Illustrative: branching futures, each branch weighted by its probability

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Course catalogue · Governance, Policy and International Affairs

Governance, Public Policy and Foresight

Risk-informed public policy

Risk-informed public policy, taught twice over: as the working methods of the field and as its frontier since 2024, with labs on the Academy's tools, open data and the Nexus Standards.

Core course Frontier course

The discipline

01Core course · L2 Intermediate

Risk-informed public policy: foundations and practice

This area covers how public policy on shared risks is analysed, designed, compared across jurisdictions and evaluated, and the institutional capacity it depends on.

Level
L2 Intermediate
Study time
about 24 hours (planning estimate)
Status
In authoring
Prerequisites
An L1 course in the area, or an entry review

Why now

International principles for regulatory review influence how jurisdictions assess the impact of rules and keep them focused on material risks. Financial Stability Board, Regulatory and Supervisory Modernisation Principles: Consultation report, 14 October 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Define policy cycle and the other key terms of the discipline and use them correctly in a written case
  2. Explain policy analysis and risk-informed policy design with a worked example and its source
  3. Apply the discipline's method to a documented case and explain each result with its source
  4. Analyse a named case against cross-border policy, stating evidence, date and limits

Modules

  1. Policy analysis
    • Policy analysis
    • Risk-informed policy design
    • Cross-border policy
  2. Policy implementation
    • Policy implementation
    • Regulatory impact assessment
    • Policy evaluation and learning
  3. Development policy
    • Development policy
    • Technology policy
  4. Lab: the discipline's method
    • A flood defence, a retrofit or a vaccine stockpile pays back as a stream of avoided losses over decades; the social discount rate turns that stream into a present value, and the ratio of that value to the capital cost is what appraisal puts before the decision.
    • Work the method through a documented case and explain each result
    • Read the method's sources and stated values

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-P1 Risk-informed policy and regulatory impact assessment
  • NRS-P2 National risk assessment and public risk registers
  • NRS-M12 Method fabric: Policy, regulation and governance

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance
  • NRS-C9 Risk models, methods and validation
  • NRS-C13 Risk indicators and composite indices

Assessment

  • 40%Lab recordWork the discipline's method through a documented case and explain each result with its source and date
  • 40%Case memoApply the discipline's methods to a named place or organisation, stating evidence and limits
  • 20%Key terms checkShort answers on the key terms, marked against the definitions

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Intermediate, 4 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

Open now in this discipline

References

  1. Financial Stability Board, Regulatory and Supervisory Modernisation Principles: Consultation report, 14 October 2026
  2. HM Treasury, The Green Book: appraisal and evaluation in central government, 2022
  3. Drupp, Freeman, Groom and Nesje, Discounting Disentangled, 2018
  4. Hahn and Tetlock, Has Economic Analysis Improved Regulatory Decisions?, 2008
02Live map

People and hazards in the Horn of Africa

Where people live, night-time lights and the floods and fires public institutions answer to, over the Horn of Africa.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

People and hazards

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

People and hazards, framed on the Horn of Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONETSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Optional layers (3 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

03How learning runs

How learning runs, as a process you can run

Select a scenario and press Play: course, pathway, practice, faculty, cells and record.

04What is changing

Frontier course · L3 advanced, programme courses and standards

Risk-informed public policy: frontier methods

The methods, data, tools and studies that changed risk-informed public policy between 2024 and 2026, taught by reproducing them on open data.

Level
L3 Advanced
Study time
about 28 hours (planning estimate)
Status
Planned
Prerequisites
Risk-informed public policy: foundations and practice; Working knowledge of a scripting language (Python or R) for the labs

Why now

International principles for regulatory review influence how jurisdictions assess the impact of rules and keep them focused on material risks. Financial Stability Board, Regulatory and Supervisory Modernisation Principles: Consultation report, 14 October 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Explain what changed in risk-informed public policy since 2024 and cite the studies, data or rules behind each change
  2. Reproduce FSB consults on principles for modernising financial regulation on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  3. Evaluate a 2024 to 2026 study: its question, data, method, limits and what it changes for practice
  4. Design an analysis that combines a frontier method with the faculty's instruments, and justify each choice

Modules

  1. FSB consults on principles for modernising financial regulation
    • The Financial Stability Board proposed eight high-level principles to help authorities make regulatory and supervisory frameworks more effective, efficient, risk-focused, coherent and forward-looking, covering proportionality, impact analysis and prioritisation by materiality.
    • International principles for regulatory review influence how jurisdictions assess the impact of rules and keep them focused on material risks.
    • Financial Stability Board, 14 October 2026
  2. Updated UK Green Book published with tests of place-based cases
    • A one-year progress report confirms an updated Green Book was published in February 2026, rejecting arbitrary benefit-cost thresholds.
    • It lets practitioners track how appraisal reform moves from findings into guidance, pilots and transparency that affect project selection.
    • HM Treasury, 30 June 2026
  3. UK Treasury review rebalances how appraisal uses benefit-cost ratios
    • The Green Book Review found no conclusive regional bias in the method but six problems, including over-reliance on benefit-cost ratios.
    • Appraisal rules decide which risk-reduction investments look worthwhile; ending arbitrary benefit-cost thresholds changes how resilience projects are justified.
    • HM Treasury, 11 June 2025
  4. UK regulation action plan targets lighter administrative burdens
    • HM Treasury and the Department for Business and Trade set out an action plan for regulators to support growth, with a methodology for a 25 per cent administrative burden target and regulator pledges.
    • Shifts in regulatory burden targets change how risk controls are weighed against cost, so policy analysts need to track what is relaxed and why.
    • HM Treasury; Department for Business and Trade, 17 March 2025
  5. Reproduction lab
    • Extend the discipline's method with one frontier method and compare its results
    • State the uncertainty and the limits of the result
    • Peer review against a shared checklist
  6. Technology that helps and the risks it carries
    • Foresight tools and regulatory sandboxes.
    • Threats to information integrity, and AI in public decisions.

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-P1 Risk-informed policy and regulatory impact assessment
  • NRS-P2 National risk assessment and public risk registers
  • NRS-M12 Method fabric: Policy, regulation and governance

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance
  • NRS-C9 Risk models, methods and validation
  • NRS-C13 Risk indicators and composite indices

Assessment

  • 50%Method reproductionReproduce one frontier method on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  • 30%Study reviewA critical review of a 2024 to 2026 study: question, data, method, limits, what it changes
  • 20%Peer reviewReview two other learners' reproductions against a shared checklist

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Expert, 6 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

Open now in this discipline

References

  1. Financial Stability Board, Regulatory and Supervisory Modernisation Principles: Consultation report, 14 October 2026
  2. HM Treasury, Green Book Review 2025: One year on, 30 June 2026
  3. HM Treasury, Green Book Review 2025: Findings and actions, 11 June 2025
  4. HM Treasury; Department for Business and Trade, A new approach to ensure regulators and regulation support growth, 17 March 2025
  5. HM Treasury, The Green Book: appraisal and evaluation in central government, 2022
  6. Drupp, Freeman, Groom and Nesje, Discounting Disentangled, 2018
  7. Hahn and Tetlock, Has Economic Analysis Improved Regulatory Decisions?, 2008
05Take part

Take part in the work

Start from who you are.

06Questions

Questions, answers and key terms

Is the course free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the course?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.

Key terms

Term

Policy cycle

The stages of agenda setting, design, adoption, implementation and evaluation.

Term

Regulatory impact assessment

A structured appraisal of the likely effects of a proposed regulation.

Term

Implementation gap

The difference between what a policy intends and what happens in practice.

ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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