The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Risk Academy, a Nexortium programmeRisk Science and MethodsDepartment of Decision, Behaviour and Communication
Turning expert knowledge into a reviewable distribution
Where data are thin, risk still has to be quantified, and expert judgement is the method of record.
risksacademy.comrisk-sciencediscipline
Twin figures for the central Apennines: L'Aquila, Amatrice and Norcia, counted from its layers at their stated dates.
For Expert judgement and elicitation: the faculty's twin of L'Aquila on the planet map, the globe and in 3D. Pick a generator, switch layers, run the instruments; every layer prints its provider and date.
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Flat plan of the same data: relief, the three reference epicentres with magnitude and depth, and the numbers below; the sampler's figure shows one precomputed field with its parameters. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked.
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The discipline teaches structured protocols for eliciting it: the Classical Model, which weights experts by their calibration on seed questions, the IDEA and Delphi protocols, and SHELF for behavioural aggregation, with the heuristics and biases (anchoring, availability, overconfidence) each protocol is designed to counter. It treats documentation as part of the method, so that a panel's distribution can be audited like any other model input, as the IPCC and catastrophe modellers require. A graduate can design an elicitation, score experts on seed questions and combine their judgements into a distribution with its basis on record.
This area covers how uncertain quantities are estimated from experts when data are thin: structured elicitation protocols, the calibration and weighting of experts, and the aggregation of their judgements into a distribution. It is taught in the department of Decision, Behaviour and Communication, Faculty of Risk Science and Methods, through courses still to be authored.
9 subtopics, taught across its courses and labs.
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Courses also taught here and the connected disciplines teach the methods it will build on.
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Earn two discipline achievements in the Department of Decision, Behaviour and Communication. In preparation.
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