Illustrative: a joint probability density whose dependence shifts over time

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Course catalogue · Finance and Economics

Public Finance and Development Economics

Economic development and macroeconomic shocks

Economic development and macroeconomic shocks, taught twice over: as the working methods of the field and as its frontier since 2024, with labs on the Academy's tools, open data and the Nexus Standards.

Core course Frontier course

The discipline

01Core course · L2 Intermediate

Economic development and macroeconomic shocks: foundations and practice

This area covers structural transformation, growth, productivity, jobs and public investment, and how systemic shocks such as commodity, currency and demand shocks, disasters and pandemics set back development gains.

Level
L2 Intermediate
Study time
about 24 hours (planning estimate)
Status
In authoring
Prerequisites
An L1 course in the area, or an entry review

Why now

Shows how shocks redistribute growth across economies depending on their trade and sector exposure. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026: Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology, 8 July 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Define structural transformation and the other key terms of the discipline and use them correctly in a written case
  2. Explain structural transformation and macroeconomic shocks with a worked example and its source
  3. Apply the discipline's method to a documented case and explain each result with its source
  4. Analyse a named case against inflation and price shocks, stating evidence, date and limits

Modules

  1. Structural transformation
    • Structural transformation
    • Macroeconomic shocks
    • Inflation and price shocks
  2. Currency crises
    • Currency crises
    • Industrial policy
    • Regional economic development
  3. Employment and productivity
    • Employment and productivity
    • Trade and external shocks
    • Tourism economies
  4. Lab: the discipline's method
    • A banking, currency or disaster shock cuts output below trend; growth resumes but output seldom climbs back to the old path; the share of the loss recovered decides how many years of development a shock erases.
    • Work the method through a documented case and explain each result
    • Read the method's sources and stated values

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-D5 Economic development, industry and innovation risk
  • NRS-D1 Risk-informed development and project screening
  • NRS-H59 Hazard family: Economic shocks and governance failure
  • NRS-M11 Method fabric: Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risk

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C5 Scenarios and stress testing
  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk

Assessment

  • 40%Lab recordWork the discipline's method through a documented case and explain each result with its source and date
  • 40%Case memoApply the discipline's methods to a named place or organisation, stating evidence and limits
  • 20%Key terms checkShort answers on the key terms, marked against the definitions

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Intermediate, 4 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

References

  1. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026: Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology, 8 July 2026
  2. Cerra and Saxena, Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery, 2008
  3. Kaminsky and Reinhart, The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems, 1999
  4. Noy, The macroeconomic consequences of disasters, 2009
02Live map

Hazards and exposure in Türkiye

Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, over Türkiye.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Hazards and exposure, framed on Türkiye.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

03How learning runs

How learning runs, as a process you can run

Select a scenario and press Play: course, pathway, practice, faculty, cells and record.

04What is changing

Frontier course · L3 advanced, programme courses and standards

Economic development and macroeconomic shocks: frontier methods

The methods, data, tools and studies that changed economic development and macroeconomic shocks between 2024 and 2026, taught by reproducing them on open data.

Level
L3 Advanced
Study time
about 28 hours (planning estimate)
Status
Planned
Prerequisites
Economic development and macroeconomic shocks: foundations and practice; Working knowledge of a scripting language (Python or R) for the labs

Why now

Shows how shocks redistribute growth across economies depending on their trade and sector exposure. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026: Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology, 8 July 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Explain what changed in economic development and macroeconomic shocks since 2024 and cite the studies, data or rules behind each change
  2. Reproduce IMF July 2026 update sees AI demand offsetting war drag on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  3. Evaluate a 2024 to 2026 study: its question, data, method, limits and what it changes for practice
  4. Design an analysis that combines a frontier method with the faculty's instruments, and justify each choice

Modules

  1. IMF July 2026 update sees AI demand offsetting war drag
    • The IMF projects growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with the war weighing on energy importers while AI-driven demand lifts economies in the technology value chain, and disinflation stalling.
    • Shows how shocks redistribute growth across economies depending on their trade and sector exposure.
    • International Monetary Fund, 8 July 2026
  2. World Bank projects slowest global growth since COVID-19
    • The June 2026 Global Economic Prospects projects global growth of 2.5% in 2026 as the Middle East conflict lifts oil prices, with developing economies facing the weakest per capita income growth since the pandemic.
    • Signals an energy price shock setting back development gains, especially in commodity-importing economies.
    • World Bank, 11 June 2026
  3. IMF WEO April 2026 assesses war and conflict economic costs
    • The IMF projects global growth slowing to 3.1% in 2026 under a limited conflict, and finds conflicts cause larger, more persistent output losses than financial crises or severe disasters, with slow, uneven recoveries.
    • Quantifies conflict as a macroeconomic shock and informs recovery and reconstruction planning.
    • International Monetary Fund, 14 April 2026
  4. IMF weighs trade-offs of industrial policy
    • The October 2025 World Economic Outlook finds industrial policy can boost strategic sectors but brings higher consumer prices, fiscal costs and lower overall productivity, with success depending on targeting, institutions and macro policy.
    • Helps assess the costs and risks of industrial strategies adopted in response to fragmentation.
    • International Monetary Fund, 14 October 2025
  5. Reproduction lab
    • Extend the discipline's method with one frontier method and compare its results
    • State the uncertainty and the limits of the result
    • Peer review against a shared checklist
  6. Technology that helps and the risks it carries
    • AI models, tokenisation and regulatory technology.
    • Model risk, cyber accumulation, exposure to quantum attacks on cryptography, and concentration on third-party cloud providers.

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-D5 Economic development, industry and innovation risk
  • NRS-D1 Risk-informed development and project screening
  • NRS-H59 Hazard family: Economic shocks and governance failure
  • NRS-M11 Method fabric: Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risk

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C5 Scenarios and stress testing
  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk

Assessment

  • 50%Method reproductionReproduce one frontier method on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  • 30%Study reviewA critical review of a 2024 to 2026 study: question, data, method, limits, what it changes
  • 20%Peer reviewReview two other learners' reproductions against a shared checklist

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Expert, 6 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

References

  1. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026: Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology, 8 July 2026
  2. World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, 11 June 2026
  3. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War, 14 April 2026
  4. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim, 14 October 2025
  5. Cerra and Saxena, Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery, 2008
  6. Kaminsky and Reinhart, The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems, 1999
  7. Noy, The macroeconomic consequences of disasters, 2009
05Take part

Take part in the work

Start from who you are.

06Questions

Questions, answers and key terms

Is the course free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the course?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.

Key terms

Term

Structural transformation

The shift of labour and output from low- to high-productivity activities.

Term

Terms-of-trade shock

A change in export prices relative to import prices.

Term

Currency crisis

A sharp fall in a currency's value, often with capital outflows.

Term

Productivity

Output per unit of input, such as per worker or per hour.

ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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