Illustrative: a state in a double-well potential, tipping and returning with hysteresis as the forcing changes

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Course catalogue · Systems and Nexus Studies

Systemic Risk and Complexity

Global catastrophic risks

Global catastrophic risks, taught twice over: as the working methods of the field and as its frontier since 2024, with labs on the Academy's tools, open data and the Nexus Standards.

Core course Frontier course

The discipline

01Core course · L2 Intermediate

Global catastrophic risks: foundations and practice

This area covers low-probability, high-impact risks that could severely harm humanity at global scale: extreme pandemics, nuclear war, extreme space weather and near-Earth objects, very large volcanic eruptions, severe climate outcomes and risks from advanced technology.

Level
L2 Intermediate
Study time
about 24 hours (planning estimate)
Status
In authoring
Prerequisites
An L1 course in the area, or an entry review

Why now

Arsenal growth and weakening arms control raise the baseline probability of nuclear catastrophe in risk assessments. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Increasing focus on nuclear weapons amid heightened escalation risks: new SIPRI Yearbook out now, 8 June 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Define global catastrophic risk and the other key terms of the discipline and use them correctly in a written case
  2. Explain defining global catastrophic risk and extreme pandemics with a worked example and its source
  3. Apply the discipline's method to a documented case and explain each result with its source
  4. Analyse a named case against nuclear risk, stating evidence, date and limits

Modules

  1. Defining global catastrophic risk
    • Defining global catastrophic risk
    • Extreme pandemics
    • Nuclear risk
  2. Extreme space weather and near-Earth objects
    • Extreme space weather and near-Earth objects
    • Very large volcanic eruptions
    • Severe climate outcomes
  3. Risks from advanced technology
    • Risks from advanced technology
    • Governance of low-probability, high-impact risk
  4. Lab: the discipline's method
    • A rare event has a small annual probability that compounds over a planning horizon; its impact runs from soot or sulphate in the stratosphere to cooling, to lost calories, to the months a food reserve can cover, and each link carries a range that an honest assessment states.
    • Work the method through a documented case and explain each result
    • Read the method's sources and stated values

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk
  • NRS-T0 Exponential technology risk and responsible innovation
  • NRS-H65 Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions
  • NRS-H71 Hazard family: Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes
  • NRS-H100 Hazard family: Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons
  • NRS-H101 Hazard family: Biotechnology and synthetic biology

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance

Assessment

  • 40%Lab recordWork the discipline's method through a documented case and explain each result with its source and date
  • 40%Case memoApply the discipline's methods to a named place or organisation, stating evidence and limits
  • 20%Key terms checkShort answers on the key terms, marked against the definitions

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Intermediate, 4 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

References

  1. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Increasing focus on nuclear weapons amid heightened escalation risks: new SIPRI Yearbook out now, 8 June 2026
  2. Robock, Oman and Stenchikov, Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals, 2007
  3. Xia et al., Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection, 2022
  4. Rougier, Sparks, Cashman and Brown, The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions, 2018
02Live map

Hazards and exposure in Middle East and North Africa

Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, over Middle East and North Africa.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Hazards and exposure

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Hazards and exposure, framed on Middle East and North Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

03How learning runs

How learning runs, as a process you can run

Select a scenario and press Play: course, pathway, practice, faculty, cells and record.

04What is changing

Frontier course · L3 advanced, programme courses and standards

Global catastrophic risks: frontier methods

The methods, data, tools and studies that changed global catastrophic risks between 2024 and 2026, taught by reproducing them on open data.

Level
L3 Advanced
Study time
about 28 hours (planning estimate)
Status
Planned
Prerequisites
Global catastrophic risks: foundations and practice; Working knowledge of a scripting language (Python or R) for the labs

Why now

Arsenal growth and weakening arms control raise the baseline probability of nuclear catastrophe in risk assessments. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Increasing focus on nuclear weapons amid heightened escalation risks: new SIPRI Yearbook out now, 8 June 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Explain what changed in global catastrophic risks since 2024 and cite the studies, data or rules behind each change
  2. Reproduce SIPRI Yearbook 2026 sees growing reliance on nuclear weapons on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  3. Evaluate a 2024 to 2026 study: its question, data, method, limits and what it changes for practice
  4. Design an analysis that combines a frontier method with the faculty's instruments, and justify each choice

Modules

  1. SIPRI Yearbook 2026 sees growing reliance on nuclear weapons
    • SIPRI estimates 12,187 nuclear warheads in January 2026, about 9,745 in military stockpiles and 2,100 to 2,200 on high alert.
    • Arsenal growth and weakening arms control raise the baseline probability of nuclear catastrophe in risk assessments.
    • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 8 June 2026
  2. NASA ruled out asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts in 2032
    • NASA concluded asteroid 2024 YR4, initially given a small chance of hitting Earth on 22 December 2032, poses no significant risk to Earth, and Webb observations in February 2026 ruled out a lunar impact.
    • The episode shows how impact probabilities evolve with observation and how planetary defence communicates them.
    • NASA, 5 March 2026
  3. Second International AI Safety Report published
    • The 2026 International AI Safety Report, led by Yoshua Bengio with over 100 independent experts and backed by over 30 countries and organisations, reviews advancing capabilities, evidence on key risks and the progress and limits of risk management.
    • It is the main shared scientific synthesis on risks from advanced AI for policy and catastrophic risk analysis.
    • International AI Safety Report, 3 February 2026
  4. Doomsday Clock set at 85 seconds to midnight
    • The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest ever, calling for limits on nuclear arsenals, international guidelines on AI and multilateral agreements on biological threats.
    • It is a widely cited expert judgement on combined catastrophic risks and the governance gaps behind them.
    • Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 27 January 2026
  5. Reproduction lab
    • Extend the discipline's method with one frontier method and compare its results
    • State the uncertainty and the limits of the result
    • Peer review against a shared checklist

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-C6 Systemic and cascading risk
  • NRS-T0 Exponential technology risk and responsible innovation
  • NRS-H65 Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions
  • NRS-H71 Hazard family: Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes
  • NRS-H100 Hazard family: Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons
  • NRS-H101 Hazard family: Biotechnology and synthetic biology

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance

Assessment

  • 50%Method reproductionReproduce one frontier method on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  • 30%Study reviewA critical review of a 2024 to 2026 study: question, data, method, limits, what it changes
  • 20%Peer reviewReview two other learners' reproductions against a shared checklist

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Expert, 5 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

References

  1. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Increasing focus on nuclear weapons amid heightened escalation risks: new SIPRI Yearbook out now, 8 June 2026
  2. NASA, Asteroid 2024 YR4, 5 March 2026
  3. International AI Safety Report, International AI Safety Report 2026, 3 February 2026
  4. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Doomsday Clock, 27 January 2026
  5. Robock, Oman and Stenchikov, Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals, 2007
  6. Xia et al., Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection, 2022
  7. Rougier, Sparks, Cashman and Brown, The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions, 2018
05Take part

Take part in the work

Start from who you are.

06Questions

Questions, answers and key terms

Is the course free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the course?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.

Key terms

Term

Global catastrophic risk

A risk that could cause severe harm to human well-being on a global scale.

Term

Low-probability, high-impact event

An event that is unlikely in any year but would have very large consequences.

Term

Existential risk

A risk that threatens the survival of humanity or its long-term potential.

Term

Near-Earth object

An asteroid or comet whose orbit brings it close to the Earth.

ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

Risk Academy
Related

Around Global catastrophic risks: courses

Risk Academy

Study global catastrophic risks with us, or teach it

Every course is free and open. Institutions and experts can co-teach, host a cohort, contribute a lab or review a course before it opens.

Browse the course catalogue Partner with the Academy
Risk Academy

Courses · practice · credentials

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Support our work

Who funds us

Risk Academy is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices