Illustrative: a hexagonal population grid where a wave rises, peaks and recovers from seeded outbreaks

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Course catalogue · Governance, Policy and International Affairs

Peace, Conflict and Security

Conflict, fragility and security

Conflict, fragility and security, taught twice over: as the working methods of the field and as its frontier since 2024, with labs on the Academy's tools, open data and the Nexus Standards.

Core course Frontier course

The discipline

01Core course · L2 Intermediate

Conflict, fragility and security: foundations and practice

This area covers armed conflict and violence, state fragility and exclusion, and civil unrest, and how they shape exposure, vulnerability and the capacity to manage other risks.

Level
L2 Intermediate
Study time
about 24 hours (planning estimate)
Status
In authoring
Prerequisites
An L1 course in the area, or an entry review

Why now

Classification drives eligibility for financing and operational policies, so the new criteria change which settings are treated as fragile. World Bank, Fragility, Conflict, and Violence: Country Classifications, 1 July 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Define fragility and the other key terms of the discipline and use them correctly in a written case
  2. Explain armed conflict and violence and state fragility with a worked example and its source
  3. Apply the discipline's method to a documented case and explain each result with its source
  4. Analyse a named case against civil unrest and political instability, stating evidence, date and limits

Modules

  1. Armed conflict and violence
    • Armed conflict and violence
    • State fragility
    • Civil unrest and political instability
  2. Conflict analysis and early warning
    • Conflict analysis and early warning
    • Conflict-sensitive programming
    • Compound hazard and conflict crises
  3. Peacebuilding and human security
    • Peacebuilding and human security
    • Security risk management for organisations
  4. Lab: the discipline's method
    • A conflict forecast is an alert when a probability crosses a threshold; its worth depends on sensitivity, specificity and the base rate of onset, and because onset in peaceful places is rare, most alerts there are false even from a skilled model.
    • Work the method through a documented case and explain each result
    • Read the method's sources and stated values

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-D6 Conflict, fragility and human security risk
  • NRS-H55 Hazard family: Organised and collective violence
  • NRS-H56 Hazard family: Conflict-induced harm
  • NRS-H58 Hazard family: Crowd and collective behaviour
  • NRS-H120 Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems
  • NRS-M20 Method fabric: Geopolitics, conflict and human security

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action

Assessment

  • 40%Lab recordWork the discipline's method through a documented case and explain each result with its source and date
  • 40%Case memoApply the discipline's methods to a named place or organisation, stating evidence and limits
  • 20%Key terms checkShort answers on the key terms, marked against the definitions

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Intermediate, 4 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

References

  1. World Bank, Fragility, Conflict, and Violence: Country Classifications, 1 July 2026
  2. Hegre and others, ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system, 2019
  3. Gleditsch, Wallensteen, Eriksson, Sollenberg and Strand, Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset, 2002
  4. United Nations and World Bank, Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict, 2018
02Live map

Hazards and exposure in Mexico

Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, over Mexico.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Hazards and exposure, framed on Mexico.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

03How learning runs

How learning runs, as a process you can run

Select a scenario and press Play: course, pathway, practice, faculty, cells and record.

04What is changing

Frontier course · L3 advanced, programme courses and standards

Conflict, fragility and security: frontier methods

The methods, data, tools and studies that changed conflict, fragility and security between 2024 and 2026, taught by reproducing them on open data.

Level
L3 Advanced
Study time
about 28 hours (planning estimate)
Status
Planned
Prerequisites
Conflict, fragility and security: foundations and practice; Working knowledge of a scripting language (Python or R) for the labs

Why now

Classification drives eligibility for financing and operational policies, so the new criteria change which settings are treated as fragile. World Bank, Fragility, Conflict, and Violence: Country Classifications, 1 July 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Explain what changed in conflict, fragility and security since 2024 and cite the studies, data or rules behind each change
  2. Reproduce world Bank splits its fragile situations list into two lists on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  3. Evaluate a 2024 to 2026 study: its question, data, method, limits and what it changes for practice
  4. Design an analysis that combines a frontier method with the faculty's instruments, and justify each choice

Modules

  1. World Bank splits its fragile situations list into two lists
    • From fiscal year 2027 the World Bank replaced its single FCS list with a conflict-based Public FCV List, using ACLED fatality data at subnational level, and a separate Institutional Fragility List based on CPIA scores.
    • Classification drives eligibility for financing and operational policies, so the new criteria change which settings are treated as fragile.
    • World Bank, 1 July 2026
  2. UCDP records most interstate conflicts since 1946
    • Uppsala Conflict Data Program data for 2025 show eight interstate conflicts, 65 conflicts involving states and 13 wars, the most since 1992.
    • Conflict counts and fatality data underpin exposure assessments, early warning and the design of conflict-sensitive programmes.
    • Uppsala University, 9 June 2026
  3. Global Peace Index finds peacefulness at its lowest level
    • The 2026 Global Peace Index reports peace at its lowest since the index began: 99 countries deteriorated, active state-based conflicts reached 61 and violence cost an estimated USD 21.81 trillion in 2025.
    • A composite view of deterioration helps organisations prioritise where security risk management and contingency planning need strengthening.
    • Institute for Economics and Peace, 5 June 2026
  4. Reproduction lab
    • Extend the discipline's method with one frontier method and compare its results
    • State the uncertainty and the limits of the result
    • Peer review against a shared checklist
  5. Technology that helps and the risks it carries
    • Foresight tools and regulatory sandboxes.
    • Threats to information integrity, and AI in public decisions.

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-D6 Conflict, fragility and human security risk
  • NRS-H55 Hazard family: Organised and collective violence
  • NRS-H56 Hazard family: Conflict-induced harm
  • NRS-H58 Hazard family: Crowd and collective behaviour
  • NRS-H120 Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems
  • NRS-M20 Method fabric: Geopolitics, conflict and human security

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action

Assessment

  • 50%Method reproductionReproduce one frontier method on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  • 30%Study reviewA critical review of a 2024 to 2026 study: question, data, method, limits, what it changes
  • 20%Peer reviewReview two other learners' reproductions against a shared checklist

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Expert, 5 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

References

  1. World Bank, Fragility, Conflict, and Violence: Country Classifications, 1 July 2026
  2. Uppsala University, UCDP: record number of conflicts between states, 9 June 2026
  3. Institute for Economics and Peace, Global Peace Index 2026, 5 June 2026
  4. Hegre and others, ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system, 2019
  5. Gleditsch, Wallensteen, Eriksson, Sollenberg and Strand, Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset, 2002
  6. United Nations and World Bank, Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict, 2018
05Take part

Take part in the work

Start from who you are.

06Questions

Questions, answers and key terms

Is the course free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the course?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.

Key terms

Term

Fragility

A combination of exposure to risk and insufficient capacity of the state, system or communities to manage it.

Term

Conflict sensitivity

Understanding the context and acting to avoid negative effects and support positive ones on conflict.

Term

Do no harm

The principle that interventions should not worsen tensions or vulnerability.

Term

Human security

Freedom from fear, freedom from want and freedom to live in dignity, focused on the protection and empowerment of people.

ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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