Risk Academy, a Nexortium programmeHealth and SocietyDepartment of Global Health Security

Transmission models, real-time estimation and forecasts for preparedness

Epidemic modelling and forecasting

A preparedness decision needs more than a curve: it needs an estimate of transmission now, a forecast with its uncertainty and scenarios for what interventions would change.

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Epidemic modelling and forecasting, drawn as an epidemic curve: 0 primary courses open, 0 in preparation, 0 approved for authoring and 0 also taught here, across 9 subtopics. Courses: none yet.L1L2L3L4Also
Epidemic modelling and forecasting at a glance. Drawn as an epidemic curve.
  • Open, 0
  • In preparation, 0
  • Subtopics, 9
Course codes from the curriculum; study levels L1 to L4.
Twin builder and simulatorDelhi and its National Capital Territory core5 twin generators, 12 layers, 3 instruments
courses open now
0
in preparation
0
subtopics in its scope
9
hospitals
950

Twin figures for Delhi and its National Capital Territory core, counted from its layers at their stated dates.

Twin builder and simulator.

For Epidemic modelling and forecasting: the faculty's twin of Delhi on the planet map, the globe and in 3D. Pick a generator, switch layers, run the instruments; every layer prints its provider and date.

Delhi and its National Capital Territory core: a flat plan of the faculty twin. Terrain 191 to 315 m; 950 hospitals; 26,073,018 people in the box, 2020; Population density, GPW v4.11 (2020): live, loads in the twin; Air quality, Copernicus CAMS via Open-Meteo (hourly, 5 days): live, loads in the twin; Nitrogen dioxide column, TROPOMI (Sentinel-5P): live, loads in the twin; Surface air temperature, AIRS (daily, day): live, loads in the twin; Urban heat island, summer daytime 2013: live, loads in the twin; Built-up and settlement extent, HBASE 2010: live, loads in the twin. Contours every 50 metres from the elevation grid; people per cell, worldpop 2020 as four classes per cell (edges 4,474, 14,627, 25,652); hospitals as marks.
Delhi and its National Capital Territory core, India. Flat plan of the same data: relief as contours from the inline grid, the WorldPop count grid as cells, the mapped hospitals and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked.
  • Terrain 191 to 315 m
  • 950 hospitals
  • 26,073,018 people in the box, 2020
  • Population density, GPW v4.11 (2020): live, loads in the twin
  • Air quality, Copernicus CAMS via Open-Meteo (hourly, 5 days): live, loads in the twin
  • Nitrogen dioxide column, TROPOMI (Sentinel-5P): live, loads in the twin
  • Surface air temperature, AIRS (daily, day): live, loads in the twin
  • Urban heat island, summer daytime 2013: live, loads in the twin
  • Built-up and settlement extent, HBASE 2010: live, loads in the twin
Credits and dates per layer are listed under the stage. Relief in the twin is exaggerated ×1.5 for legibility.

Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and - zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.

Flat plan of the same data: relief as contours from the inline grid, the WorldPop count grid as cells, the mapped hospitals and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked.

The map loads from this site as it nears the view (MapLibre 6.9.1, checked by hash).

The discipline in brief.

The discipline teaches compartmental models from SIR to SEIR with interventions, vaccination and hospital capacity, real-time estimation of the reproduction number and nowcasting under reporting delays, ensemble forecasts scored in forecast hubs, and network and agent-based models, fed by case data, wastewater surveillance and pathogen genomics. H5N1 in dairy cattle in the United States and mpox clade Ib are the current cases. A graduate can estimate Rt from a case series, run an SEIR scenario with stated parameters and say what the model does not forecast.

This area covers the mathematical and statistical models of infectious disease spread and their use in preparedness and response: compartmental and network models, real-time estimation of transmission, forecasting and scenario modelling, and the surveillance data they depend on. It is taught in the department of Global Health Security, Faculty of Health and Society, through courses still to be authored.

What the discipline covers.

9 subtopics, taught across its courses and labs.

Courses
0 open, 0 in preparation
Levels
None yet
Labs
Named when the courses are authored
  • Compartmental models (SIR, SEIR) with interventions
  • Real-time estimation of the reproduction number
  • Nowcasting and reporting delays
  • Ensemble forecasting and forecast hubs
  • Scenario modelling for policy
  • Network and agent-based transmission models
  • Wastewater and genomic surveillance as model inputs
  • Vaccination and capacity planning
  • Communicating model uncertainty

The faculty hub.

News and research as they are published, per discipline, with the faculty's other tools.

The newest research, preprints, news and humanitarian reports for Epidemic modelling and forecasting, each with its source and date, load here. Open the research and news hub

No course yet.

No course has this as its primary discipline yet. It is listed so the gap stays visible.

Courses also taught here and the connected disciplines teach the methods it will build on.

What you can earn here.

  1. Course achievements

    One for each of the 0 courses with this primary discipline, when you pass its assessed activities; 0 can be earned now.

  2. Department: Global Health Security

    Earn two discipline achievements in the Department of Global Health Security. In preparation.

Achievements record learning completed here; they do not certify competence. How recognition works.

How technology helps and what risk it brings.

No ecosystem page yet.

No ecosystem page covers this subject yet. A page has been requested; no loosely related page is cited in its place.

The two Foundry systems where it is practised.

  • Nexus FoundryEWS systemEpidemic forecasts are judged by how they verifyForecast Verification room
  • DSS systemIntervention options are compared as scenariosScenarios room

Nexus Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; they are not a service on offer, and studying here gives no access to them.

Terms used on this page.

Epidemic modelling and forecasting

Prepare with a related course.

Open courses in connected disciplines teach the methods this discipline will build on.

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