Illustrative: branching futures, each branch weighted by its probability

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Course catalogue · Governance, Policy and International Affairs

Science, Technology and Society

Research, evidence and the science-policy interface

Research, evidence and the science-policy interface, taught twice over: as the working methods of the field and as its frontier since 2024, with labs on the Academy's tools, open data and the Nexus Standards.

Core course Frontier course

The discipline

01Core course · L2 Intermediate

Research, evidence and the science-policy interface: foundations and practice

This area covers how knowledge about risk is produced, reviewed, recorded and published so that it can be trusted, reused and corrected, and how it reaches decisions.

Level
L2 Intermediate
Study time
about 24 hours (planning estimate)
Status
In authoring
Prerequisites
An L1 course in the area, or an entry review

Why now

It gives a peer-reviewed evidence base for nature-related risk assessment and disclosure by firms and regulators. IPBES, Methodological assessment of the impact and dependence of business on biodiversity and nature's contributions to people, 8 February 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Define evidence synthesis and the other key terms of the discipline and use them correctly in a written case
  2. Explain the science-policy interface and evidence synthesis with a worked example and its source
  3. Apply the discipline's method to a documented case and explain each result with its source
  4. Analyse a named case against research integrity, stating evidence, date and limits

Modules

  1. The science-policy interface
    • The science-policy interface
    • Evidence synthesis
    • Research integrity
  2. Reproducibility
    • Reproducibility
    • Knowledge translation
    • Peer review and publication
  3. Evidence grading
    • Evidence grading
    • Corrections and versioning
  4. Lab: the discipline's method
    • The probability that a published positive finding is true depends on the prior odds that the hypothesis was true, the study's power and its false-positive rate; low priors and low power make most significant results wrong, which is why evidence grading reads the body of evidence rather than a single paper.
    • Work the method through a documented case and explain each result
    • Read the method's sources and stated values

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-I4 Research evidence, reproducibility and open science
  • NRS-I5 Knowledge products, glossaries and access
  • NRS-E2 Reports: editions, country, regional and technology profiles
  • NRS-M23 Method fabric: Scientific assurance

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance
  • NRS-C9 Risk models, methods and validation
  • NRS-C12 Risk disclosure and reporting

Assessment

  • 40%Lab recordWork the discipline's method through a documented case and explain each result with its source and date
  • 40%Case memoApply the discipline's methods to a named place or organisation, stating evidence and limits
  • 20%Key terms checkShort answers on the key terms, marked against the definitions

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Intermediate, 4 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

Open now in this discipline

References

  1. IPBES, Methodological assessment of the impact and dependence of business on biodiversity and nature's contributions to people, 8 February 2026
  2. Ioannidis, Why Most Published Research Findings Are False, 2005
  3. Open Science Collaboration, Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science, 2015
  4. Guyatt and others, GRADE: an emerging consensus on rating quality of evidence and strength of recommendations, 2008
02Live map

People and hazards in the Horn of Africa

Where people live, night-time lights and the floods and fires public institutions answer to, over the Horn of Africa.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

People and hazards

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

People and hazards, framed on the Horn of Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONETSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Optional layers (3 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

03How learning runs

How learning runs, as a process you can run

Select a scenario and press Play: course, pathway, practice, faculty, cells and record.

04What is changing

Frontier course · L3 advanced, programme courses and standards

Research, evidence and the science-policy interface: frontier methods

The methods, data, tools and studies that changed research, evidence and the science-policy interface between 2024 and 2026, taught by reproducing them on open data.

Level
L3 Advanced
Study time
about 28 hours (planning estimate)
Status
Planned
Prerequisites
Research, evidence and the science-policy interface: foundations and practice; Working knowledge of a scripting language (Python or R) for the labs

Why now

It gives a peer-reviewed evidence base for nature-related risk assessment and disclosure by firms and regulators. IPBES, Methodological assessment of the impact and dependence of business on biodiversity and nature's contributions to people, 8 February 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Explain what changed in research, evidence and the science-policy interface since 2024 and cite the studies, data or rules behind each change
  2. Reproduce IPBES approved an assessment of business dependence on nature on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  3. Evaluate a 2024 to 2026 study: its question, data, method, limits and what it changes for practice
  4. Design an analysis that combines a frontier method with the faculty's instruments, and justify each choice

Modules

  1. IPBES approved an assessment of business dependence on nature
    • The IPBES plenary in Manchester accepted the methodological assessment of business impacts and dependencies on biodiversity, prepared by 79 experts from 35 countries drawing on over 5,000 references, with factsheets for business, finance and government.
    • It gives a peer-reviewed evidence base for nature-related risk assessment and disclosure by firms and regulators.
    • IPBES, 8 February 2026
  2. US executive order sets 'gold standard science' rules for agencies
    • Executive Order 14303 directs agencies to apply nine principles including reproducibility and transparency, publish data and models behind influential science, document uncertainties and assumptions and use a weight-of-evidence approach, while reverting some recent scientific integrity changes.
    • It changes how federal risk assessments must document uncertainty and evidence, and how their integrity can be challenged.
    • The White House, 23 May 2025
  3. CONSORT 2025 updated the reporting guideline for randomised trials
    • The CONSORT 2025 statement updates the guideline for reporting randomised trials to a 30-item checklist with a flow diagram, published alongside SPIRIT 2025 for trial protocols.
    • Transparent trial reporting is the base of evidence synthesis and grading that risk decisions on interventions rely on.
    • BMJ, 14 April 2025
  4. Reproduction lab
    • Extend the discipline's method with one frontier method and compare its results
    • State the uncertainty and the limits of the result
    • Peer review against a shared checklist
  5. Technology that helps and the risks it carries
    • Foresight tools and regulatory sandboxes.
    • Threats to information integrity, and AI in public decisions.

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-I4 Research evidence, reproducibility and open science
  • NRS-I5 Knowledge products, glossaries and access
  • NRS-E2 Reports: editions, country, regional and technology profiles
  • NRS-M23 Method fabric: Scientific assurance

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance
  • NRS-C9 Risk models, methods and validation
  • NRS-C12 Risk disclosure and reporting

Assessment

  • 50%Method reproductionReproduce one frontier method on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  • 30%Study reviewA critical review of a 2024 to 2026 study: question, data, method, limits, what it changes
  • 20%Peer reviewReview two other learners' reproductions against a shared checklist

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Expert, 5 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

Open now in this discipline

References

  1. IPBES, Methodological assessment of the impact and dependence of business on biodiversity and nature's contributions to people, 8 February 2026
  2. The White House, Restoring Gold Standard Science (Executive Order 14303), 23 May 2025
  3. BMJ, CONSORT 2025 statement: updated guideline for reporting randomised trials, 14 April 2025
  4. Ioannidis, Why Most Published Research Findings Are False, 2005
  5. Open Science Collaboration, Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science, 2015
  6. Guyatt and others, GRADE: an emerging consensus on rating quality of evidence and strength of recommendations, 2008
05Take part

Take part in the work

Start from who you are.

06Questions

Questions, answers and key terms

Is the course free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the course?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.

Key terms

Term

Evidence synthesis

Bringing together the findings of many studies in a structured way.

Term

Boundary organisation

An organisation that works between science and policy to keep evidence credible, relevant and legitimate.

Term

Research integrity

Honesty, accountability and rigour in research.

Term

Reproducibility

Obtaining the same results from the same data and methods.

ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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