Illustrative: a joint probability density whose dependence shifts over time
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Hazards, Disasters and Resilience · Department of Disaster Risk Reduction and Early Warning
Hazards that come together, in sequence or by triggering one another
Multi-hazard and compound risk assessment
Disasters rarely arrive one hazard at a time: an earthquake triggers landslides and a dam failure, a cyclone brings wind, surge and rain together, a drought dries the fuel a fire then burns.
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- Hazard interactions: triggering, amplification and coincidence
- Compound events and joint probabilities
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- The UNDRR and ISC Hazard Information Profiles
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- Dependence modelling with copulas
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- Terrain 59 to 3,044 m
- 2 reference earthquakes, M7.5 to M7.8
- 3,643,786 people in the box, 2020
- Earthquakes M4.5 and above, past week: read live when the 3D twin opens
- USGS ShakeMap intensity contours: read live when the 3D twin opens
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iCredits
- Terrain Surface height in whole metres on the plan's grid of cells about 785 by 985 metres; the Taurus foothills and the Amanos range frame the fault valley, the box rises from 59 to 3,044 m. Produced using Copernicus WorldDEM-30 © DLR e.V. 2010–2014 and © Airbus Defence and Space GmbH 2014–2018 provided under COPERNICUS by the European Union and ESA; all rights reserved. read 2026-10-17. Estimate: A digital surface model: trees and roofs are in the heights. Relief exaggeration is printed on the stage.
- Reference earthquakes The two main shocks of 6 February 2023: origin, magnitude, depth, time and review status from the USGS detail record, the hypocentre drawn below the ground. U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program. read 2026-10-17. Estimate: Reported solutions as reviewed by the USGS; magnitudes and depths carry the USGS stated uncertainties, which the event page links rather than restates.
- Population count 2020, WorldPop 1 km People per cell in 2020, summed from the national 1 km raster of Turkiye on a grid of 160 by 120 cells; the Syrian part of the box, south of the border, is empty because the national file stops there. WorldPop (www.worldpop.org), University of Southampton, 2020 UN-adjusted 1 km, CC BY 4.0; summed per cell. read 2026-10-17. Estimate: A modelled 2020 estimate adjusted to UN totals; never a count of people affected; cells outside the national file are empty.
- Earthquakes M4.5 and above, past week (live) Reviewed and automatic seismic solutions of the past week inside the box, with magnitude and depth, read from the world feed and filtered to the box in your browser. U.S. Geological Survey; reported detections, automatic solutions preliminary; never a warning. Live: this page requests earthquake.usgs.gov when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it. Estimate: Reported detections; automatic solutions are preliminary; never a warning.
- USGS ShakeMap intensity contours The ShakeMap MMI contours of each main shock draped on the terrain, read from the cont_mmi.json file the event's detail record names; the exposure instrument reads the PAGER exposure table the same record names. U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap and U.S. Geological Survey PAGER (preliminary, automatically generated; see the USGS disclaimers), with the product version and time. Live: this page requests earthquake.usgs.gov when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it. Estimate: Preliminary and automatically generated; PAGER levels and exposures are USGS estimates with stated uncertainty, never a warning or a loss figure of the Academy.
Why this place: The sequence of 6 February 2023 put two events of M7 and above on the East Anatolian fault within nine hours, with reviewed USGS solutions, ShakeMap, PAGER and ground-failure products and a red PAGER alert. One box of about 140 by 130 kilometres holds both epicentres, Kahramanmaras and Gaziantep and the fault valley between the Taurus foothills and the Amanos range, so intensity against distance, exposure and warning lead time are taught on one place. Copernicus DEM GLO-30 covers the box in six tiles and WorldPop gives a 2020 count per cell for the Turkiye part.
Flat plan of the same data: relief, the two epicentres with magnitude and depth, the WorldPop count grid and the numbers below. The 3D twin opens on devices that can draw it, once its data and code have been checked.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
Climate signals in Canada
Surface heat, rain, snow, sea ice, marine heat and water storage, each a dated satellite or model product, over Canada.
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Layers 2
Climate signals
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Climate signals, framed on Canada.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONETSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GRACE and GRACE-FO JPL mascon solution, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (21 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- Snow cover: VIIRS NOAA-20 NDSI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Sea ice concentration: GHRSST MUR, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Water storage anomaly, monthly: GRACE-FO JPL mascons, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · July 2022
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For risk analysts, modellers and planners who assess places exposed to more than one hazard and need methods that treat hazards jointly rather than adding single-hazard results.
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From two margins to a joint return period: how dependence between surge and rainfall multiplies the chance of a compound flood
Each driver has its own exceedance probability; a dependence measure fitted to concurrent records sets a copula; the copula gives the chance that both exceed their thresholds in the same event, which under dependence can be ten times the product of the margins, and the design standard has to be set on that joint number.
Sources: Wahl, Jain, Bender, Meyers and Luther, Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities (2015); Zscheischler et al., Future climate risk from compound events (2018); Nelsen, An Introduction to Copulas (2006); Gill and Malamud, Reviewing and visualising the interactions of natural hazards (2014).
At a glance, hub and courses
Multi-hazard and compound risk assessment at a glance
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Key terms
Compound event
A combination of drivers or hazards, simultaneous or successive, whose joint occurrence produces an impact larger than each alone.
Hazard interaction
A relationship in which one hazard triggers, amplifies or coincides with another.
Joint return period
The average interval between events in which two variables both exceed their thresholds, which depends on their dependence.
Consecutive disasters
Disasters that strike before recovery from an earlier one is complete, so vulnerability has changed.
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