Illustrative: a state in a double-well potential, tipping and returning with hysteresis as the forcing changes

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Course catalogue · Systems and Nexus Studies

Systemic Risk and Complexity

Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems

Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems, taught twice over: as the working methods of the field and as its frontier since 2024, with labs on the Academy's tools, open data and the Nexus Standards.

Core course Frontier course

The discipline

01Core course · L2 Intermediate

Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems: foundations and practice

This area covers thresholds beyond which a system shifts abruptly and often irreversibly to another state, in the climate, in ecosystems and in societies and markets.

Level
L2 Intermediate
Study time
about 24 hours (planning estimate)
Status
Planned
Prerequisites
An L1 course in the area, or an entry review

Why now

The Global Tipping Points Report (2023, updated 2025) and studies of early warning signals in the Atlantic overturning circulation brought tipping elements into risk assessment, with warm-water coral reefs assessed as past their thermal tipping threshold. Science, Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points (Armstrong McKay et al.), 2022

Learning outcomes

  1. Define tipping point and the other key terms of the discipline and use them correctly in a written case
  2. Explain bifurcations and alternative stable states and climate tipping elements: ice sheets, ocean circulation, tropical forests, coral reefs, permafrost with a worked example and its source
  3. Apply the discipline's method to a documented case and explain each result with its source
  4. Analyse a named case against ecological regime shifts, stating evidence, date and limits

Modules

  1. Bifurcations and alternative stable states
    • Bifurcations and alternative stable states
    • Climate tipping elements: ice sheets, ocean circulation, tropical forests, coral reefs, permafrost
    • Ecological regime shifts
  2. Social and economic tipping points
    • Social and economic tipping points
    • Early warning signals: critical slowing down, variance and autocorrelation
    • Resilience measurement and recovery rates
  3. Tipping cascades between elements
    • Tipping cascades between elements
    • Positive tipping points in technology and behaviour
    • Governance of tipping risks
  4. Lab: the discipline's method
    • As a forcing approaches a tipping threshold the system recovers from small knocks ever more slowly; that slowing shows up as rising autocorrelation and variance in a long record, and the trend in those statistics, not any single value, is what an early warning signal reads.
    • Work the method through a documented case and explain each result
    • Read the method's sources and stated values

Labs with Academy tools

Assessment

  • 40%Lab recordWork the discipline's method through a documented case and explain each result with its source and date
  • 40%Case memoApply the discipline's methods to a named place or organisation, stating evidence and limits
  • 20%Key terms checkShort answers on the key terms, marked against the definitions

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Intermediate, 4 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

References

  1. Scheffer et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions, 2009
  2. Dakos et al., Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change, 2008
  3. Armstrong McKay et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, 2022
02Live map

People and exposure in Bangladesh

Population density, night-time lights, air quality, heat and floods, over Bangladesh.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

People and exposure

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

People and exposure, framed on Bangladesh.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONETSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (7 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC · 10 Oct 2026
  • Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026

03How learning runs

How learning runs, as a process you can run

Select a scenario and press Play: course, pathway, practice, faculty, cells and record.

04What is changing

What is changing, with standards and evidence

Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems: frontier methods

The methods, data, tools and studies that changed tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems between 2024 and 2026, taught by reproducing them on open data.

Level
L3 Advanced
Study time
about 28 hours (planning estimate)
Status
Planned
Prerequisites
Tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems: foundations and practice; Working knowledge of a scripting language (Python or R) for the labs

Why now

The Global Tipping Points Report (2023, updated 2025) and studies of early warning signals in the Atlantic overturning circulation brought tipping elements into risk assessment, with warm-water coral reefs assessed as past their thermal tipping threshold. Science, Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points (Armstrong McKay et al.), 2022

Learning outcomes

  1. Explain what changed in tipping points and resilience of Earth and social systems since 2024 and cite the studies, data or rules behind each change
  2. Reproduce tipping elements on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  3. Evaluate a 2024 to 2026 study: its question, data, method, limits and what it changes for practice
  4. Design an analysis that combines a frontier method with the faculty's instruments, and justify each choice

Modules

  1. Tipping elements
    • Ice sheets, AMOC, Amazon, permafrost, coral reefs
    • Thresholds and their uncertainty ranges
    • Cascades between elements
  2. Early warning signals
    • Critical slowing down: variance and autocorrelation
    • False alarms and data length
    • Spatial indicators
  3. Social tipping
    • Positive tipping points in technology adoption
    • Policy leverage points
    • Resilience of social-ecological systems
  4. Reproduction lab
    • Extend the discipline's method with one frontier method and compare its results
    • State the uncertainty and the limits of the result
    • Peer review against a shared checklist

Labs with Academy tools

Assessment

  • 50%Method reproductionReproduce one frontier method on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  • 30%Study reviewA critical review of a 2024 to 2026 study: question, data, method, limits, what it changes
  • 20%Peer reviewReview two other learners' reproductions against a shared checklist

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Expert, 4 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

References

  1. Science, Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points (Armstrong McKay et al.), 2022
  2. Nature, Early-warning signals for critical transitions (Scheffer et al.), 2009
  3. Nature Communications, Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen), 2023 to check
  4. University of Exeter, Global Tipping Points Report, 2025
  5. Dakos et al., Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change, 2008
05Take part

Take part in the work

Start from who you are.

06Questions

Questions, answers and key terms

Is the course free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the course?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.

Key terms

Term

Tipping point

A critical threshold at which a small change pushes a system into a qualitatively different state.

Term

Critical slowing down

The slower recovery from small perturbations as a system approaches a tipping point.

Term

Hysteresis

The property that a system does not return to its earlier state when the driver is reversed.

Term

Tipping element

A large component of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point, such as an ice sheet or the Amazon forest.

ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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