Illustrative: a fire front spreading fastest downwind over hill terrain, embers and the smoke plume

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Course catalogue · Hazards, Disasters and Resilience

Hazard Science

Heat, drought and wildfire

Heat, drought and wildfire, taught twice over: as the working methods of the field and as its frontier since 2024, with labs on the Academy's tools, open data and the Nexus Standards.

Core course Frontier course

The discipline

01Core course · L2 Intermediate

Heat, drought and wildfire: foundations and practice

This area covers extreme heat and heatwaves, meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought, and wildfire and its smoke.

Level
L2 Intermediate
Study time
about 24 hours (planning estimate)
Status
In authoring
Prerequisites
An L1 course in the area, or an entry review

Why now

It quantifies heat as a leading climate health risk with economic costs, supporting investment in early warning, cooling and heat action plans. World Health Organization, Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, 29 October 2025

Learning outcomes

  1. Define wet-bulb globe temperature and the other key terms of the discipline and use them correctly in a written case
  2. Explain heatwaves and heat stress and drought types and indices with a worked example and its source
  3. Apply the discipline's method to a documented case and explain each result with its source
  4. Analyse a named case against drought monitoring and early warning, stating evidence, date and limits

Modules

  1. Heatwaves and heat stress
    • Heatwaves and heat stress
    • Drought types and indices
    • Drought monitoring and early warning
  2. Wildfire behaviour and fire weather
    • Wildfire behaviour and fire weather
    • Wildfire smoke and health
    • Heat action plans
  3. Urban heat islands
    • Urban heat islands
    • Compound heat and drought
  4. Lab: the discipline's method
    • Air temperature and humidity combine into an apparent temperature; an exposure-response curve from mortality time series gives the relative risk for each degree above the minimum-mortality temperature; the city's baseline deaths turn that risk into excess deaths; a threshold turns the number into an alert level.
    • Work the method through a documented case and explain each result
    • Read the method's sources and stated values

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-X1 Climate change risk and adaptation
  • NRS-X2 Disaster risk reduction and crisis management
  • NRS-H5 Hazard family: Thermal extremes
  • NRS-H10 Hazard family: Water deficit
  • NRS-H24 Hazard family: Vegetation and peat fire
  • NRS-M2 Method fabric: Hazard science

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance

Assessment

  • 40%Lab recordWork the discipline's method through a documented case and explain each result with its source and date
  • 40%Case memoApply the discipline's methods to a named place or organisation, stating evidence and limits
  • 20%Key terms checkShort answers on the key terms, marked against the definitions

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Intermediate, 4 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

Open now in this discipline

References

  1. World Health Organization, Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, 29 October 2025
  2. Gasparrini et al., Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study, 2015
  3. Perkins and Alexander, On the measurement of heat waves, 2013
  4. Mora et al., Global risk of deadly heat, 2017
02Live map

Water now in Iberia

Rain, flood water and root-zone soil moisture from NASA satellites and models, with long-term water stress, over Iberia.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

Water now

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Water now, framed on Iberia.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONETSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • SMAP Level 4 soil moisture and snow mass, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GRACE and GRACE-FO JPL mascon solution, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
  • Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (13 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Root-zone soil moisture, 0 to 100 cm: SMAP Level 4, NASA NSIDC DAAC · 11 Oct 2026
  • Snow cover: VIIRS NOAA-20 NDSI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Water storage anomaly, monthly: GRACE-FO JPL mascons, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · July 2022
  • Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

03How learning runs

How learning runs, as a process you can run

Select a scenario and press Play: course, pathway, practice, faculty, cells and record.

04What is changing

Frontier course · L3 advanced, programme courses and standards

Heat, drought and wildfire: frontier methods

The methods, data, tools and studies that changed heat, drought and wildfire between 2024 and 2026, taught by reproducing them on open data.

Level
L3 Advanced
Study time
about 28 hours (planning estimate)
Status
Planned
Prerequisites
Heat, drought and wildfire: foundations and practice; Working knowledge of a scripting language (Python or R) for the labs

Why now

It quantifies heat as a leading climate health risk with economic costs, supporting investment in early warning, cooling and heat action plans. World Health Organization, Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, 29 October 2025

Learning outcomes

  1. Explain what changed in heat, drought and wildfire since 2024 and cite the studies, data or rules behind each change
  2. Reproduce lancet Countdown 2025 estimates 546,000 heat-related deaths a year on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  3. Evaluate a 2024 to 2026 study: its question, data, method, limits and what it changes for practice
  4. Design an analysis that combines a frontier method with the faculty's instruments, and justify each choice

Modules

  1. Lancet Countdown 2025 estimates 546,000 heat-related deaths a year
    • The 2025 Lancet Countdown report found heat-related mortality up 23% since the 1990s to about 546,000 deaths a year, and estimated 640 billion potential labour hours lost to heat in 2024, with 12 of 20 indicators at record levels.
    • It quantifies heat as a leading climate health risk with economic costs, supporting investment in early warning, cooling and heat action plans.
    • World Health Organization, 29 October 2025
  2. WHO and WMO issue guidance on workplace heat stress
    • WHO and WMO published a joint report and technical guidance on climate change and workplace heat stress, warning that rising temperatures already harm the health and productivity of workers in agriculture, construction and fisheries, and outside the tropics.
    • Occupational heat is now a mainstream health and productivity risk; the guidance supports employer heat action plans and thresholds for protective measures.
    • World Meteorological Organization, 22 August 2025
  3. Drought hotspots report documents 2023–2025 impacts worldwide
    • A report by the US National Drought Mitigation Center and UNCCD catalogued some of the most widespread and damaging droughts on record since 2023, with impacts on hunger, hydropower, food prices, river transport and canal shipping.
    • Drought propagates through energy, trade and food systems, so drought risk assessment needs to trace cross-sector and cross-border impacts, not only rainfall deficits.
    • UN Convention to Combat Desertification, 2 July 2025
  4. Rapid attribution finds warming raised Los Angeles fire weather odds
    • A World Weather Attribution rapid study found human-induced warming made the extreme fire weather behind the January 2025 Los Angeles fires about 35% more likely and about 6% more intense, and lengthened the dry season by about 23 days.
    • Rapid attribution informs wildfire risk framing in exposed wildland-urban areas, though such studies are not peer reviewed at release and carry uncertainty.
    • World Weather Attribution, 28 January 2025
  5. Reproduction lab
    • Extend the discipline's method with one frontier method and compare its results
    • State the uncertainty and the limits of the result
    • Peer review against a shared checklist
  6. Technology that helps and the risks it carries
    • Drones, Earth observation, machine learning forecasting and cell broadcast warnings.
    • Telecom and positioning failure, and AI-generated misinformation in a crisis.

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-X1 Climate change risk and adaptation
  • NRS-X2 Disaster risk reduction and crisis management
  • NRS-H5 Hazard family: Thermal extremes
  • NRS-H10 Hazard family: Water deficit
  • NRS-H24 Hazard family: Vegetation and peat fire
  • NRS-M2 Method fabric: Hazard science

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance

Assessment

  • 50%Method reproductionReproduce one frontier method on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  • 30%Study reviewA critical review of a 2024 to 2026 study: question, data, method, limits, what it changes
  • 20%Peer reviewReview two other learners' reproductions against a shared checklist

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Expert, 6 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

Open now in this discipline

References

  1. World Health Organization, Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, 29 October 2025
  2. World Meteorological Organization, WHO, WMO issue new report and guidance to protect workers from increasing heat stress, 22 August 2025
  3. UN Convention to Combat Desertification, Global Drought Hotspots report catalogues severe suffering, economic damage, 2 July 2025
  4. World Weather Attribution, Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area, 28 January 2025
  5. Gasparrini et al., Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study, 2015
  6. Perkins and Alexander, On the measurement of heat waves, 2013
  7. Mora et al., Global risk of deadly heat, 2017
05Take part

Take part in the work

Start from who you are.

06Questions

Questions, answers and key terms

Is the course free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the course?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.

Key terms

Term

Wet-bulb globe temperature

A heat stress index that combines temperature, humidity, wind and radiation.

Term

Standardized Precipitation Index

A drought index that expresses rainfall over a period as departures from the local long-term record.

Term

Agricultural drought

A shortage of soil moisture that reduces crop or pasture growth.

Term

Fire weather index

A rating of fire danger from weather conditions and fuel moisture.

ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

Risk Academy
Related

Around Heat, drought and wildfire: courses

Risk Academy

Study heat, drought and wildfire with us, or teach it

Every course is free and open. Institutions and experts can co-teach, host a cohort, contribute a lab or review a course before it opens.

Browse the course catalogue Partner with the Academy
Risk Academy

Courses · practice · credentials

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Support our work

Who funds us

Risk Academy is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices