Illustrative: event footprints crossing a portfolio, losses rising and the exceedance-probability curve
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Finance and Economics · Department of Public Finance and Development Economics
What disasters and climate change do to growth, prices and public debt
Macroeconomics of climate and disasters
A large disaster can cost a small economy a year of output, and a warming climate changes the base case of every macroeconomic projection.
- Courses
- In preparation
- Levels
- In development
- Labs
- In development
- Disaster impacts on growth and recovery
- Climate damage functions and their uncertainty
- Fiscal risk from disasters and contingent liabilities
- Climate in debt sustainability analysis
- Inflation and supply shocks from extreme weather
- Central banks, climate scenarios and monetary policy
- Integrated assessment and macroeconomic models
- Social cost of carbon
- Small island and low-income economies under climate shocks
Build a twin of any place
Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow macroeconomics of climate and disasters on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.
- Terrain 0 to 66 m
- 30 power plants, 11,875 MW
- 7 refineries and chemical works
- 2 port land
- 29 named works
- 154 named industrial sites
- Surface water extent, OPERA DSWx (HLS): read live when the 3D twin opens
- Built-up and settlement extent, HBASE 2010: read live when the 3D twin opens
Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and – zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
Flat plan of the same data: relief as contours from the inline grid, the plants by capacity, the industrial points by kind and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices that can draw it, once its data and code have been checked.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
Hazards now in the Bay of Bengal
Flood water, active fires, heavy rain and smoke, beside where people live, over the Bay of Bengal.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards now
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards now, framed on the Bay of Bengal.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (20 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies
The field and its scope
For macroeconomists, fiscal and monetary policy staff and analysts who need to represent disasters and climate change in growth projections, debt analysis and monetary decisions.
Quantities and units
Methods and their limits
Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.
What the field debates
Bodies that set practice, and the data they publish
Bodies and standards are named so learners can find and apply their published work; the Academy teaches their use and links to the publisher, and no affiliation is implied.
Warming and output: a level damage or a growth effect
Integrated assessment models treat warming as a small loss in the level of output; panel evidence finds that temperature changes growth, hurting hot economies most; the choice between the two moves estimated damages by an order of magnitude and with them the social cost of carbon.
Sources: Burke, Hsiang and Miguel, Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production (2015); Nordhaus, Revisiting the social cost of carbon (2017); Dell, Jones and Olken, What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature (2014); Rennert and others, Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2 (2022).
At a glance, hub and courses
Macroeconomics of climate and disasters at a glance
risksacademy.comfinance-economicsdiscipline
- Open, 0
- In preparation, 0
- Subtopics, 9
Research and tools
Research and preprints as they are published, by discipline, with the faculty's other tools.
The hub lists the newest research and preprints for Macroeconomics of climate and disasters, each with its source and date. Open the research hub
Courses in this discipline
Courses for this discipline are in development; until they open, study it through the connected courses and open lessons below.
The course catalogue lists every open course of the Academy.
How Macroeconomics of climate and disasters is taught, as a process you can run
Press Play to run this process from this page's own data.
Practice, learning and connections
How technology helps and what risk it brings
Achievements in this discipline
Course achievements
One for each course with this as its primary discipline, earned when you pass the course's assessed activities.
Department: Public Finance and Development Economics
Earn two discipline achievements in the Department of Public Finance and Development Economics. In development.
An achievement is a record of the learning completed and assessed here. How recognition works.
Where the subject is practised
A field platform page on this subject is in development.
The two Foundry systems where it is practised
- FoundryNXS-DSS systemMacroeconomic paths under climate are scenario setsScenarios room
- NXS-GRX systemMacroeconomic and fiscal indicators are canonical risk dataData room
Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; the courses teach the methods these systems apply.
Across the ecosystem
Take part in Finance and Economics
Start from who you are.
Core references and where to begin
Start with Dell, then Pindyck, then Burke.
Questions, answers and key terms
Is study here free?
What does completing a course give me?
Where do the data and the places come from?
How do I take part beyond the courses in macroeconomics of climate and disasters?
Key terms
Damage function
A relationship between warming or hazard intensity and economic loss used in macroeconomic and integrated assessment models.
Contingent liability
A fiscal obligation that arises only if an event occurs, such as reconstruction after a disaster.
Fiscal space
The room in a government's budget to raise spending or cut taxes without endangering debt sustainability.
Social cost of carbon
The present value of damage from emitting one more tonne of carbon dioxide.
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Around Macroeconomics of climate and disasters
Prepare with a related course
Open courses in connected disciplines teach the methods this discipline will build on.