nexustandards.com/systemic-risk · 1 taught
Systemic Risks
NRS-P4 Foresight, horizon scanning and strategy
1standard1discipline
Illustrative: branching futures, each branch weighted by its probability
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Governance, Policy and International Affairs · Department of Governance, Public Policy and Foresight
Horizon scanning, weak signals, scenarios and deep uncertainty
Foresight and futures
Foresight is the structured exploration of alternative futures so that institutions can anticipate change and act earlier.
- Courses
- In preparation
- Levels
- In development
- Labs
- Network lab, Trigger lab
- Horizon scanning
- Weak signals and emerging issues
- Strategic scenarios
- Deep uncertainty
- Technology futures
- Geopolitical futures
- Future generations
- Foresight in decision making
Courses in development extend the scope to one further subject: Horizon scanning and strategic foresight practice.
02Maps
Build a twin of any place
Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow foresight and futures on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.
Governance, Policy and International AffairsAny placeTwin builder
- 13 countries
- First-level divisions, geoBoundaries gbOpen with a licence gate per boundary: read live when the 3D twin opens
- Natural events, NASA EONET: read live when the 3D twin opens
Drag to turn the globe, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows turn, + and – zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
2 live layers, checked 17 Oct 2026
Places5
Layers3
iCredits
- Countries (Natural Earth 1:110m) The 13 countries with any vertex inside the box, as published at 1:110m with their name, ISO3 code and the Natural Earth population estimate. Made with Natural Earth (public domain), version 5.1.2 bundled at build time. read 2026-10-17. Estimate: Boundaries as published imply no position on any territory; the population figure is the Natural Earth estimate carried in the file, not a census count.
- First-level divisions, geoBoundaries gbOpen with a licence gate per boundary First-level divisions of the countries whose API record passes the licence gate in your browser, for the institutional reach view; a refused licence leaves the country without divisions and says why. geoBoundaries (Runfola et al. 2020, www.geoboundaries.org) and, per country, the boundary's own source and licence as the API record states them (Ethiopia ADM1: Open Africa, Code for Ethiopia, CC BY 4.0). Live: this page requests www.geoboundaries.org when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it. Estimate: Boundaries as published imply no position on any territory. The gate reads each record's boundaryLicense before any geometry is requested; one request per country per page view.
- Natural events, NASA EONET live Open natural events (storms, fires, floods, volcanoes) of the last twenty days inside the box, with their category and source. NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); each event keeps its original source link; no NASA endorsement implied. Live: this page requests eonet.gsfc.nasa.gov when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it. Estimate: Event metadata curated by NASA from the named sources; not a warning.
Why this place: A region of about 2,300 by 2,500 kilometres where regional bodies (IGAD, the African Union, the East African Community, the Nile Basin Initiative) overlap with shared-water diplomacy on the Nile, drought and flood alerts, displacement and conflict, so institutional mandates, foresight and cross-border policy can be taught on the same globe. The twin is globe-scale rather than terrain-scale: it draws countries and first-level divisions as published, with the disclaimer that boundaries imply no position on any territory. Data quality: Natural Earth is bundled and public domain, geoBoundaries publishes each division with its own licence (Ethiopia ADM1 is CC BY 4.0 from Open Africa and Code for Ethiopia), NASA EONET events are live and open, and the INFORM Risk Index is published per country by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. It connects to the Risk governance and institutions, Diplomacy, cooperation and the global commons, Climate and nature governance, Conflict, fragility and security and foresight disciplines and to the convening and policy context pages of the ecosystem sites.
Flat map of the same data: the 13 countries on a graticule and the numbers below. The globe opens on devices that can draw it, once its code has been checked; the live events and divisions load in the globe on request, each with its data date.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
03Live map
Hazards and exposure in Africa
Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, over Africa.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
04The subject
The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies
The field and its scope
For analysts and decision makers who need to scan for emerging issues, build and use scenarios, and make choices that hold up across futures they cannot predict.
Quantities and units
Methods and their limits
Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.
What the field debates
Bodies that set practice, and the data they publish
Bodies and standards are named so learners can find and apply their published work; the Academy teaches their use and links to the publisher, and no affiliation is implied.
05The method
From a probability to a threshold: when a forecast is worth acting on
A probabilistic forecast is judged by its Brier score, but a decision is judged by regret: acting costs a known sum, waiting risks a larger loss, and the probability at which the two expected losses cross is the threshold the forecast has to beat.
Sources: Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (2005); Marchau, Walker, Bloemen and Popper (eds), Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice (2019); Ansoff, Managing Strategic Surprise by Response to Weak Signals (1975); Government Office for Science, The Futures Toolkit (2024); Fuerth, Foresight and anticipatory governance (2009).
06At a glance
At a glance, standards and evidence, research and evidence, what is changing and learning
Foresight and futures at a glance
risksacademy.comgovernance-policydiscipline
- Open, 0
- In preparation, 1
- Also taught here, 3
- Subtopics, 8
Nexus Standards it teaches and relies on
The Nexus Standards the discipline teaches toward, grouped by master standard, with the disciplines that teach each.
Nexus Standards at the AcademyThe Academy proposes how each discipline teaches toward the Nexus Standards; the mapping is open for public review.
Research and tools
Research and preprints as they are published, by discipline, with the faculty's other tools.
The hub lists the newest research and preprints for Foresight and futures, each with its source and date. Open the research hub
What is changing now
Recent developments in foresight and futures, each with its source; sources checked on 16 October 2026.
Courses in this discipline
Courses for this discipline are in development; until they open, study it through the connected courses and open lessons below.
The courses from connected disciplines below also teach this field.
Courses from connected disciplines that also teach this field
Each course has its primary discipline elsewhere and teaches this field as part of its scope.
How the subject is practised in labs
| Lab | What you do in it | Courses using it |
|---|---|---|
| Network lab | Build dependency graphs, find critical nodes, trace cascades | 1 |
| Trigger lab | Set forecast thresholds, pre-agreed actions and messages | 1 |
07Console
How Foresight and futures is taught, as a process you can run
Press Play to run this process from this page's own data.
08Practice
Practice, learning and connections
How technology helps and what risk it brings
Achievements in this discipline
Pathways that teach it
Where the subject is practised
The two Foundry systems where it is practised
- FoundryNXS-DSS systemAlternative futuresScenarios room
- NXS-GRX systemWeak signals from heterogeneous observationsFusion room
Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; the courses teach the methods these systems apply.
Across the ecosystem
09Take part
Take part in Governance, Policy and International Affairs
Start from who you are.
10References
Core references and where to begin
Start with Government Office for Science, then Wack, then Bishop.
11Questions
Questions, answers and key terms
Is study here free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the courses in foresight and futures?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.
Key terms
Term
Horizon scanning
Systematic searching for early signs of change that could matter in the future.
Term
Weak signal
An early, ambiguous indication of a possible change.
Term
Wild card
A low-likelihood, high-impact event that would change the course of the future.
Term
Backcasting
Working back from a desired future to identify the steps needed to reach it.
ReportsContribute
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Risk Academy
Related
Around Foresight and futures
Foresight and futures
Start with an open course
The catalogue lists each course with its outcomes, labs, hours and level.