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Illustrative: a state in a double-well potential, tipping and returning with hysteresis as the forcing changes

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Systems and Nexus Studies · Department of Systemic Risk and Complexity

Thresholds, early warning signals and the resilience that keeps systems away from them

Xalên wergerê û berxwedana pergalên Erdê û civakî

Tipping points and resilience is the study of thresholds beyond which a system shifts abruptly, and often irreversibly, to another state, and of the properties that keep it from doing so.

01Çarçove

What the discipline covers

The subtopics its courses and laboratuwarên teach.

Kurs
Di amadekirinê de
Ast
In development
Labs
In development
  • Bifurcations and alternative stable states
  • Climate tipping elements: ice sheets, ocean circulation, tropical forests, coral reefs, permafrost
  • Ecological regime shifts
  • Social and economic tipping points
  • Hişyariya zû signals: critical slowing down, variance and autocorrelation
  • Resilience measurement and recovery rates
  • Tipping cascades between elements
  • Positive tipping points in technology and behaviour
  • Governance of tipping risks
02Nexşe

Build a twin of any place

Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow tipping points and resilience of Earth and social pergalên on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.

The Tonle Sap and the Lower Mekong at Phnom Penh: a flat plan of the faculty twin. Terrain 0 to 1,700 m; River 2,956 km; 14 dams; 6 power plants, 88 MW; Tree cover 37.8 percent of the box; Cropland 39.9 percent of the box; Built-up 0.9 percent of the box; Permanent water 4.7 percent of the box; River discharge, GloFAS via Open-Meteo: read live when the 3D twin opens; Vegetation index, MODIS Terra NDVI 8-day: read live when the 3D twin opens; Surface water extent, OPERA DSWx (HLS): the flood pulse: read live when the 3D twin opens; Land cover classes, MODIS IGBP (annual): read live when the 3D twin opens. Contours every 250 metres from the elevation grid; named rivers by class; cropland, tree cover, water and built-up shares (esa worldcover 2021) as the class holding a quarter or more of each cell; dams as marks; power plants as marks.
The Tonle Sap and the Lower Mekong at Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Flat plan of the same data: the lake and rivers, the dams, the plants by capacity, the cropland and tree cover cells and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices that can draw it, once its data and code have been checked; discharge, vegetation, surface water and the annual land cover load in the twin on request, each with its data date.
  • Terrain 0 to 1,700 m
  • River 2,956 km
  • 14 dams
  • 6 power plants, 88 MW
  • Tree cover 37.8 percent of the box
  • Cropland 39.9 percent of the box
  • Built-up 0.9 percent of the box
  • Permanent water 4.7 percent of the box
  • River discharge, GloFAS via Open-Meteo: read live when the 3D twin opens
  • Vegetation index, MODIS Terra NDVI 8-day: read live when the 3D twin opens
  • Surface water extent, OPERA DSWx (HLS): the flood pulse: read live when the 3D twin opens
  • Land cover classes, MODIS IGBP (annual): read live when the 3D twin opens
Credits and dates per layer are listed under the stage. Relief in the twin is exaggerated ×1.5 for legibility.

Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and – zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.

Flat plan of the same data: the lake and rivers, the dams, the plants by capacity, the cropland and tree cover cells and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices that can draw it, once its data and code have been checked; discharge, vegetation, surface water and the annual land cover load in the twin on request, each with its data date.

The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).

03Nexşeya zindî

People and exposure in Bangladesh

Population density, night-time lights, air quality, heat and floods, over Bangladesh.

Nexşeya înteraktîf JavaScript hewce dike; lîsteya qatan û çavkanî li jêr in.

Qat 2

People and exposure

Derbarê vê qatê
Delîl
Texmînkirî
Çavkanî
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Zanîngeha Columbia))
Peydakar
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Zanîngeha Columbia)
Lîsans
CC BY 4.0
Berhema salê
null; texmîna li ser bingeha serjimariyê, statîk (2020)
Çareserî
torê nêzîkî 1 km
Nediyarî
Texmîna li ser bingeha serjimêriyê ya mirovan ji bo her kîlometre çargoşeyekê di 2020 de, wekî çarçoveya rûbirûbûnê tê nîşandan; ne jimara mirovên ji hêla tu metirsiyê ve bandor bûne ye.
Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Derbarê vê qatê
Delîl
Çavdêrîkirî
Çavkanî
VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
Peydakar
NASA LAADS DAAC
Lîsans
Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
Berhema salê
rojane; Tîrêjiya peykî, ji bo ronahiya heyvê û atmosferê hatiye rastkirin
Nûtirîn di dema avakirinê de
2026-10-12
Çareserî
torê nêzîkî 500 m
Nediyarî
Tîrêja şevê ya peykî ji bo roja tê nîşandan; ronahî nîşanek e ji bo karanîna elektrîkê û qutbûnê, ne pîvandina peydakirin an gihîştinê ye.
Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Derbarê vê qatê
Delîl
Çavdêrîkirî (ewr valahiyan dihêlin)
Çavkanî
OMI Aura (NASA GES DISC)
Peydakar
NASA GES DISC
Lîsans
Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
Berhema salê
rojane; Bidestxistina peykî; ewr valahiyan dihêlin
Nûtirîn di dema avakirinê de
2026-10-10
Çareserî
torê nêzîkî 2 km
Nediyarî
Satellite column of nitrogen dioxide in the lower atmosphere on the day shown, mostly from combustion; not a ground-level concentration or a health warning.
Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Derbarê vê qatê
Delîl
Çavdêrîkirî (ewrên mayinde hêj jî valahiyan dihêlin)
Çavkanî
VIIRS NOAA-20 Asta 3, 8-rojî (NASA LANCE)
Peydakar
NASA LANCE
Lîsans
Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
Berhema salê
8-rojî; Berhevoka peykî ya 8-rojî; ewrên mayinde hêj jî valahiyan dihêlin
Nûtirîn di dema avakirinê de
2026-09-14
Çareserî
torê nêzîkî 1 km
Nediyarî
Germahiya rûyê axê ya peykî di 8 rojên ku bi dîroka nîşandayî diqedin de, nîşanderek ji rûbirûbûna germê; ne germahiya hewayê, ne îndeksa germê û ne hişyariya germê ye.
Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Derbarê vê qatê
Delîl
Çavdêrîkirî (ewr valahiyan dihêlin)
Çavkanî
VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
Peydakar
NASA LANCE
Lîsans
Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
Berhema salê
rojane; Tesbîtkirina bi peykê; ewr valahiyan dihêlin
Nûtirîn di dema avakirinê de
2026-10-14
Çareserî
tora nêzîkî 250 m
Nediyarî
Tesbîtkirina bi peykê; ewr valahiyan dihêlin. Rasterê peyk an modelê wekî pêşkêşker diweşîne. Ewr, valahiyên şeritê û xeletiya wergirtinê valahî û lerzê dihêlin; nirx nîşander in, ne pîvandinên li cihekî ne.
Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin

Ya herî dawî ya heyî

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Wêneyên herî nû yên NASA tê barkirin.

Bikişîne da ku bilivîne. Ctrl an ⌘ û zivirandin, pincandin an bişkojkan ji bo nêzîkkirinê; ji bo nirxên di bin nîşanderê de li ser bisekine; vegerandin vedigere herêmê.

People and exposure, framed on Bangladesh.Berhemên peyk û modelê wekî NASA diweşîne, her yek bi dîroka xwe. Nîşander in, ne nirxandinên tu cihî ne.

Dane: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © beşdarên OpenStreetMap · Natural Earth · NASA EONETÇavkanî û lîsans

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Bi lîsansa CC BY 4.0. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble ronahiyên şevê, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; ji aliyê NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC) ve tê belavkirin; wêne bi NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
  • OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
  • Berhemên VIIRS yên hema dema rast (lehî, germahiya rûyê erdê, berfa li erdê, refleksiya rastkirî), NASA LANCE; wêne bi NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
  • ASTER GDEM berhemek METI û NASA ye (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); wêne bi riya NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine xêzkirin; nirx li cihên ku têne nîşandan di nav şaneyên H3 de hatine navînkirin (hatine guherandin). Wiha bide nîşan: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
  • Bi Natural Earth hatiye çêkirin. Daneyên nexşeyê yên vektor û raster ên belaş @ naturalearthdata.com. Giştî
  • © beşdarên OpenStreetMap (ODbL), bi NASA GIBS (xetên peravê, sînor, rê û navên cihan). Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; wêne bi riya NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine xêzkirin; nirx li cihên ku têne nîşandan di nav şaneyên H3 de hatine navînkirin (hatine guherandin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
  • Çarçove li ser globa û nexşeya daxistî: peravên, sînor, rê û navên cihan ji qatên referansê yên NASA GIBS (daneyên OpenStreetMap, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); wêneya Blue Marble wekî bingeha bijarte; erdnîgariya 3D û xwendina bilindahiyê ji nîşandera rengê bilindahiyê ya ASTER GDEM (çînên 5 m heta 200 m, ji bo xwendinê hatine mezinkirin). Sînor wekî hatine weşandin têne xêzkirin û li ser tu axê helwestekê nîşan nadin.
  • Gerdûn: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © beşdarên MapLibre.
  • Bûyerên zindî: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); bûyer nîşanî ne û girêdanên çavkaniya xwe ya orîjînal diparêzin.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Pêşbîniya kalîteya hewayê, 5 roj, PM2.5 (CAMS bi riya Open-Meteo): Agahiyên Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service yên guhertî dihewîne 2026.
  • Daneyên hewayê ji Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), bi lîsansa CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Qatên bijartî (7 çavkanî di lîsteya qatan de: zindî, pêşbînî, çavdêrîkirî û çarçoveyî) dema ku têne vekirin krediya peydakar li ser nexşeyê û li vir çap dikin; pêşbînî encamên modelê ne û nîşanderên derxistî texmîn in.

Qat û dîrok

  • Qebareya nifûsê, 2020: Nifûs: CIESIN, Zanîngeha Columbia, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · sabît
  • Ronahiya şevê, rojane: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Cotmeh 2026
  • Dîoksîda nîtrojenê, stûna atmosfera jêrîn: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC · 10 Cotmeh 2026
  • Germahiya rûyê erdê, roj, kompozîta 8 rojan: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8 roj, NASA LANCE · 14 Îlon 2026
  • Ava lehiyê, berhevoka 3-rojî: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Cotmeh 2026

04The subject

The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies

The field and its scope

For climate and ecosystem analysts, resilience planners and investors who need to recognise approaching thresholds, read early-warning evidence critically and judge what keeps a system away from a transition.

05The method

Slowing down before the fold: how a recovery rate becomes an early warning signal

As a forcing approaches a tipping threshold the system recovers from small knocks ever more slowly; that slowing shows up as rising autocorrelation and variance in a long record, and the trend in those statistics, not any single value, is what an early warning signal reads.

Sources: Scheffer et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions (2009); Dakos et al., Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change (2008); Armstrong McKay et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points (2022); Boers, Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (2021).

06At a glance

At a glance, hub and courses

Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems at a glance

risksacademy.comsystems-nexusdiscipline

Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems: 0 primary courses open, 0 in preparation and 0 also taught here, across 9 subtopics. Courses: none yet.
Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems at a glance
  • Open, 0
  • In preparation, 0
  • Subtopics, 9
Drawn as a network cascade: the discipline as the source, its courses as the first tier and connected disciplines as the second.Course codes from the curriculum; study levels L1 to L4.
Twin builderBuild a twin of any placeWorked example: the Tonle Sap and the Lower Mekong at Phnom Penh · 5 generators · 13 layers · 2 instruments
07Konsol

How Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems is taught, as a process you can run

Press Play to run this process from this page’s own data.

08Fêrbûn

Achievements, where this is practised, practised in and across the ecosystem

Achievements in this discipline

  1. Course achievements

    One for each course with this as its primary discipline, earned when you pass the course’s assessed activities.

  2. Department: Systemic Risk and Complexity

    Earn two discipline achievements in the Department of Systemic Risk and Complexity. In development.

An achievement is a record of the learning completed and assessed here. How recognition works.

09Beşdar bibe

Take part in Systems and Nexus Studies

Ji kî bûna xwe dest pê bike.

10References

Core references and where to begin

Start with Scheffer, then Lenton, then Scheffer.

11Pirs

Pirs, bersiv û têgehên sereke

Gelo xwendin li vir belaş e?
Erê. Her kurs û materyalê fêrbûnê yê Risk Academy, bi rêberiya Nexus Consortium, xwendina wê belaş e, bi leza xwe an bi komekê re. Beşdariya asayî tu xercê nîne; xebata bi pere, stajyerî û bûrs rêkeftinên cuda ne.
Temamkirina kursekê çi dide min?
Tomara temamkirinê: kurs, guhertoya wê, dîrok û tiştê ku hat nirxandin, bi awayê xwerû taybet e û tu parve dikî. Ew li ser hev kom dibe bo destkeftên dîsîplîn, beş û bernameyê. Tomarek diyar dike çi hat xwendin û nirxandin û jêhatîbûnê piştrast nake; ew ne lîsans, ne sernavê pîşeyî û ne rewşa kar e.
Dane û cih ji ku tên?
Her fakulte li ser cêwîyekî cihekî rastîn ê ji daneyên vekirî hatî avakirin ders dide; her qat peydaker, lîsans û dîroka xwe hildigire, û her encam li ser Academy çavkaniya xwe diyar dike. Nexşe û wêne ji bo fêrkirinê nîşander in, qet ne nirxandina cihekî ne.
How do I take part beyond the courses in tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems?
Şaneyeke jêhatîbûnê ji sê heta heft kesan ava bike, rêyeke hevpar bixwîne, erkeke bi çavdêrî di National Working Groups de bigire, an komeke ji saziya xwe bîne. Ji bo rêxistinan.

Têgehên sereke

Têgeh

Xala tipping

A critical threshold at which a small change pushes a system into a qualitatively different state.

Têgeh

Critical slowing down

The slower recovery from small perturbations as a system approaches a tipping point.

Têgeh

Hysteresis

The property that a system does not return to its earlier state when the driver is reversed.

Têgeh

Tipping element

A large component of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point, such as an ice sheet or the Amazon forest.

rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkBeşdar bibe

Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

Risk Academy
Xalên wergerê û berxwedana pergalên Erdê û civakî

Prepare with a related course

Open courses in connected disciplines teach the methods this discipline will build on.