Illustrative: a state in a double-well potential, tipping and returning with hysteresis as the forcing changes
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Systems and Nexus Studies · Department of Systemic Risk and Complexity
Thresholds, early warning signals and the resilience that keeps systems away from them
Xalên wergerê û berxwedana pergalên Erdê û civakî
Tipping points and resilience is the study of thresholds beyond which a system shifts abruptly, and often irreversibly, to another state, and of the properties that keep it from doing so.
- Kurs
- Di amadekirinê de
- Ast
- In development
- Labs
- In development
- Bifurcations and alternative stable states
- Climate tipping elements: ice sheets, ocean circulation, tropical forests, coral reefs, permafrost
- Ecological regime shifts
- Social and economic tipping points
- Hişyariya zû signals: critical slowing down, variance and autocorrelation
- Resilience measurement and recovery rates
- Tipping cascades between elements
- Positive tipping points in technology and behaviour
- Governance of tipping risks
Build a twin of any place
Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow tipping points and resilience of Earth and social pergalên on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.
- Terrain 0 to 1,700 m
- River 2,956 km
- 14 dams
- 6 power plants, 88 MW
- Tree cover 37.8 percent of the box
- Cropland 39.9 percent of the box
- Built-up 0.9 percent of the box
- Permanent water 4.7 percent of the box
- River discharge, GloFAS via Open-Meteo: read live when the 3D twin opens
- Vegetation index, MODIS Terra NDVI 8-day: read live when the 3D twin opens
- Surface water extent, OPERA DSWx (HLS): the flood pulse: read live when the 3D twin opens
- Land cover classes, MODIS IGBP (annual): read live when the 3D twin opens
Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and – zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
Flat plan of the same data: the lake and rivers, the dams, the plants by capacity, the cropland and tree cover cells and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices that can draw it, once its data and code have been checked; discharge, vegetation, surface water and the annual land cover load in the twin on request, each with its data date.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
People and exposure in Bangladesh
Population density, night-time lights, air quality, heat and floods, over Bangladesh.
Nexşeya înteraktîf JavaScript hewce dike; lîsteya qatan û çavkanî li jêr in.
Qat 2
People and exposure
Derbarê vê qatê
- Delîl
- Texmînkirî
- Çavkanî
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Zanîngeha Columbia))
- Peydakar
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Zanîngeha Columbia)
- Lîsans
- CC BY 4.0
- Berhema salê
- null; texmîna li ser bingeha serjimariyê, statîk (2020)
- Çareserî
- torê nêzîkî 1 km
- Nediyarî
- Texmîna li ser bingeha serjimêriyê ya mirovan ji bo her kîlometre çargoşeyekê di 2020 de, wekî çarçoveya rûbirûbûnê tê nîşandan; ne jimara mirovên ji hêla tu metirsiyê ve bandor bûne ye.
- Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Derbarê vê qatê
- Delîl
- Çavdêrîkirî
- Çavkanî
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Peydakar
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Lîsans
- Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- Berhema salê
- rojane; Tîrêjiya peykî, ji bo ronahiya heyvê û atmosferê hatiye rastkirin
- Nûtirîn di dema avakirinê de
- 2026-10-12
- Çareserî
- torê nêzîkî 500 m
- Nediyarî
- Tîrêja şevê ya peykî ji bo roja tê nîşandan; ronahî nîşanek e ji bo karanîna elektrîkê û qutbûnê, ne pîvandina peydakirin an gihîştinê ye.
- Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Derbarê vê qatê
- Delîl
- Çavdêrîkirî (ewr valahiyan dihêlin)
- Çavkanî
- OMI Aura (NASA GES DISC)
- Peydakar
- NASA GES DISC
- Lîsans
- Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- Berhema salê
- rojane; Bidestxistina peykî; ewr valahiyan dihêlin
- Nûtirîn di dema avakirinê de
- 2026-10-10
- Çareserî
- torê nêzîkî 2 km
- Nediyarî
- Satellite column of nitrogen dioxide in the lower atmosphere on the day shown, mostly from combustion; not a ground-level concentration or a health warning.
- Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Derbarê vê qatê
- Delîl
- Çavdêrîkirî (ewrên mayinde hêj jî valahiyan dihêlin)
- Çavkanî
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Asta 3, 8-rojî (NASA LANCE)
- Peydakar
- NASA LANCE
- Lîsans
- Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- Berhema salê
- 8-rojî; Berhevoka peykî ya 8-rojî; ewrên mayinde hêj jî valahiyan dihêlin
- Nûtirîn di dema avakirinê de
- 2026-09-14
- Çareserî
- torê nêzîkî 1 km
- Nediyarî
- Germahiya rûyê axê ya peykî di 8 rojên ku bi dîroka nîşandayî diqedin de, nîşanderek ji rûbirûbûna germê; ne germahiya hewayê, ne îndeksa germê û ne hişyariya germê ye.
- Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Derbarê vê qatê
- Delîl
- Çavdêrîkirî (ewr valahiyan dihêlin)
- Çavkanî
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Peydakar
- NASA LANCE
- Lîsans
- Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- Berhema salê
- rojane; Tesbîtkirina bi peykê; ewr valahiyan dihêlin
- Nûtirîn di dema avakirinê de
- 2026-10-14
- Çareserî
- tora nêzîkî 250 m
- Nediyarî
- Tesbîtkirina bi peykê; ewr valahiyan dihêlin. Rasterê peyk an modelê wekî pêşkêşker diweşîne. Ewr, valahiyên şeritê û xeletiya wergirtinê valahî û lerzê dihêlin; nirx nîşander in, ne pîvandinên li cihekî ne.
- Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Klavye, dema ku nexşe di fokusê de ye
Ctrl an ⌘ bigire û bizivirîne da ku nêzîk bikî
Ya herî dawî ya heyî
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Wêneyên herî nû yên NASA tê barkirin.
Bikişîne da ku bilivîne. Ctrl an ⌘ û zivirandin, pincandin an bişkojkan ji bo nêzîkkirinê; ji bo nirxên di bin nîşanderê de li ser bisekine; vegerandin vedigere herêmê.
People and exposure, framed on Bangladesh.Berhemên peyk û modelê wekî NASA diweşîne, her yek bi dîroka xwe. Nîşander in, ne nirxandinên tu cihî ne.
Dane: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © beşdarên OpenStreetMap · Natural Earth · NASA EONETÇavkanî û lîsans
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Bi lîsansa CC BY 4.0. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble ronahiyên şevê, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; ji aliyê NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC) ve tê belavkirin; wêne bi NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- Berhemên VIIRS yên hema dema rast (lehî, germahiya rûyê erdê, berfa li erdê, refleksiya rastkirî), NASA LANCE; wêne bi NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- ASTER GDEM berhemek METI û NASA ye (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); wêne bi riya NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine xêzkirin; nirx li cihên ku têne nîşandan di nav şaneyên H3 de hatine navînkirin (hatine guherandin). Wiha bide nîşan: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- Bi Natural Earth hatiye çêkirin. Daneyên nexşeyê yên vektor û raster ên belaş @ naturalearthdata.com. Giştî
- © beşdarên OpenStreetMap (ODbL), bi NASA GIBS (xetên peravê, sînor, rê û navên cihan). Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; wêne bi riya NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine xêzkirin; nirx li cihên ku têne nîşandan di nav şaneyên H3 de hatine navînkirin (hatine guherandin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
- Çarçove li ser globa û nexşeya daxistî: peravên, sînor, rê û navên cihan ji qatên referansê yên NASA GIBS (daneyên OpenStreetMap, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); wêneya Blue Marble wekî bingeha bijarte; erdnîgariya 3D û xwendina bilindahiyê ji nîşandera rengê bilindahiyê ya ASTER GDEM (çînên 5 m heta 200 m, ji bo xwendinê hatine mezinkirin). Sînor wekî hatine weşandin têne xêzkirin û li ser tu axê helwestekê nîşan nadin.
- Gerdûn: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © beşdarên MapLibre.
- Bûyerên zindî: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); bûyer nîşanî ne û girêdanên çavkaniya xwe ya orîjînal diparêzin.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Pêşbîniya kalîteya hewayê, 5 roj, PM2.5 (CAMS bi riya Open-Meteo): Agahiyên Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service yên guhertî dihewîne 2026.
- Daneyên hewayê ji Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), bi lîsansa CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Qatên bijartî (7 çavkanî di lîsteya qatan de: zindî, pêşbînî, çavdêrîkirî û çarçoveyî) dema ku têne vekirin krediya peydakar li ser nexşeyê û li vir çap dikin; pêşbînî encamên modelê ne û nîşanderên derxistî texmîn in.
Qat û dîrok
- Qebareya nifûsê, 2020: Nifûs: CIESIN, Zanîngeha Columbia, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · sabît
- Ronahiya şevê, rojane: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Cotmeh 2026
- Dîoksîda nîtrojenê, stûna atmosfera jêrîn: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC · 10 Cotmeh 2026
- Germahiya rûyê erdê, roj, kompozîta 8 rojan: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8 roj, NASA LANCE · 14 Îlon 2026
- Ava lehiyê, berhevoka 3-rojî: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Cotmeh 2026
The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies
The field and its scope
For climate and ecosystem analysts, resilience planners and investors who need to recognise approaching thresholds, read early-warning evidence critically and judge what keeps a system away from a transition.
Quantities and units
Methods and their limits
Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.
What the field debates
Bodies that set practice, and the data they publish
Bodies and standards are named so learners can find and apply their published work; the Academy teaches their use and links to the publisher, and no affiliation is implied.
Slowing down before the fold: how a recovery rate becomes an early warning signal
As a forcing approaches a tipping threshold the system recovers from small knocks ever more slowly; that slowing shows up as rising autocorrelation and variance in a long record, and the trend in those statistics, not any single value, is what an early warning signal reads.
Sources: Scheffer et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions (2009); Dakos et al., Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change (2008); Armstrong McKay et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points (2022); Boers, Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (2021).
At a glance, hub and courses
Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems at a glance
risksacademy.comsystems-nexusdiscipline
- Open, 0
- In preparation, 0
- Subtopics, 9
Research and tools
Research and preprints as they are published, by discipline, with the faculty’s other tools.
The hub lists the newest research and preprints for Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems, each with its source and date. Open the research hub
Courses in this discipline
Courses for this discipline are in development; until they open, study it through the connected courses and open lessons below.
The course catalogue lists every open course of the Academy.
How Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems is taught, as a process you can run
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Achievements, where this is practised, practised in and across the ecosystem
Achievements in this discipline
Course achievements
One for each course with this as its primary discipline, earned when you pass the course’s assessed activities.
Department: Systemic Risk and Complexity
Earn two discipline achievements in the Department of Systemic Risk and Complexity. In development.
An achievement is a record of the learning completed and assessed here. How recognition works.
Where the subject is practised
A field platform page on this subject is in development.
The two Foundry systems where it is practised
- FoundryNXS-GRX systemTipping elements interact through coupled systemsCascades room
- NXS-DSS systemPathways near thresholds are explored as scenariosScenarios room
Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; the courses teach the methods these systems apply.
Across the ecosystem
Take part in Systems and Nexus Studies
Ji kî bûna xwe dest pê bike.
Core references and where to begin
Start with Scheffer, then Lenton, then Scheffer.
Pirs, bersiv û têgehên sereke
Gelo xwendin li vir belaş e?
Temamkirina kursekê çi dide min?
Dane û cih ji ku tên?
How do I take part beyond the courses in tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems?
Têgehên sereke
Xala tipping
A critical threshold at which a small change pushes a system into a qualitatively different state.
Critical slowing down
The slower recovery from small perturbations as a system approaches a tipping point.
Hysteresis
The property that a system does not return to its earlier state when the driver is reversed.
Tipping element
A large component of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point, such as an ice sheet or the Amazon forest.
Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Around Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems
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