The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Risk Academy, a Nexortium programmeHealth and SocietyDepartment of Global Health Security
Transmission models, real-time estimation and forecasts for preparedness
A preparedness decision needs more than a curve: it needs an estimate of transmission now, a forecast with its uncertainty and scenarios for what interventions would change.
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Twin figures for Delhi and its National Capital Territory core, counted from its layers at their stated dates.
For Epidemic modelling and forecasting: the faculty's twin of Delhi on the planet map, the globe and in 3D. Pick a generator, switch layers, run the instruments; every layer prints its provider and date.
Drag to move, right drag or Shift with a drag to turn and tilt, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows move, Shift with arrows turn and tilt, + and - zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
Flat plan of the same data: relief as contours from the inline grid, the WorldPop count grid as cells, the mapped hospitals and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices with WebGL once its data and library have been checked.
The map loads from this site as it nears the view (MapLibre 6.9.1, checked by hash).
The discipline teaches compartmental models from SIR to SEIR with interventions, vaccination and hospital capacity, real-time estimation of the reproduction number and nowcasting under reporting delays, ensemble forecasts scored in forecast hubs, and network and agent-based models, fed by case data, wastewater surveillance and pathogen genomics. H5N1 in dairy cattle in the United States and mpox clade Ib are the current cases. A graduate can estimate Rt from a case series, run an SEIR scenario with stated parameters and say what the model does not forecast.
This area covers the mathematical and statistical models of infectious disease spread and their use in preparedness and response: compartmental and network models, real-time estimation of transmission, forecasting and scenario modelling, and the surveillance data they depend on. It is taught in the department of Global Health Security, Faculty of Health and Society, through courses still to be authored.
9 subtopics, taught across its courses and labs.
News and research as they are published, per discipline, with the faculty's other tools.
The newest research, preprints, news and humanitarian reports for Epidemic modelling and forecasting, each with its source and date, load here. Open the research and news hub
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Courses also taught here and the connected disciplines teach the methods it will build on.
One for each of the 0 courses with this primary discipline, when you pass its assessed activities; 0 can be earned now.
Earn two discipline achievements in the Department of Global Health Security. In preparation.
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Open courses in connected disciplines teach the methods this discipline will build on.