Illustrative: a joint probability density whose dependence shifts over time
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Risk Science and Methods · Department of Decision, Behaviour and Communication
Turning expert knowledge into a reviewable distribution
Expert judgement and elicitation
Where data are thin, risk still has to be quantified, and expert judgement is the method of record.
- Courses
- In preparation
- Levels
- In development
- Labs
- In development
- Structured expert judgement protocols
- The Classical Model and performance-based weighting
- IDEA and Delphi protocols
- SHELF and behavioural aggregation
- Seed questions and expert calibration
- Heuristics and biases in judgement
- Eliciting probability distributions
- Documenting and reviewing an elicitation
- Expert judgement in catastrophe and climate assessment
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Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow expert judgement and elicitation on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.
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- 3 reference earthquakes, M6.2 to M6.6
- Earthquakes M4.5 and above, past week: read live when the 3D twin opens
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Flat plan of the same data: relief, the three reference epicentres with magnitude and depth, and the numbers below; the sampler's figure shows one precomputed field with its parameters. The 3D twin opens on devices that can draw it, once its data and code have been checked.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies
The field and its scope
For analysts, assessment authors and decision makers who must estimate uncertain quantities from experts when data are thin, and do it in a way that others can review.
Quantities and units
Methods and their limits
Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.
What the field debates
Bodies that set practice, and the data they publish
Bodies and standards are named so that learners can find and apply their published work. The Academy teaches the use of that work and links to the publisher. No affiliation is implied.
From an expert's quantiles to a weight: seed questions, calibration, information and the aggregate that results
At a glance, hub and courses
Expert judgement and elicitation at a glance
risksacademy.comrisk-sciencediscipline
- Open, 0
- In preparation, 0
- Subtopics, 9
Research and tools
Research and preprints as they are published, by discipline, with the faculty's other tools.
The hub lists the newest research and preprints for Expert judgement and elicitation, each with its source and date. Open the research hub
Courses in this discipline
Courses for this discipline are in development. Until they open, study the discipline through the connected courses and open lessons below.
The course catalogue lists every open course of the Academy.
How Expert judgement and elicitation is taught, as a process you can run
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Process explorer
How Expert judgement and elicitation is taught
14 steps5 stages
Achievements, where this is practised, practised in and across the ecosystem
Achievements in this discipline
Course achievements
One for each course with this as its primary discipline, earned when you pass the course's assessed activities.
Department: Decision, Behaviour and Communication
Earn two discipline achievements in the Department of Decision, Behaviour and Communication. In development.
An achievement is a record of the learning completed and assessed here. See how recognition works.
Where the subject is practised
A field platform page on this subject is in development.
The two Foundry systems where it is practised
- FoundryNXS-DSS systemExpert estimates enter decisions as stated distributionsDecisions room
- NXS-CMD systemPanels of experts deliberate and decide in councilCouncil room
Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; the courses teach the methods these systems apply.
Across the ecosystem
Take part in Risk Science and Methods
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Core references and where to begin
Start with Aspinall, then Morgan, then O'Hagan.
Questions, answers and key terms
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Key terms
Structured expert judgement
A documented protocol for eliciting and combining expert estimates so that the result can be reviewed.
Classical Model
Cooke's method that weights experts by their calibration and informativeness on seed questions with known answers.
Seed question
A question whose answer is known to the analyst but not the experts, used to score expert performance.
Delphi method
An iterative, anonymous survey of experts with controlled feedback between rounds.
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Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Around Expert judgement and elicitation
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Open courses in connected disciplines teach the methods this discipline will build on.