nexustandards.com/society · 3 taught
Governance, Security and Society
NRS-H55 Organised and collective violence; NRS-H56 Conflict-induced harm
3standards1discipline
Illustrative: a hexagonal population grid where a wave rises, peaks and recovers from seeded outbreaks
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Governance, Policy and International Affairs · Department of Peace, Conflict and Security
Armed conflict, fragility, compound crises and security risk for organisations
Conflict, fragility and security
Conflict, fragility and security covers armed conflict and violence, state fragility and exclusion, civil unrest, and how they shape exposure, vulnerability and the capacity to manage other risks, including compound crises in which hazards strike fragile settings.
- Courses
- In preparation
- Levels
- L1 Introductory, L2 Intermediate
- Labs
- Map lab, Network lab
- Armed conflict and violence
- State fragility
- Civil unrest and political instability
- Conflict analysis and early warning
- Conflict-sensitive programming
- Compound hazard and conflict crises
- Peacebuilding and human security
- Security risk management for organisations
Courses in development extend the scope to further subjects: Conflict analysis and early warning; Compound crises in fragile settings.
02Maps
Build a twin of any place
Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow conflict, fragility and security on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.
- 13 countries
- First-level divisions, geoBoundaries gbOpen with a licence gate per boundary: read live when the 3D twin opens
- Natural events, NASA EONET: read live when the 3D twin opens
Drag to turn the globe, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows turn, + and – zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
Flat map of the same data: the 13 countries on a graticule and the numbers below. The globe opens on devices that can draw it, once its code has been checked; the live events and divisions load in the globe on request, each with its data date.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
03Live map
Hazards and exposure in Mexico
Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, over Mexico.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on Mexico.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
04The subject
The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies
The field and its scope
For analysts, programme staff and security managers who work in or on conflict-affected and fragile settings, and who need to read conflict data, early warning and fragility assessments with their limits in view.
Quantities and units
Methods and their limits
Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.
What the field debates
Bodies that set practice, and the data they publish
Bodies and standards are named so learners can find and apply their published work; the Academy teaches their use and links to the publisher, and no affiliation is implied.
05The method
From a base rate to a useful alert: why conflict early warning is hardest where it matters most
A conflict forecast is an alert when a probability crosses a threshold; its worth depends on sensitivity, specificity and the base rate of onset, and because onset in peaceful places is rare, most alerts there are false even from a skilled model.
Sources: Hegre and others, ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system (2019); Gleditsch, Wallensteen, Eriksson, Sollenberg and Strand, Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset (2002); United Nations and World Bank, Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (2018); Fearon and Laitin, Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War (2003).
06At a glance
At a glance, with 5 related topics
Conflict, fragility and security at a glance
risksacademy.comgovernance-policydiscipline
- Open, 0
- In preparation, 4
- Also taught here, 4
- Subtopics, 8
Nexus Standards it teaches and relies on
The Nexus Standards the discipline teaches toward, grouped by master standard, with the disciplines that teach each.
nexustandards.com/digital-ai · 1 taught
Digital, Cyber and AI
NRS-M20 Geopolitics, conflict and human security
1standard1disciplinenexustandards.com/humanitarian · 1 taught
Humanitarian Action and Development
NRS-D6 Conflict, fragility and human security risk
1standard1disciplinenexustandards.com/systemic-risk · 1 taught
Systemic Risks
NRS-H120 Structural fragility of interconnected systems
1standard1discipline
Nexus Standards at the AcademyThe Academy proposes how each discipline teaches toward the Nexus Standards; the mapping is open for public review.
Research and tools
Research and preprints as they are published, by discipline, with the faculty's other tools.
The hub lists the newest research and preprints for Conflict, fragility and security, each with its source and date. Open the research hub
Methods, frameworks and hazards
From the Academy's risk taxonomy: the discipline's own entries and those of its primary courses, with how many courses teach each.
Hazard families
- Armed conflict and violence2 courses
- Civil unrest and political instability2 courses
- Forced displacement1 course
- State fragility and exclusion1 course
What is changing now
Recent developments in conflict, fragility and security, each with its source; sources checked on 16 October 2026.
Courses in this discipline
Courses for this discipline are in development; until they open, study it through the connected courses and open lessons below.
Courses with this primary disciplineIn preparation
- RAF-118Conflict, Fragility and Disaster RiskIn preparationFoundation, L1 Introductory, 8 hours (estimate)
- RAT-224Security Risk Management for OrganisationsIn preparationTechnical, L2 Intermediate, 8 hours (estimate)
Courses from connected disciplines that also teach this field
Each course has its primary discipline elsewhere and teaches this field as part of its scope.
07Labs
How the subject is practised in labs
| Lab | What you do in it | Courses using it |
|---|---|---|
| Map lab | Read hazard, exposure and boundaries on real maps | 3 |
| Network lab | Build dependency graphs, find critical nodes, trace cascades | 1 |
08Console
How Conflict, fragility and security is taught, as a process you can run
Press Play to run this process from this page's own data.
09Practice
Practice, learning and connections
How technology helps and what risk it brings
Achievements in this discipline
Pathways that teach it
Where the subject is practised
- The Global Risks Forum (GRF)Diplomacy NexusPeace and human security
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)Society and Human DevelopmentHuman security and wellbeing
Field platforms of the ecosystem where the subject is studied and applied.
The two Foundry systems where it is practised
- FoundryNXS-NST systemConflict events as corroborated incidentsIncidents room
- NXS-GRX systemConflict and fragility dataData room
Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; the courses teach the methods these systems apply.
Disciplines it depends on
- Faculty of Hazards, Disasters and ResilienceHeat, drought and wildfireThe discipline covers extreme heat and heatwaves, meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought.
- Faculty of Earth and Environmental SciencesFood systems and agricultureFood systems risk concerns whether people can reliably obtain safe and nutritious food, from soils.
Across the ecosystem
10Take part
Take part in Governance, Policy and International Affairs
Start from who you are.
11References
Core references and where to begin
Start with World Bank, then Collier, then Fearon.
12Questions
Questions, answers and key terms
Is study here free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the courses in conflict, fragility and security?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.
Key terms
Term
Fragility
A combination of exposure to risk and insufficient capacity of the state, system or communities to manage it.
Term
Conflict sensitivity
Understanding the context and acting to avoid negative effects and support positive ones on conflict.
Term
Do no harm
The principle that interventions should not worsen tensions or vulnerability.
Term
Human security
Freedom from fear, freedom from want and freedom to live in dignity, focused on the protection and empowerment of people.
ReportsContribute
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Risk Academy
Related
Around Conflict, fragility and security
Conflict, fragility and security
Prepare with a related course
Open courses in connected disciplines teach the methods this discipline will build on.