Illustrative: zonal winds, the subtropical and polar-front jets and the Hadley, Ferrel and polar cells (heights exaggerated)

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Earth and Environmental Sciences

Climate science, variability and change

Climate science covers the variability of precipitation, temperature and soil moisture over years and decades and the extremes at their edges.

Map climate science, variability and change on a real place

01Model

The model, step by step

The model

From a degree of warming to a changed return period: how a shifted distribution turns a rare heat extreme into a common one

DataModelGateDecisionStandard it teachesStandard it relies onNeighbouring discipline

7 steps
New 100-year level above the old location
8.70 °C
Shift of the local distribution
1.80 °C
Old 100-year level above the old location
6.90 °C
New return period of the old 100-year level
30.5 years
/

The model From a degree of warming to a changed return period: how a shifted distribution turns a rare heat extreme into a common one

02Scope

What the discipline covers

The subtopics its courses and labs teach.

Climate science, variability and change: 0 primary courses open, 4 in preparation and 5 also taught here, across 9 subtopics and 5 connected disciplines. Courses: RAF-110 L1 in preparation, RAN-336 L2 in preparation, RAN-363 L2 in preparation, RAT-234 L2 in preparation, RAN-329 L2 also taught here, RAN-330 L2 also taught here, RAN-335 L2 also taught here, RAS-410 L2 also taught here, RAT-227 L2 also taught here.
Climate science, variability and change at a glance
  • Open, 0
  • In preparation, 4
  • Also taught here, 5
  • Subtopics, 9
Course codes from the curriculum; study levels L1 to L4.
Courses
In development
Levels
L1 Introductory, L2 Intermediate
Labs
Map lab, Trigger lab, Geo quiz, Exposure lab, GeoAI lab, Network lab
  • Climate baselines and observations
  • Variability modes such as ENSO
  • Climate models and projections
  • Scenario families (SSPs and RCPs)
  • Downscaling and bias correction
  • Attribution of extreme events
  • Glaciers, permafrost and mountain hazards
  • Climate services
  • Physical climate risk for organisations

Courses in development extend the scope to further subjects: Working with climate projection data and downscaling; Extreme event attribution; Arctic risk.

03The discipline

The field and its scope

For climate analysts, risk modellers, planners and advisers who need to read a projection, an attribution statement or a reanalysis field and know its scenario, its model spread and the confidence it carries.

04Measures

Quantities and units

05Methods

Methods and their limits

Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.

06Debates

What the field debates

07Bodies and data

Bodies that set practice, and the data they publish

Bodies and standards are named so learners can find and apply their published work; the Academy teaches their use and links to the publisher, and no affiliation is implied.

08Simulator

Run the discipline's simulator

Climate science, variability and change's own model, as a live chart: move each parameter and read how the outputs respond.

09Maps

Build a twin of any place

Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow climate science, variability and change on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.

The Po at Casale Monferrato and the Vercelli rice plain: a flat plan of the faculty twin. Terrain 63 to 471 m; River 435 km; Canal 2,280 km; River discharge, GloFAS via Open-Meteo: read live when the 3D twin opens; Vegetation index, MODIS Terra NDVI 8-day: read live when the 3D twin opens; Soil moisture, SMAP L3 (daily): read live when the 3D twin opens; Precipitation rate, GPM IMERG (30 minutes): read live when the 3D twin opens; Surface water extent, OPERA DSWx (HLS): read live when the 3D twin opens; True colour at 30 m, HLS Sentinel-2 (daily granules): read live when the 3D twin opens. Contours every 50 metres from the elevation grid; rivers and named canals by class.
The Po at Casale Monferrato and the Vercelli rice plain, Italy. Flat plan of the same data: relief as contours from the inline grid, rivers and canals, and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked.
  • Terrain 63 to 471 m
  • River 435 km
  • Canal 2,280 km
  • River discharge, GloFAS via Open-Meteo: read live when the 3D twin opens
  • Vegetation index, MODIS Terra NDVI 8-day: read live when the 3D twin opens
  • Soil moisture, SMAP L3 (daily): read live when the 3D twin opens
  • Precipitation rate, GPM IMERG (30 minutes): read live when the 3D twin opens
  • Surface water extent, OPERA DSWx (HLS): read live when the 3D twin opens
  • True colour at 30 m, HLS Sentinel-2 (daily granules): read live when the 3D twin opens
Credits and dates per layer are listed under the stage. Relief in the twin is exaggerated ×1.5 for legibility.

Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and - zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.

Flat plan of the same data: relief as contours from the inline grid, rivers and canals, and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked.

The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).

10Nexus Standards

Nexus Standards it teaches and relies on

The Nexus Standards the discipline teaches toward, grouped by master standard, with the disciplines that teach each.

11Research hub

Research hub: papers, preprints and datasets

Open scholarly sources searched with the subject terms of Climate science, variability and change.

Search termsClimate science, variability and change; Climate baselines and observations; Variability modes such as ENSO; Climate models and projections; Scenario families; Downscaling and bias correctionDerived from the Risk Academy page on Climate science, variability and change.

  • OpenAlexlisted for reference; not queried
  • Crossreflisted for reference; not queried
  • DataCitelisted for reference; not queried
  • Zenodolisted for reference; not queried
  • arXivlisted for reference; not queried
  • Europe PMClisted for reference; not queried
  • OpenAIRE Graphlisted for reference; not queried

No source is enabled for live display on this site yet: the sources are listed for reference and none is queried. Once the publisher of record enables a source after its terms are reviewed, recent works are listed here. Metadata and links only: title, authors, venue, year, type, open-access status and licence as each source records them; works are listed for orientation, not reviewed or endorsed.

12Hub

Research and tools

Research and preprints as they are published, by discipline, with the faculty's other tools.

The hub lists the newest research and preprints for Climate science, variability and change, each with its source and date. Open the research hub

13Methods and standards

Hazard families it covers

From the Academy's risk taxonomy: the discipline's own entries and those of its primary courses, with how many courses teach each.

Hazard families

  1. Climate variability modes2 courses
  2. Drought1 course
  3. Extreme heat1 course
  4. Sea level rise and coastal change1 course
  5. Tropical cyclone1 course
  6. Glacier and permafrost changescope

Frameworks and standards

  1. Paris Agreement1 course
  2. TCFD recommendations and ISSB standards1 course
14What is changing now

What is changing now

Recent developments in climate science, variability and change, each with its source; sources checked on 16 October 2026.

15Courses

Courses in this discipline

Courses for this discipline are in development; until they open, study it through the connected courses and open lessons below.

Courses with this primary disciplineIn development

  1. RAF-110Climate Risk Foundations: Physical and Transition RiskIn developmentFoundation, L1 Introductory, 8 hours (estimate)
  2. RAN-336Southern Africa: Drought, Cyclones and El NiñoIn developmentNexus, L2 Intermediate, 8 hours (estimate)
16Also taught here

Courses from connected disciplines that also teach this field

Each course has its primary discipline elsewhere and teaches this field as part of its scope.

17Labs

How the subject is practised in labs

18Technology in this area

How technology helps and what risk it brings

19Achievements

Achievements in this discipline

21Where this is practised

Where the subject is practised

Field platforms of the ecosystem where the subject is studied and applied.

22Practised in

The three Nexus Foundry systems where it is practised

23Connected disciplines

Disciplines it depends on

24Across the ecosystem

Across the ecosystem

26References

Core references and where to begin

Start with IPCC, then Hawkins, then Hausfather.

NRNexus Reports gateway · GW-ACADEMY

Contribute to Nexus Reports from this page.

Nexus Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

Risk Academy
Climate science, variability and change

Prepare with a related course

Open courses in connected disciplines teach the methods this discipline will build on.

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