The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Risk Academy, a Nexortium programmeRisk Science and MethodsDepartment of Decision, Behaviour and Communication
Types of uncertainty, likelihood language, decision analysis and deep uncertainty
Uncertainty is described before it is decided on: aleatory or epistemic, a probability or a confidence, a sampling error or a model disagreement.
risksacademy.comrisk-sciencediscipline
Twin figures for the central Apennines: L'Aquila, Amatrice and Norcia, counted from its layers at their stated dates.
For Uncertainty and decision making: the faculty's twin of L'Aquila on the planet map, the globe and in 3D. Pick a generator, switch layers, run the instruments; every layer prints its provider and date.
Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and - zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
Flat plan of the same data: relief, the three reference epicentres with magnitude and depth, and the numbers below; the sampler's figure shows one precomputed field with its parameters. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked.
The map loads from this site as it nears the view (MapLibre 6.9.1, checked by hash).
The discipline teaches the types of uncertainty and the calibrated likelihood and confidence language of the IPCC guidance, decision analysis by backward induction with the value of information on the twin's scenario tree, cost-loss reasoning for warning thresholds, expert elicitation, and the methods of deep uncertainty: robust decision making and adaptive pathways. A graduate can state what kind of uncertainty a figure carries, solve a decision under it and recommend an option that holds across plausible futures.
This area covers how to describe, quantify and communicate uncertainty and how to decide under it: types of uncertainty, likelihood and confidence language, decision analysis, cost-loss reasoning and the value of information, expert elicitation, and methods for deep uncertainty such as robust decision making and adaptive pathways. It is taught in the department of Decision, Behaviour and Communication, Faculty of Risk Science and Methods, through 2 courses with it as primary discipline and 5 more that also teach it.
8 subtopics, taught across its courses and labs.
Not yet taught by a course: Economic appraisal of resilience options.
Recent developments in uncertainty and decision making, each with its source; sources checked on 16 October 2026. Summaries are short readings of the source; follow the link for the full account.
News and research as they are published, per discipline, with the faculty's other tools.
The newest research, preprints, news and humanitarian reports for Uncertainty and decision making, each with its source and date, load here. Open the research and news hub
From the Academy's risk taxonomy: the discipline's own entries and those of its primary courses, with how many courses teach each.
Courses with this as their primary discipline. Open courses link to the catalogue.
Courses with this primary discipline1 open, 1 in preparation
| Lab | What you do in it | Courses using it |
|---|---|---|
| Trigger lab | Set forecast thresholds, pre-agreed actions and messages | 2 |
| Network lab | Build dependency graphs, find critical nodes, trace cascades | 1 |
| Map lab | Read hazard, exposure and boundaries on real maps | 1 |
These courses count in their own primary discipline and also teach this one; they do not count towards its achievement as primary courses.
Approved for authoringno enrolment and no achievement until authored and reviewed
Cited as places where the subject is practised; the institutions named are sources here, and Risk Academy hosts every course.
Nexus Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; they are not a service on offer, and studying here gives no access to them.
The catalogue lists each course with its outcomes, labs, hours and level.