Illustrative: inflow spiralling to the eyewall, ascent, outflow aloft, rain bands and the storm surge

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Course catalogue · Hazards, Disasters and Resilience

Hazard Science

Floods, storms and tropical cyclones

Floods, storms and tropical cyclones, taught twice over: as the working methods of the field and as its frontier since 2024, with labs on the Academy's tools, open data and the Nexus Standards.

Core course Frontier course

The discipline

01Core course · L2 Intermediate

Floods, storms and tropical cyclones: foundations and practice

This area covers riverine, flash, pluvial and coastal flooding, tropical cyclones, severe convective storms and winter storms.

Level
L2 Intermediate
Study time
about 24 hours (planning estimate)
Status
In authoring
Prerequisites
An L1 course in the area, or an entry review

Why now

Rapid intensification to extreme landfall intensity stresses wind, surge and rainfall assumptions in building codes, cat models and island preparedness planning. NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (AL132025), 19 May 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Define return period and the other key terms of the discipline and use them correctly in a written case
  2. Explain riverine flood and flash and pluvial flood with a worked example and its source
  3. Apply the discipline's method to a documented case and explain each result with its source
  4. Analyse a named case against coastal flood and storm surge, stating evidence, date and limits

Modules

  1. Riverine flood
    • Riverine flood
    • Flash and pluvial flood
    • Coastal flood and storm surge
  2. Tropical cyclones
    • Tropical cyclones
    • Severe convective storms
    • Cold waves and winter storms
  3. Flood hazard mapping and zoning
    • Flood hazard mapping and zoning
    • Flood risk management and defences
    • Monsoon systems
  4. Lab: the discipline's method
    • A gauge record fitted with an extreme value distribution gives the discharge of any return period; the floodplain turns discharge into depth; a depth-damage function turns depth into loss; a defence standard removes the loss below its design flood and leaves the rest as residual risk.
    • Work the method through a documented case and explain each result
    • Read the method's sources and stated values

Labs with Academy tools

Open data

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-X2 Disaster risk reduction and crisis management
  • NRS-X1 Climate change risk and adaptation
  • NRS-H1 Hazard family: Convective storms
  • NRS-H2 Hazard family: Cyclonic storm systems
  • NRS-H3 Hazard family: Damaging wind
  • NRS-H4 Hazard family: Precipitation extremes
  • NRS-H9 Hazard family: Freshwater inundation
  • NRS-H11 Hazard family: Coastal and sea-level hazards

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance

Assessment

  • 40%Lab recordWork the discipline's method through a documented case and explain each result with its source and date
  • 40%Case memoApply the discipline's methods to a named place or organisation, stating evidence and limits
  • 20%Key terms checkShort answers on the key terms, marked against the definitions

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Intermediate, 4 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

Open now in this discipline

References

  1. NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (AL132025), 19 May 2026
  2. Merz, Kreibich, Schwarze and Thieken, Assessment of economic flood damage, 2010
  3. Coles, An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, 2001
  4. Sampson et al., A high-resolution global flood hazard model, 2015
02Live map

Water now in Ethiopia

Rain, flood water and root-zone soil moisture from NASA satellites and models, with long-term water stress, over Ethiopia.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

Water now

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Water now, framed on Ethiopia.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONETSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • SMAP Level 4 soil moisture and snow mass, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GRACE and GRACE-FO JPL mascon solution, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
  • Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (13 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Root-zone soil moisture, 0 to 100 cm: SMAP Level 4, NASA NSIDC DAAC · 11 Oct 2026
  • Snow cover: VIIRS NOAA-20 NDSI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Water storage anomaly, monthly: GRACE-FO JPL mascons, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · July 2022
  • Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

03How learning runs

How learning runs, as a process you can run

Select a scenario and press Play: course, pathway, practice, faculty, cells and record.

04What is changing

Frontier course · L3 advanced, programme courses and standards

Floods, storms and tropical cyclones: frontier methods

The methods, data, tools and studies that changed floods, storms and tropical cyclones between 2024 and 2026, taught by reproducing them on open data.

Level
L3 Advanced
Study time
about 28 hours (planning estimate)
Status
Planned
Prerequisites
Floods, storms and tropical cyclones: foundations and practice; Working knowledge of a scripting language (Python or R) for the labs

Why now

AI flood forecasting now reaches ungauged rivers in over 80 countries, GloFAS and OPERA radar water maps give open global coverage, and 2024 storms such as Helene showed inland rainfall, not wind, as the main killer. Nature, Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds (Nearing et al.), 2024

Learning outcomes

  1. Explain what changed in floods, storms and tropical cyclones since 2024 and cite the studies, data or rules behind each change
  2. Reproduce forecasting floods on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  3. Evaluate a 2024 to 2026 study: its question, data, method, limits and what it changes for practice
  4. Design an analysis that combines a frontier method with the faculty's instruments, and justify each choice

Modules

  1. Forecasting floods
    • Ensemble hydrological forecasting with GloFAS
    • AI rainfall-runoff models
    • Flash flood guidance
  2. Mapping water
    • SAR flood mapping through cloud
    • OPERA DSWx products
    • Validation of flood extents
  3. Tropical cyclone risk
    • Rapid intensification
    • Surge, rain and compound flooding
    • Synthetic track sets for risk
  4. NHC report: Melissa strongest hurricane on record to hit Jamaica
    • The National Hurricane Center's report on Hurricane Melissa estimated a 165 kt peak and 892 mb minimum pressure, and a 160 kt landfall in western Jamaica, the strongest on record there; the revised report attributes 93 fatalities.
    • NOAA National Hurricane Center, 19 May 2026
  5. Inspector General reviews weather service role in Texas flash flood
    • The Commerce Department's Inspector General reviewed National Weather Service actions before and during the 4 July 2025 Guadalupe River flash flood in Kerr County, finding multiple alerts were issued; staff said vacancies did not impair warnings.
    • U.S. Department of Commerce Office of Inspector General, 9 April 2026
  6. Reproduction lab
    • Extend the discipline's method with one frontier method and compare its results
    • State the uncertainty and the limits of the result
    • Peer review against a shared checklist
  7. Technology that helps and the risks it carries
    • Drones, Earth observation, machine learning forecasting and cell broadcast warnings.
    • Telecom and positioning failure, and AI-generated misinformation in a crisis.

Labs with Academy tools

Open data

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-X2 Disaster risk reduction and crisis management
  • NRS-X1 Climate change risk and adaptation
  • NRS-H1 Hazard family: Convective storms
  • NRS-H2 Hazard family: Cyclonic storm systems
  • NRS-H3 Hazard family: Damaging wind
  • NRS-H4 Hazard family: Precipitation extremes
  • NRS-H9 Hazard family: Freshwater inundation
  • NRS-H11 Hazard family: Coastal and sea-level hazards

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance

Assessment

  • 50%Method reproductionReproduce one frontier method on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  • 30%Study reviewA critical review of a 2024 to 2026 study: question, data, method, limits, what it changes
  • 20%Peer reviewReview two other learners' reproductions against a shared checklist

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Expert, 7 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

Open now in this discipline

References

  1. Nature, Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds (Nearing et al.), 2024
  2. NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (AL132025), 19 May 2026
  3. U.S. Department of Commerce Office of Inspector General, Review of the National Weather Service's Actions to Support Kerr County During the Catastrophic Flash Flood in Texas, 9 April 2026
  4. Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization, European State of the Climate: Striking east-west contrast and widespread flooding in Europe's warmest year, 15 April 2025
  5. Merz, Kreibich, Schwarze and Thieken, Assessment of economic flood damage, 2010
  6. Coles, An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, 2001
  7. Sampson et al., A high-resolution global flood hazard model, 2015
05Take part

Take part in the work

Start from who you are.

06Questions

Questions, answers and key terms

Is the course free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the course?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.

Key terms

Term

Return period

The average interval between events of at least a given size; a statement about probability, not a schedule.

Term

Annual exceedance probability

The probability that an event of at least a given size occurs in any one year.

Term

Pluvial flood

Flooding caused directly by intense rainfall that exceeds drainage capacity, away from rivers.

Term

Standard of protection

The flood probability a defence is designed to withstand.

ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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