The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Risk Academy, a Nexortium programmeRisk Science and MethodsDepartment of Decision, Behaviour and Communication
Narrative and quantitative scenarios, severity, plausibility and reverse stress tests
A scenario is a coherent, plausible future used to test a plan or an exposure; a stress test asks what severe but plausible conditions do to it.
risksacademy.comrisk-sciencediscipline
Twin figures for the central Apennines: L'Aquila, Amatrice and Norcia, counted from its layers at their stated dates.
For Scenario analysis and stress testing: the faculty's twin of L'Aquila on the planet map, the globe and in 3D. Pick a generator, switch layers, run the instruments; every layer prints its provider and date.
Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and - zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
Flat plan of the same data: relief, the three reference epicentres with magnitude and depth, and the numbers below; the sampler's figure shows one precomputed field with its parameters. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked.
The map loads from this site as it nears the view (MapLibre 6.9.1, checked by hash).
The discipline teaches scenario design with narrative and quantitative forms, severity and plausibility, reverse stress testing, climate and systemic stress tests, sensitivity analysis and the governance of scenario work, and exercising scenarios with decision makers, with the Apennine twin's sampler supplying the hazard realisations a scenario set draws from. A graduate can design a scenario set, run a reverse stress test to the point of failure and exercise the result with the people who would decide.
This area covers the design and use of scenarios and stress tests: narrative and quantitative scenarios, severity and plausibility, reverse stress testing, climate and systemic stress tests, sensitivity analysis and the governance of scenario work, including exercising scenarios with decision makers. It is taught in the department of Decision, Behaviour and Communication, Faculty of Risk Science and Methods, through 1 course with it as primary discipline and 2 more that also teach it.
8 subtopics, taught across its courses and labs.
Recent developments in scenario analysis and stress testing, each with its source; sources checked on 16 October 2026. Summaries are short readings of the source; follow the link for the full account.
News and research as they are published, per discipline, with the faculty's other tools.
The newest research, preprints, news and humanitarian reports for Scenario analysis and stress testing, each with its source and date, load here. Open the research and news hub
From the Academy's risk taxonomy: the discipline's own entries and those of its primary courses, with how many courses teach each.
Courses with this as their primary discipline. Open courses link to the catalogue.
Courses with this primary discipline1 open, 0 in preparation
| Lab | What you do in it | Courses using it |
|---|---|---|
| Network lab | Build dependency graphs, find critical nodes, trace cascades | 1 |
| Trigger lab | Set forecast thresholds, pre-agreed actions and messages | 1 |
| Exposure lab | Overlay people and assets with hazard footprints | 1 |
These courses count in their own primary discipline and also teach this one; they do not count towards its achievement as primary courses.
Also taught here2 courses that count in another discipline
Nexus Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; they are not a service on offer, and studying here gives no access to them.
The catalogue lists each course with its outcomes, labs, hours and level.