not the identity of an unlicensed body. Contracts, intellectual property and licensing

Regulatory capture

When an institution comes to serve the interests it is meant to oversee. Risk governance and institutions

Regulatory change management

The process of finding new or changed rules, assessing their effect and putting the changes in place. Compliance and regulatory change

Regulatory impact assessment

A structured appraisal of the likely effects of a proposed regulation. Risk-informed public policy

Regulatory sandbox

A framework that lets firms test innovations under supervision and with safeguards. Financial regulation and supervision

Reinsurance treaty

An agreement under which a reinsurer accepts a share of an insurer's portfolio. Insurance, reinsurance and protection gaps

Relative sea-level rise

The change in sea level relative to the land, combining ocean rise with land subsidence or uplift. Oceans and coasts

Reliability

The probability that a system performs its required function under stated conditions for a stated period. Reliability, safety and resilience engineering

Reliability diagram

A plot of observed frequency against forecast probability by bin, the standard check of calibration. Probabilistic forecasting and verification

Remediation

Action to correct a compliance failure and prevent it recurring. Compliance and regulatory change

Remittances

Money that migrants send to families or communities in their place of origin. Migration and human mobility

Reproducibility

Obtaining the same results from the same data and methods. Research, evidence and the science-policy interface

Reproducible pipeline

A documented, versioned sequence of data and code steps that others can rerun. Data infrastructure, compute and semiconductors

Reputational risk

The risk of loss from damage to the trust that stakeholders place in an organisation. Assurance, internal control and risk culture

Research integrity

Honesty, accountability and rigour in research. Research, evidence and the science-policy interface

Research security

Measures that protect research from misappropriation while keeping it open. Technology security: dual-use, export controls and compute governance

Residual risk

The disaster risk that remains even when effective risk reduction measures are in place. Disaster risk reduction

Resilience

The ability of a system, community or society to resist, absorb, adapt to and recover from a hazard in a timely way. Community resilience and inclusion

Resilience engineering

Design and operation that let systems keep functioning and recover under unexpected conditions. Critical infrastructure and lifelines

Reskilling

Learning new skills to move into a different job or role. Work, skills and occupational safety

Resolution

The orderly restructuring or wind-down of a failing financial institution. Financial stability and systemic financial risk

Resource adequacy

Whether a power system has enough capacity to meet demand at all times with a stated reliability. Energy systems and the energy transition

Resource curse

The pattern in which resource wealth is linked to weaker growth or governance. Critical minerals, mining and extractives

Responsible research and innovation

An approach that aligns research and innovation with society's values, needs and expectations. Innovation and frontier technology governance

Restoration time

The time needed to return a service to an agreed level after disruption. Critical infrastructure and lifelines

Retrocession

Reinsurance bought by reinsurers. Insurance, reinsurance and protection gaps

Return period

The average interval between events of at least a given size; a statement about probability, not a schedule. Floods, storms and tropical cyclones

Reverse stress test

Identifying the scenarios that would cause a system or business to fail. Scenario analysis and stress testing

Risk appetite

The amount and type of risk an organisation is willing to pursue or retain. Enterprise risk management and risk frameworks

Risk criteria

The terms of reference against which the significance of a risk is evaluated. Enterprise risk management and risk frameworks

Risk culture

The shared values, beliefs and behaviours that shape how people in an organisation take and manage risk. Assurance, internal control and risk culture

Risk governance

The institutions, rules and processes by which decisions about risk are taken and implemented. Risk governance and institutions

Risk interconnection map

A network of global risks linked by the influence each is judged to have on others. Polycrisis and global risk assessment

Risk layering

Matching financing instruments to events of different frequency and severity. Disaster risk finance

Risk literacy

The ability to understand and act on information about risk. Risk communication and risk literacy

Risk matrix

A grid of likelihood and consequence categories, useful for screening but coarse for decisions. Quantitative risk analysis and statistics

Risk owner

The person accountable for managing a risk. Enterprise risk management and risk frameworks

Risk perception

People's intuitive judgement of a risk, shaped by experience, values and trust. Risk communication and risk literacy

Risk pool

An arrangement in which several parties share the cost of covering their risks. Disaster risk finance

Risk register

A record of identified risks with their owners, assessments and treatments. Enterprise risk management and risk frameworks

Risk-based approach

Applying controls in proportion to assessed money laundering and terrorist financing risk, as set out by the FATF. Financial crime and fraud

Risk-based regulation

Regulation that sets obligations in proportion to the risk a system poses. AI and digital governance

Risk-informed development

Development that takes hazard and risk information into account so that it does not create new risk. Disaster risk reduction

Risk-weighted assets

Assets weighted by their risk, used to set minimum capital under the Basel framework. Banking and credit risk

Robust decision making

Choosing options that perform acceptably across many plausible futures. Uncertainty and decision making

Robustness

The ability of a model to keep performing under noise, change or adversarial input. Artificial intelligence and machine learning

Route diversity

Carrying traffic over physically separate paths so that one cut does not stop the service. Telecommunications and digital infrastructure

S

Safe operating space

The region within all planetary boundaries. Planetary boundaries and Earth system resilience

Safety case

A structured argument, with evidence, that a system is acceptably safe for a given use. Technological, industrial and Natech hazards

Saffir-Simpson scale

A scale that classifies hurricanes by sustained wind speed. Floods, storms and tropical cyclones

Sanctions

Restrictions imposed by states or international bodies on trade, finance or travel to change behaviour. Geopolitical and political risk

Sanctions screening

Checking customers and transactions against sanctions lists. Financial crime and fraud

SCADA

Supervisory control and data acquisition: systems that monitor and control distributed industrial assets. Operational technology and cyber-physical security

Scenario

A coherent, plausible description of a possible future used to test plans and exposures. Scenario analysis and stress testing

Scenario narrative

The storyline that explains how a scenario unfolds. Scenario analysis and stress testing

Science diplomacy

The use of scientific cooperation to support relations between states and to inform foreign policy. Diplomacy, cooperation and the global commons

Scope ladder

The five levels at which risk is managed: entity, sector, system of systems, regional and planetary. Nexus-Based Risk Management (NRM)

Sea ice extent

The area of ocean with at least a threshold concentration of sea ice. Cryosphere and mountain systems

Secondary uncertainty

Uncertainty in the loss given that an event occurs. Catastrophe, exposure and vulnerability modelling

Security level

In IEC 62443, a measure of the resistance of a zone or component to attackers of increasing capability. Operational technology and cyber-physical security

Seed question

A question whose answer is known to the analyst but not the experts, used to score expert performance. Expert judgement and elicitation

SEIR model

A compartmental model that divides a population into susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered. Epidemic modelling and forecasting

Sensitivity analysis

Testing how an index changes when its assumptions change. Risk indicators and composite indices

Serial interval

The time between symptom onset in a case and in the person they infected. Epidemic modelling and forecasting

Settlement finality

The point at which a transfer becomes irrevocable. Payments, market infrastructure and fintech

Shared exposure

An exposure that many entities hold in common, such as a single supplier or a shared river. Nexus-Based Risk Management (NRM)

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Scenario narratives of future society used with emissions scenarios to drive climate projections. Climate science, variability and change

Sharpness

How concentrated a forecast distribution is, judged only once calibration holds. Probabilistic forecasting and verification

Shock propagation

The transmission of a shock through the links of a network. Systemic, compound and cascading risk

Shock-responsive social protection

Social protection that can scale up or adapt to support people after a shock. Community resilience and inclusion

Short-lived climate forcer

A substance such as methane, black carbon or tropospheric ozone that affects climate over years to decades. Atmosphere and air chemistry

Short-termism

The bias of institutions towards immediate pressures at the expense of long-term outcomes. Intergenerational governance and future generations

Single point of failure

A component whose failure stops the whole system. Trade, supply chains and geoeconomics

Small modular reactor

A nuclear reactor designed to be built in factory-made modules at a smaller scale than conventional plants. Climate and energy technologies

Social amplification of risk

The process by which social and media responses make a risk seem larger or smaller than technical estimates suggest. Risk perception and behavioural science

Social capital

The networks, norms and trust that help people act together. Community resilience and inclusion

Social cohesion

The strength of relationships and trust within a society. Human development, poverty and inequality

Social cost of carbon

The present value of damage from emitting one more tonne of carbon dioxide. Macroeconomics of climate and disasters

Social licence to operate

The ongoing acceptance of a project by local communities and stakeholders. Critical minerals, mining and extractives

Soil organic carbon

Carbon held in soil organic matter, linked to fertility, water retention and emissions. Land, forests and soils

Solar energetic particles

High-energy particles accelerated by flares and shocks that raise radiation doses in space and at high altitude. Space weather and extraterrestrial hazards

Solvency capital requirement

The capital an insurer must hold under a risk-based solvency regime. Insurance, reinsurance and protection gaps

Source apportionment

Methods that estimate how much each source contributes to measured pollution. Pollution and environmental health

Sovereign wealth fund

A state-owned investment fund, often financed by resource revenues or reserves. Public finance and sovereign debt

Space weather

Conditions on the Sun and in near-Earth space that can disrupt satellites, power grids and radio. Space systems, space weather and navigation

Spatial autocorrelation

The tendency of nearby locations to have similar values. Geospatial analysis, Earth observation and GeoAI

Sphere standards

Minimum standards for humanitarian response in water, food, shelter and health. Humanitarian action and displacement

Spillover

The transmission of a pathogen from an animal reservoir to people. Biological and epidemic hazards in disaster risk management

Spoofing

Sending false satellite signals so that a receiver computes a wrong position or time. Space systems, space weather and navigation

Standard of protection

The flood probability a defence is designed to withstand. Floods, storms and tropical cyclones

Standardized Precipitation Index

A drought index that expresses rainfall over a period as departures from the local long-term record. Heat, drought and wildfire

Stewardship

The responsible allocation, management and oversight of capital on behalf of beneficiaries. Asset management, private markets and institutional investors

Storm surge

An abnormal rise of sea level during a storm, driven mainly by wind and low pressure. Oceans and coasts

Stranded asset

An asset that loses value early because of changes in policy, technology or markets. Energy systems and the energy transition

Strategic dependency

Reliance on a supplier or route that another state could restrict. Geopolitical and political risk

Stratospheric ozone layer

The ozone between about 15 and 35 kilometres that absorbs most of the Sun's ultraviolet radiation. Atmosphere and air chemistry

Stress test

An assessment of how a system or institution performs under severe but plausible conditions. Scenario analysis and stress testing

Structural transformation

The shift of labour and output from low- to high-productivity activities. Economic development and macroeconomic shocks

Structured expert judgement

A documented protocol for eliciting and combining expert estimates so that the result can be reviewed. Expert judgement and elicitation

Subsea cable

A fibre-optic cable laid on the seabed that carries most intercontinental data traffic. Telecommunications and digital infrastructure

Supervisory review

A supervisor's assessment of an institution's risks, controls and capital. Financial regulation and supervision

Supplier concentration

Dependence on few suppliers or locations for an input, which raises exposure to a single shock. Supply network and economic contagion

Supply-chain due diligence

The process of identifying and addressing risks to people and the environment in a supply chain. Trade, supply chains and geoeconomics

Surge capacity

The ability of a health system to expand services quickly during a sudden rise in demand. Health systems and health care resilience

Suspicious activity report

A report to the financial intelligence unit about activity that may involve crime. Financial crime and fraud

Synchronous failure

The simultaneous failure of several systems because they share drivers or are coupled. Polycrisis and global risk assessment

Synergy

An action that brings benefits in more than one sector. Water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus

System inertia

The kinetic energy stored in rotating machines that slows frequency change after a disturbance. Energy transition risk and grid integration

Systematic review

A review that uses explicit methods to find, appraise and synthesise all relevant studies. Research, evidence and the science-policy interface

Systemic risk

The risk that distress in part of the financial system impairs the system as a whole. Financial stability and systemic financial risk

Systemically important institution

An institution whose failure would cause significant disruption to the financial system. Financial stability and systemic financial risk

T

Tabletop exercise

A discussion-based exercise in which participants work through a scenario to test plans and decisions. Preparedness, emergency and crisis management

Tail value at risk

The average loss in the worst cases beyond a chosen percentile. Actuarial science

Tailings storage facility

A structure that stores the fine waste left after ore processing. Critical minerals, mining and extractives

Task exposure

The share of a job's tasks that technology could perform or change. Work, skills and occupational safety

Technical assistance

Expert support provided to strengthen an institution's capability. Capacity development and technical assistance

Technology assessment

The study of the possible effects of a technology on society. Innovation and frontier technology governance

Technology readiness level

A scale that describes how mature a technology is, from basic research to demonstrated operation. Climate and energy technologies

Terms of reference

A document that defines the purpose, scope and deliverables of an assignment. Capacity development and technical assistance

Terms-of-trade shock

A change in export prices relative to import prices. Economic development and macroeconomic shocks

Theory of change

An explanation of how and why activities are expected to lead to desired outcomes. Capacity development and technical assistance

Thermal runaway

A self-sustaining rise in battery temperature that can lead to fire or explosion. Climate and energy technologies

Third-party concentration

Dependence of many organisations on the same few technology providers. Cybersecurity and digital resilience

Threat-led penetration testing

Testing that simulates the tactics of real attackers against live systems, such as TIBER-EU. Operational resilience and ICT risk in finance

Threat, vulnerability and impact

The three elements that combine into cyber risk: who may attack, what weakness they exploit and what harm follows. Cybersecurity and digital resilience

Three Lines Model

A model of roles for management, risk and compliance functions and internal audit. Enterprise risk management and risk frameworks

Tier-n supplier

A supplier several steps removed from the buyer in a supply chain. Trade, supply chains and geoeconomics

Tipping element

A large component of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point, such as an ice sheet or the Amazon forest. Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems

Tipping point

A threshold beyond which a system changes state, often irreversibly. Systemic, compound and cascading risk

Tokenisation

Representing an asset or claim as a digital token on a ledger. Payments, market infrastructure and fintech

Torino scale

A scale from 0 to 10 that communicates the impact hazard of a near-Earth object. Space weather and extraterrestrial hazards

Total defence

A national approach in which civil society, business and government prepare alongside the armed forces. Security, defence and hybrid threats

Track II dialogue

Informal dialogue among non-government experts to support negotiations between governments. Diplomacy, cooperation and the global commons

Trade-off

A gain in one sector that comes at a cost in another. Water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus

Trademark clearance

Checking that a proposed name does not conflict with existing marks before use. Contracts, intellectual property and licensing

Transboundary basin

A river, lake or aquifer basin shared by two or more countries. Water security and hydrology

Transboundary cooperation

Joint management of risks or resources that cross borders. Diplomacy, cooperation and the global commons

Transboundary plant pest

A pest or disease that spreads across borders and can damage crops in many countries. Food systems and agriculture

Transition plan

A plan setting out how an organisation will align its activities with a low-carbon economy. Climate and nature financial risk

Transition risk

Financial risk from policy, technology and market changes on the path to a low-carbon economy. Climate and nature financial risk

Trapped population

People who would move away from risk but lack the means or freedom to do so. Migration and human mobility

Trigger

A pre-agreed threshold on a forecast or observation that starts a defined action. Early warning and anticipatory action

Tsunami travel time

The time a tsunami takes to reach a coast from its source, which sets the warning window. Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and landslides

Two-way communication

Communication in which the audience's questions and knowledge shape the message. Risk communication and risk literacy

U

Uncrewed aircraft system

An aircraft flown without a pilot on board, with its control station and links. Robotics and autonomous systems

Underwriting

Assessing and pricing a risk before accepting it for insurance. Insurance, reinsurance and protection gaps

UNI

The Nexus Standards identifier that names an artifact, record or page and resolves to its catalogue entry. Risk information standards and interoperability

Universal health coverage

Access for all people to the health services they need without financial hardship. Health systems and health care resilience

Universal owner

A large investor so diversified that it holds a slice of the whole economy and its system-level risks. Asset management, private markets and institutional investors

Urban heat island

The higher temperatures of built-up areas compared with their surroundings. Cities, housing and the built environment

V

Validation

Independent review that a model is sound and fit for its purpose. Model risk and validation

Value at risk

A loss level that is not expected to be exceeded at a given confidence over a period. Market, liquidity and treasury risk

Value of information

The expected improvement in a decision from obtaining more information. Uncertainty and decision making

Vectorial capacity

The potential of a vector population to transmit a pathogen, which depends on temperature and other conditions. Climate and health

Vulnerability

The conditions that increase the susceptibility of people, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards. Disaster risk reduction

Vulnerability to poverty

The likelihood that a household falls into or stays in poverty after a shock. Human development, poverty and inequality

W

Wastewater surveillance

Measuring pathogen genetic material in sewage to track infection levels in a population. Epidemic modelling and forecasting

Water balance

The accounting of inflows, storage changes and outflows of water in a catchment or aquifer over a period. Water security and hydrology

Water reuse

The treatment of wastewater to a standard that allows its use for irrigation, industry or drinking supply. Water and wastewater systems

Water safety plan

A risk assessment and management approach covering every step from catchment to consumer, promoted by WHO. Water and wastewater systems

Water security

Reliable access to water of acceptable quantity and quality, with water-related risks kept at an acceptable level. Water security and hydrology

Water stress

Pressure on freshwater resources measured as withdrawals relative to the renewable resources available. Water security and hydrology

Water tower

A mountain region whose snow and ice store and release water for downstream populations. Cryosphere and mountain systems

Water-energy-food nexus

The interdependence of water, energy and food security and the need to manage them together. Water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus

Weak signal

An early, ambiguous indication of a possible change. Foresight and futures

Weighting

Assigning relative importance to indicators in an index. Risk indicators and composite indices

Wet bulb globe temperature

A heat stress index that combines temperature, humidity, wind and radiation, used for work and sport. Climate and health

Wet-bulb globe temperature

A heat stress index that combines temperature, humidity, wind and radiation. Heat, drought and wildfire

Wild card

A low-likelihood, high-impact event that would change the course of the future. Foresight and futures

Wildland-urban interface

The zone where buildings meet or mix with vegetation that can burn. Heat, drought and wildfire

Y

Yield gap

The difference between the yield farmers achieve and the yield attainable with the best available practice. Food systems and agriculture

Z

Zero trust

A security model that verifies every request instead of trusting a network location. Cybersecurity and digital resilience

Zones and conduits

The IEC 62443 approach of grouping assets with common security needs and controlling communication between them. Operational technology and cyber-physical security

Zoonosis

An infection that passes between animals and people. One Health, zoonoses and antimicrobial resistance

Open lessons are in development. Each will state what it covers and its hours, and open lessons carry no achievement.