Illustrative: a fire front spreading fastest downwind over hill terrain, embers and the smoke plume

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Course catalogue · Earth and Environmental Sciences

Ecology and Land Systems

Land, forests and soils

Land, forests and soils, taught twice over: as the working methods of the field and as its frontier since 2024, with labs on the Academy's tools, open data and the Nexus Standards.

Core course Frontier course

The discipline

01Core course · L2 Intermediate

Land, forests and soils: foundations and practice

This area covers land degradation, desertification, deforestation and land-use change, soil health and erosion, and the role of land in carbon, water and food systems.

Level
L2 Intermediate
Study time
about 24 hours (planning estimate)
Status
In authoring
Prerequisites
An L1 course in the area, or an entry review

Why now

Sand and dust storms link land degradation to health, aviation, solar output and transport risk; AI forecasting is flagged as promising but not yet proven. World Meteorological Organization, WMO Airborne Dust Bulletin No. 10 – July 2026, 10 July 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Define land degradation neutrality and the other key terms of the discipline and use them correctly in a written case
  2. Explain land degradation and desertification and deforestation and land-use change with a worked example and its source
  3. Apply the discipline's method to a documented case and explain each result with its source
  4. Analyse a named case against soil health and erosion, stating evidence, date and limits

Modules

  1. Land degradation and desertification
    • Land degradation and desertification
    • Deforestation and land-use change
    • Soil health and erosion
  2. Land tenure and land governance
    • Land tenure and land governance
    • Drylands and rangelands
    • Land-based carbon
  3. Sand and dust storms
    • Sand and dust storms
    • Land restoration and degradation neutrality
  4. Lab: the discipline's method
    • Rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope and cover multiply into a soil loss rate; set against the slow rate at which soil forms, that rate gives the years until a topsoil is gone and the carbon it takes with it, and the comparison with a tolerable loss is the decision.
    • Work the method through a documented case and explain each result
    • Read the method's sources and stated values

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-N5 Biodiversity and nature risk and resilience
  • NRS-H24 Hazard family: Vegetation and peat fire
  • NRS-H25 Hazard family: Forest and woodland stress
  • NRS-H26 Hazard family: Land and wetland degradation
  • NRS-H21 Hazard family: Erosion and sediment movement
  • NRS-M17 Method fabric: Climate, nature and biodiversity

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance

Assessment

  • 40%Lab recordWork the discipline's method through a documented case and explain each result with its source and date
  • 40%Case memoApply the discipline's methods to a named place or organisation, stating evidence and limits
  • 20%Key terms checkShort answers on the key terms, marked against the definitions

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Intermediate, 4 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

Open now in this discipline

References

  1. World Meteorological Organization, WMO Airborne Dust Bulletin No. 10 – July 2026, 10 July 2026
  2. Borrelli et al., An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion, 2017
  3. Panagos et al., Global rainfall erosivity assessment based on high-temporal resolution rainfall records, 2017
  4. Montgomery, Soil erosion and agricultural sustainability, 2007
02Live map

Habitat condition in the Nordic and Baltic region

Vegetation, land cover, fires and ocean productivity and warmth from NASA satellites, over the Nordic and Baltic region.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

Habitat condition

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Habitat condition, framed on the Nordic and Baltic region.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONETSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS Aqua ocean colour, NASA Ocean Biology Processing Group; distributed by the NASA Ocean Biology DAAC (OB.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Optional layers (5 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Enhanced vegetation index, rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra EVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Gross primary production, 8-day total: MODIS Aqua GPP (MYD17), NASA LP DAAC · 30 Sep 2026
  • Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Ocean chlorophyll-a concentration: MODIS Aqua ocean colour, NASA OB.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

03How learning runs

How learning runs, as a process you can run

Select a scenario and press Play: course, pathway, practice, faculty, cells and record.

04What is changing

Frontier course · L3 advanced, programme courses and standards

Land, forests and soils: frontier methods

The methods, data, tools and studies that changed land, forests and soils between 2024 and 2026, taught by reproducing them on open data.

Level
L3 Advanced
Study time
about 28 hours (planning estimate)
Status
Planned
Prerequisites
Land, forests and soils: foundations and practice; Working knowledge of a scripting language (Python or R) for the labs

Why now

Sand and dust storms link land degradation to health, aviation, solar output and transport risk; AI forecasting is flagged as promising but not yet proven. World Meteorological Organization, WMO Airborne Dust Bulletin No. 10 – July 2026, 10 July 2026

Learning outcomes

  1. Explain what changed in land, forests and soils since 2024 and cite the studies, data or rules behind each change
  2. Reproduce WMO dust bulletin reports worst China dust storm in a decade on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  3. Evaluate a 2024 to 2026 study: its question, data, method, limits and what it changes for practice
  4. Design an analysis that combines a frontier method with the faculty's instruments, and justify each choice

Modules

  1. WMO dust bulletin reports worst China dust storm in a decade
    • The tenth WMO Airborne Dust Bulletin found 2025 global dust levels similar to 2024 but with strong regional extremes, including China's worst sand and dust storm in a decade and record dust storm frequency on the US-Mexico border.
    • Sand and dust storms link land degradation to health, aviation, solar output and transport risk; AI forecasting is flagged as promising but not yet proven.
    • World Meteorological Organization, 10 July 2026
  2. Tropical primary forest loss fell sharply in 2025 after record fires
    • Global Forest Watch reported that humid tropical primary forest loss in 2025 dropped about 36% from 2024, with fire-driven loss down about 50%, while non-fire loss stayed near 2.7 million hectares and Indonesia's primary forest loss rose.
    • Separating fire from clearing matters for attribution and supply chain due diligence; a single good year after a fire peak does not establish a trend.
    • Global Forest Watch (World Resources Institute), 29 April 2026
  3. FAO links land degradation to lower yields for 1.7 billion people
    • The State of Food and Agriculture 2025 estimated that 1.7 billion people live where human-induced land degradation cuts crop yields by about 10%, and that restoring 10% of degraded cropland could feed 154 million more people yearly.
    • It quantifies how soil and land decline translate into food and livelihood risk, giving a basis for prioritising restoration and land policy interventions.
    • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 3 November 2025
  4. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 shows slower but persistent deforestation
    • FAO's FRA 2025 estimated deforestation at 10.9 million hectares a year in 2015–2025, down from 17.6 million in the 1990s, with net forest loss of 4.12 million hectares a year as forest expansion also slowed.
    • This is the reference country-reported baseline for forest change, used in land-use, carbon and deforestation-linked supply chain risk assessment.
    • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 21 October 2025
  5. UNCCD finds three-quarters of land became drier over three decades
    • A UNCCD science-policy report launched at COP16 found 77.6% of Earth's land was drier in 1990–2020 than in the prior 30 years, with drylands expanding by about 4.3 million square kilometres to cover 40.6% of land.
    • Aridity is a slow, largely irreversible shift; land, agriculture and water risk models should treat dryland boundaries as moving rather than fixed.
    • UN Convention to Combat Desertification, 9 December 2024
  6. Reproduction lab
    • Extend the discipline's method with one frontier method and compare its results
    • State the uncertainty and the limits of the result
    • Peer review against a shared checklist
  7. Technology that helps and the risks it carries
    • Earth observation and acoustic monitoring, environmental DNA and GeoAI.
    • The governance of biotechnology releases, and data sovereignty.

Labs with Academy tools

Nexus Standards

Teaches

  • NRS-N5 Biodiversity and nature risk and resilience
  • NRS-H24 Hazard family: Vegetation and peat fire
  • NRS-H25 Hazard family: Forest and woodland stress
  • NRS-H26 Hazard family: Land and wetland degradation
  • NRS-H21 Hazard family: Erosion and sediment movement
  • NRS-M17 Method fabric: Climate, nature and biodiversity

Relies on

  • NS-1 The UNI and the artefact catalogue
  • NS-16 UNI application profile (how articles, documents, code, data, APIs and interfaces carry the UNI)
  • NRS-C1 Risk vocabulary and ontology
  • NRS-C2 Risk assessment method
  • NRS-C3 Hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity data
  • NRS-C4 Risk data model, identifiers and exchange
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action
  • NRS-C8 Evidence, uncertainty and provenance

Assessment

  • 50%Method reproductionReproduce one frontier method on open data and state the uncertainty of the result
  • 30%Study reviewA critical review of a 2024 to 2026 study: question, data, method, limits, what it changes
  • 20%Peer reviewReview two other learners' reproductions against a shared checklist

Delivery

  • Self-paced online, with the labs in the browser
  • Cohort study over six to eight weeks, with a weekly lab review
  • Co-delivered with a partner institution, inside its own courses

Partner on this course

  • Co-teach a module and bring a current case from your work
  • Host a cohort for your learners, with your own schedule and review
  • Contribute a lab: a dataset your institution publishes openly, or a model
  • Review the course content and its references before it opens
  • Translate the course and adapt its cases to your region

How institutions and experts take part

In the Academy LMS

Course on the learning platform
Expert, 7 topics
Cohort group
A community group for each cohort of learners
Achievement
Recorded on completion of the assessed work

Open now in this discipline

References

  1. World Meteorological Organization, WMO Airborne Dust Bulletin No. 10 – July 2026, 10 July 2026
  2. Global Forest Watch (World Resources Institute), Global Forest Watch's 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained, 29 April 2026
  3. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO report: 1.7 billion people experience lower crop yields due to land degradation, 3 November 2025
  4. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, 21 October 2025
  5. UN Convention to Combat Desertification, Three-quarters of Earth's land became permanently drier in last three decades: UN, 9 December 2024
  6. Borrelli et al., An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion, 2017
  7. Panagos et al., Global rainfall erosivity assessment based on high-temporal resolution rainfall records, 2017
  8. Montgomery, Soil erosion and agricultural sustainability, 2007
05Take part

Take part in the work

Start from who you are.

06Questions

Questions, answers and key terms

Is the course free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the course?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.

Key terms

Term

Land degradation neutrality

A state in which the amount and quality of land resources stay stable or increase within an area and time.

Term

Desertification

Land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas caused by climate and human activity.

Term

Land-use change

The conversion of land from one use to another, such as forest to cropland.

Term

Soil organic carbon

Carbon held in soil organic matter, linked to fertility, water retention and emissions.

ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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