Illustrative: a state in a double-well potential, tipping and returning with hysteresis as the forcing changes
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Systems and Nexus Studies · Department of Systemic Risk and Complexity
Extreme pandemics, nuclear risk, space weather, large eruptions and advanced technology
Xeterên karesatî yên cîhanî
Global catastrophic risks covers low-probability, high-impact risks that could severely harm humanity at global scale: extreme pandemics,nuclear war, extremespace weather and near-Earth objects, very large volcanic eruptions, severe climate outcomes and risks from advanced technology, and how such risks can be studied and governed with honesty aboutdeep uncertainty.
The Tonle Sap and the Lower Mekong at Phnom Penh, Cambodia.Flat plan of the same data: the lake and rivers, the dams, the plants by capacity, the cropland and tree cover cells and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices that can draw it, once its data and code have been checked; discharge, vegetation, surface water and the annual land cover load in the twin on request, each with its data date.
Terrain 0 to 1,700 m
River 2,956 km
14 dams
6 power plants, 88 MW
Tree cover 37.8 percent of the box
Cropland 39.9 percent of the box
Built-up 0.9 percent of the box
Permanent water 4.7 percent of the box
River discharge, GloFAS via Open-Meteo: read live when the 3D twin opens
Vegetation index, MODIS Terra NDVI 8-day: read live when the 3D twin opens
Surface water extent, OPERA DSWx (HLS): the flood pulse: read live when the 3D twin opens
Land cover classes, MODIS IGBP (annual): read live when the 3D twin opens
Credits and dates per layer are listed under the stage. Relief in the twin is exaggerated ×1.5 for legibility.
Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and – zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
Power plantsThe hydropower, oil, waste and biomass plants inside the box with their capacity in MW and primary fuel, the energy node of the loop.Power plants: Global Power Plant Database v1.3.0 (2021), World Resources Institute and partners, CC BY 4.0. release 1.3.0, 2021-06-02.Estimate: A 2021 snapshot, never current operating status.
Cropland, tree cover, water and built-up shares (ESA WorldCover 2021)The share of cropland, tree cover, permanent water and built-up land in each of 200 by 200 cells, summarised at build time from the 10 metre product; the food and ecosystem nodes of the loop.(c) ESA WorldCover project 2021 / Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2021 processed by ESA WorldCover consortium (CC BY 4.0); dataset: Zanaga, D. et al. (2022), ESA WorldCover 10 m 2021 v200, doi:10.5281/zenodo.7254221. read 2026-10-17.Estimate: A 2021 classification at 10 metres summarised to cells of about 1.4 kilometres from 16 sub-samples; not a crop yield, a harvest area or a wetland inventory.
River discharge, GloFAS via Open-MeteoDaily Mekong discharge at the Kratie cell with the member range for the next 30 days, and on click anywhere in the box; the water inflow of the loop.Weather data by Open-Meteo.com(CC BY 4.0); river discharge: contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026 (GloFAS); never a flood warning. Live: this page requests flood-api.open-meteo.com when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it.Estimate: Model output (forecast or reanalysis), shown with the member range where the API gives one; never a warning. The loop simulator adds one request to the same endpoint with start_date=1984-01-01 and end_date=today for the chosen cell to build the seasonal pulse.
Vegetation index, MODIS Terra NDVI 8-dayVegetation greenness across the basin; the season scrub steps the 8-day periods through the flood pulse.MODIS Terra NDVI 8-day, NASA LP DAAC / LANCE, via NASA GIBS, with the product date. Live: this page requests gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it.We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).Estimate: An indicator of vegetation condition, never yield or production.
Surface water extent, OPERA DSWx (HLS): the flood pulseOpen and partial surface water on the date shown: the lake’s seasonal expansion and contraction.OPERA Dynamic Surface Water Extent from HLS, NASA JPL OPERA (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data; USGS Landsat), via NASA GIBS, with the product date. Live: this page requests gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it.We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).Estimate: A classification from optical imagery; clouds leave gaps in the wet season; never a flood warning.
Land cover classes, MODIS IGBP (annual)The 500 metre annual land cover classes (croplands, wetlands, forests) for the newest year GIBS serves, draped on the terrain beside the WorldCover shares.MODIS land cover (MCD12Q1, IGBP classes), NASA LP DAAC, via NASA GIBS, with the product year. Live: this page requests gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it.We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).Estimate: A classification, not a crop area statistic.
Why this place: One box of about 270 by 275 kilometres holds the Tonle Sap lake, whose flow reverses with the Mekong flood pulse each year, the Mekong main stem from Kratie to Phnom Penh, the rice plains that the pulse irrigates, the fisheries that feed the country, and the hydropower and thermal plants of the Global Power Plant Database, so the water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus can be taught where the couplings are strong and well documented.Data quality: Copernicus DEM GLO-30 covers the flat basin in nine tiles, the GloFAS cell at Kratie answered 15,416 cubic metres per second through Open-Meteo on 2026-10-17, ESA WorldCover gives cropland, tree cover and permanent water shares per cell and MODIS the annual land cover classes, and OpenStreetMap maps the dams and the named rivers. It connects to the Water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus, Nexus-Based Risk Management (NRM), Systemic, compound andcascading riskand Complex systems and systems modelling disciplines and to the water, energy and food nexus field maps of the ecosystem sites, which draw on the same rows.
Flat plan of the same data: the lake and rivers, the dams, the plants by capacity, the cropland and tree cover cells and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices that can draw it, once its data and code have been checked; discharge, vegetation, surface water and the annual land cover load in the twin on request, each with its data date.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
03Nexşeya zindî
Hazards and exposure in Middle East and North Africa
Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, over Middle East and North Africa.
Nexşeya înteraktîf JavaScript hewce dike; lîsteya qatan û çavkanî li jêr in.
rojane; Tesbîtkirina bi peykê; ewr valahiyan dihêlin
Nûtirîn di dema avakirinê de
2026-10-14
Çareserî
tora nêzîkî 250 m
Nediyarî
Tesbîtkirina bi peykê; ewr valahiyan dihêlin. Rasterê peyk an modelê wekî pêşkêşker diweşîne. Ewr, valahiyên şeritê û xeletiya wergirtinê valahî û lerzê dihêlin; nirx nîşander in, ne pîvandinên li cihekî ne.
Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Derbarê vê qatê
Delîl
Çavdêrîkirî (ewr û dema derbasbûnê valahiyan dihêlin)
null; texmîna li ser bingeha serjimariyê, statîk (2020)
Çareserî
torê nêzîkî 1 km
Nediyarî
Texmîna li ser bingeha serjimêriyê ya mirovan ji bo her kîlometre çargoşeyekê di 2020 de, wekî çarçoveya rûbirûbûnê tê nîşandan; ne jimara mirovên ji hêla tu metirsiyê ve bandor bûne ye.
Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Derbarê vê qatê
Delîl
Çavdêrîkirî (ewrên mayinde hêj jî valahiyan dihêlin)
8-rojî; Berhevoka peykî ya 8-rojî; ewrên mayinde hêj jî valahiyan dihêlin
Nûtirîn di dema avakirinê de
2026-09-14
Çareserî
torê nêzîkî 1 km
Nediyarî
Germahiya rûyê axê ya peykî di 8 rojên ku bi dîroka nîşandayî diqedin de, nîşanderek ji rûbirûbûna germê; ne germahiya hewayê, ne îndeksa germê û ne hişyariya germê ye.
Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Pîvana peykî ya tarî, dûman û tozê di tevahiya stûna hewayê de di roja tê nîşandan de; nîşanderek rûbirûbûnê ye, ne PM2.5 ya asta erdê, ne nîşandera kalîteya hewayê û ne hişyariyeke tenduristiyê ye.
Bi vê rêyê tê gihîştin
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, tenê piştî ku hûn nexşeya zindî destûr bidin
Bikişîne da ku bilivîne. Ctrl an ⌘ û zivirandin, pincandin an bişkojkan ji bo nêzîkkirinê; ji bo nirxên di bin nîşanderê de li ser bisekine; vegerandin vedigere herêmê.
Hazards and exposure, framed on Middle East and North Africa.Berhemên peyk û modelê wekî NASA diweşîne, her yek bi dîroka xwe. Nîşander in, ne nirxandinên tu cihî ne.
We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified).Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified).Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
Berhemên VIIRS yên hema dema rast (lehî, germahiya rûyê erdê, berfa li erdê, refleksiya rastkirî), NASA LANCE; wêne bi NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), berheva agirê çalak a VIIRS 375 m, NASA LANCE; kaşiyên vektorî bi riya NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine xêzkirin; nirx li cihên ku têne nîşandan di nav şaneyên H3 de hatine navînkirin (hatine guherandin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Bi lîsansa CC BY 4.0. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
VIIRS Black Marble ronahiyên şevê, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; ji aliyê NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC) ve tê belavkirin; wêne bi NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine kişandin; nirx li şaneyên H3 yên ku têne nîşandan hatine navînkirin (hatiye guhertin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
Berhemên atmosferê yên MODIS û VIIRS, NASA LANCE û LAADS DAAC; wêne bi riya NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine xêzkirin; nirx li cihên ku têne nîşandan di nav şaneyên H3 de hatine navînkirin (hatine guherandin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
ASTER GDEM berhemek METI û NASA ye (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); wêne bi riya NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine xêzkirin; nirx li cihên ku têne nîşandan di nav şaneyên H3 de hatine navînkirin (hatine guherandin). Wiha bide nîşan: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
Bi Natural Earth hatiye çêkirin. Daneyên nexşeyê yên vektor û raster ên belaş @ naturalearthdata.com. Giştî
Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; wêne bi riya NASA GIBS. Reng ji nexşeya rengan a weşandî ji nû ve hatine xêzkirin; nirx li cihên ku têne nîşandan di nav şaneyên H3 de hatine navînkirin (hatine guherandin). Daneyên vekirî yên NASA
Bûyerên zindî: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); bûyer nîşanî ne û girêdanên çavkaniya xwe ya orîjînal diparêzin.
Zindî: Bûyerên NASA EONET nîşander in, ne hişyariyên desthilatê ne.
Zindî: U.S. Geological Survey Bûyer nîşanî ne, ne hişyariyên rayedaran in.
NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
Pêşbîniya herikîna çemê, 30 roj bi navber (GloFAS bi riya Open-Meteo): Agahiyên Copernicus Emergency Management Service yên guhertî dihewîne 2026; ne hişyariya lehiyê ye.
Daneyên hewayê ji Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), bi lîsansa CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Qatên bijartî (10 çavkanî di lîsteya qatan de: zindî, pêşbînî, çavdêrîkirî û çarçoveyî) dema ku têne vekirin krediya peydakar li ser nexşeyê û li vir çap dikin; pêşbînî encamên modelê ne û nîşanderên derxistî texmîn in.
Qat û dîrok
Ava lehiyê, berhevoka 3-rojî: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Cotmeh 2026
Şewat û anomaliyên germî yên çalak: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Cotmeh 2026
Qebareya nifûsê, 2020: Nifûs: CIESIN, Zanîngeha Columbia, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · sabît
Germahiya rûyê erdê, roj, kompozîta 8 rojan: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8 roj, NASA LANCE · 14 Îlon 2026
Ronahiya şevê, rojane: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Cotmeh 2026
Kûrahiya optîkî ya aerosolê, rojane: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Cotmeh 2026
04The subject
The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies
The field and its scope
For analysts, policy advisers and researchers who need to assess and communicate low-probability, high-consequence risks to humanity with honesty about what the probabilities rest on.
Quantities and units
Methods and their limits
Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.
What the field debates
Bodies that set practice, and the data they publish
Bodies and standards are named so learners can find and apply their published work; the Academy teaches their use and links to the publisher, and no affiliation is implied.
05The method
Soot in the stratosphere: from an annual probability to the food a reserve can cover
A rare event has a small annual probability that compounds over a planning horizon; its impact runs from soot or sulphate in the stratosphere to cooling, to lost calories, to the months a food reserve can cover, and each link carries a range that an honest assessment states.
Sources:Robock, Oman and Stenchikov, Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals(2007); Xia et al., Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection (2022); Rougier, Sparks, Cashman and Brown, The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions (2018); Cotton-Barratt, Daniel and Sandberg, Defence in depth against human extinction: prevention, response, resilience, and why they all matter (2020).
06At a glance
At a glance, with 5 related topics
Global catastrophic risks at a glance
risksacademy.comsystems-nexusdiscipline
Global catastrophic risks at a glance
Open, 0
In preparation, 1
Also taught here, 2
Subtopics, 8
Drawn as a network cascade: the discipline as the source, its courses as the first tier and connected disciplines as the second.Course codes from the curriculum; study levels L1 to L4.
NXS-CMD systemInstitutional deliberation on extreme risksCouncil room
Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; the courses teach the methods these systems apply.
Across the ecosystem
10Beşdar bibe
Take part in Systems and Nexus Studies
Ji kî bûna xwe dest pê bike.
11References
Core references and where to begin
Start with Avin, then Beard, then Morgan.
12Pirs
Pirs, bersiv û têgehên sereke
Gelo xwendin li vir belaş e?
Erê. Her kurs û materyalê fêrbûnê yê Risk Academy, bi rêberiya Nexus Consortium, xwendina wê belaş e, bi leza xwe an bi komekê re. Beşdariya asayî tu xercê nîne; xebata bi pere, stajyerî û bûrs rêkeftinên cuda ne.
Temamkirina kursekê çi dide min?
Tomara temamkirinê: kurs, guhertoya wê, dîrok û tiştê ku hat nirxandin, bi awayê xwerû taybet e û tu parve dikî. Ew li ser hev kom dibe bo destkeftên dîsîplîn, beş û bernameyê. Tomarek diyar dike çi hat xwendin û nirxandin û jêhatîbûnê piştrast nake; ew ne lîsans, ne sernavê pîşeyî û ne rewşa kar e.
Dane û cih ji ku tên?
Her fakulte li ser cêwîyekî cihekî rastîn ê ji daneyên vekirî hatî avakirin ders dide; her qat peydaker, lîsans û dîroka xwe hildigire, û her encam li ser Academy çavkaniya xwe diyar dike. Nexşe û wêne ji bo fêrkirinê nîşander in, qet ne nirxandina cihekî ne.
How do I take part beyond the courses in global catastrophic risks?
Şaneyeke jêhatîbûnê ji sê heta heft kesan ava bike, rêyeke hevpar bixwîne, erkeke bi çavdêrî di National Working Groups de bigire, an komeke ji saziya xwe bîne. Ji bo rêxistinan.
Têgehên sereke
Têgeh
Global catastrophic risk
A risk that could cause severe harm to human well-being on a global scale.
Têgeh
Low-probability, high-impact event
An event that is unlikely in any year but would have very large consequences.
Têgeh
Existential risk
A risk that threatens the survival of humanity or its long-term potential.
Têgeh
Near-Earth object
Anasteroidor comet whose orbit brings it close to the Earth.
rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkBeşdar bibe
Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Risk Academy
Girêdayî
Around Global catastrophic risks
Xeterên karesatî yên cîhanî
Prepare with a related course
Open courses in connected disciplines teach the methods this discipline will build on.
Risk Academy is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.
Independence
Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.
This site uses only strictly necessary cookies to work and to remember your privacy choices. Nothing loads from other companies, and we never sell or share your personal information.
Details
This site uses only strictly necessary cookies to work and to remember your privacy choices. Nothing loads from other companies, and we never sell or share your personal information. We run no advertising. You can review your choices at any time through Privacy choices at the foot of every page.