nexustandards.com/digital-ai · 2 taught
Digital, Cyber and AI
NRS-M20 Geopolitics, conflict and human security; NRS-P8 Security, terrorism and geopolitical risk
2standards1discipline
Illustrative: parties linked to secretariats and to each other
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Governance, Policy and International Affairs · Department of Peace, Conflict and Security
Rivalry, sanctions, instability, country risk and strategic dependencies
Geopolitical and political risk
Geopolitical and political risk covers risks that arise from the actions of states and political systems: geopolitical rivalry and fragmentation, sanctions and economic statecraft, political instability, expropriation and country risk.
- Courses
- In preparation
- Levels
- L2 Intermediate
- Labs
- Network lab, Map lab
- Geopolitical rivalry and fragmentation
- Sanctions and economic statecraft
- Political instability and changes of government
- Country and political risk assessment
- Expropriation and contract risk
- Elections and policy uncertainty
- Chokepoints and strategic dependencies
- Scenario planning for geopolitical shocks
02Maps
Build a twin of any place
Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow geopolitical and political risk on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.
Governance, Policy and International AffairsAny placeTwin builder
- 13 countries
- First-level divisions, geoBoundaries gbOpen with a licence gate per boundary: read live when the 3D twin opens
- Natural events, NASA EONET: read live when the 3D twin opens
Drag to turn the globe, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows turn, + and – zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
2 live layers, checked 17 Oct 2026
Places5
Layers3
iCredits
- Countries (Natural Earth 1:110m) The 13 countries with any vertex inside the box, as published at 1:110m with their name, ISO3 code and the Natural Earth population estimate. Made with Natural Earth (public domain), version 5.1.2 bundled at build time. read 2026-10-17. Estimate: Boundaries as published imply no position on any territory; the population figure is the Natural Earth estimate carried in the file, not a census count.
- First-level divisions, geoBoundaries gbOpen with a licence gate per boundary First-level divisions of the countries whose API record passes the licence gate in your browser, for the institutional reach view; a refused licence leaves the country without divisions and says why. geoBoundaries (Runfola et al. 2020, www.geoboundaries.org) and, per country, the boundary's own source and licence as the API record states them (Ethiopia ADM1: Open Africa, Code for Ethiopia, CC BY 4.0). Live: this page requests www.geoboundaries.org when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it. Estimate: Boundaries as published imply no position on any territory. The gate reads each record's boundaryLicense before any geometry is requested; one request per country per page view.
- Natural events, NASA EONET live Open natural events (storms, fires, floods, volcanoes) of the last twenty days inside the box, with their category and source. NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); each event keeps its original source link; no NASA endorsement implied. Live: this page requests eonet.gsfc.nasa.gov when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it. Estimate: Event metadata curated by NASA from the named sources; not a warning.
Why this place: A region of about 2,300 by 2,500 kilometres where regional bodies (IGAD, the African Union, the East African Community, the Nile Basin Initiative) overlap with shared-water diplomacy on the Nile, drought and flood alerts, displacement and conflict, so institutional mandates, foresight and cross-border policy can be taught on the same globe. The twin is globe-scale rather than terrain-scale: it draws countries and first-level divisions as published, with the disclaimer that boundaries imply no position on any territory. Data quality: Natural Earth is bundled and public domain, geoBoundaries publishes each division with its own licence (Ethiopia ADM1 is CC BY 4.0 from Open Africa and Code for Ethiopia), NASA EONET events are live and open, and the INFORM Risk Index is published per country by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. It connects to the Risk governance and institutions, Diplomacy, cooperation and the global commons, Climate and nature governance, Conflict, fragility and security and foresight disciplines and to the convening and policy context pages of the ecosystem sites.
Flat map of the same data: the 13 countries on a graticule and the numbers below. The globe opens on devices that can draw it, once its code has been checked; the live events and divisions load in the globe on request, each with its data date.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
03Live map
Hazards and exposure in East Asia
Flood water, active fires and surface heat beside population and night-time lights, over East Asia.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards and exposure
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards and exposure, framed on East Asia.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological SurveySources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
04The subject
The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies
The field and its scope
For analysts, treasurers, investors and government planners who must monitor geopolitical rivalry, sanctions, instability and expropriation risk and plan for them without mistaking political judgement for forecasting.
Quantities and units
Methods and their limits
Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.
What the field debates
Bodies that set practice, and the data they publish
Bodies and standards are named so learners can find and apply their published work; the Academy teaches their use and links to the publisher, and no affiliation is implied.
05The method
From an annual hazard to a required return: how political risk prices an investment
Political risk enters an investment as a yearly probability of an adverse event and a loss given that event; compounded over the holding period they give the chance the asset survives intact and the return an investor must demand to break even.
Sources: Caldara and Iacoviello, Measuring Geopolitical Risk (2022); Kobrin, Political Risk: A Review and Reconsideration (1979); Jensen, Political Risk, Democratic Institutions, and Foreign Direct Investment (2008); Farrell and Newman, Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion (2019); Felbermayr, Kirilakha, Syropoulos, Yalcin and Yotov, The global sanctions data base (2020).
06At a glance
At a glance, with 5 related topics
Geopolitical and political risk at a glance
risksacademy.comgovernance-policydiscipline
- Open, 0
- In preparation, 1
- Also taught here, 2
- Subtopics, 8
Nexus Standards it teaches and relies on
The Nexus Standards the discipline teaches toward, grouped by master standard, with the disciplines that teach each.
nexustandards.com/society · 2 taught
Governance, Security and Society
NRS-H111 Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons; NRS-H112 Governance and institutional failure
2standards1discipline
Nexus Standards at the AcademyThe Academy proposes how each discipline teaches toward the Nexus Standards; the mapping is open for public review.
Research and tools
Research and preprints as they are published, by discipline, with the faculty's other tools.
The hub lists the newest research and preprints for Geopolitical and political risk, each with its source and date. Open the research hub
The methods it teaches
From the Academy's risk taxonomy: the discipline's own entries and those of its primary courses, with how many courses teach each.
Methods and practice
- Scenario analysis and stress testing1 course
Hazard families
- Armed conflict and violence1 course
- Geopolitical fragmentation and sanctions1 course
What is changing now
Recent developments in geopolitical and political risk, each with its source; sources checked on 16 October 2026.
Courses in this discipline
Courses for this discipline are in development; until they open, study it through the connected courses and open lessons below.
Courses with this primary disciplineIn preparation
- RAS-411Geopolitical Risk and Supply FragmentationIn preparationSystems, L2 Intermediate, 10 hours (estimate)
Courses from connected disciplines that also teach this field
Each course has its primary discipline elsewhere and teaches this field as part of its scope.
From connected disciplinesIn preparation
- RAS-410Global Food System ShocksIn preparationSystems, L2 Intermediate, 10 hours (estimate), primary discipline: Food systems and agriculture
- RAT-220Third-Party and Supply-Chain RiskIn preparationTechnical, L2 Intermediate, 10 hours (estimate), primary discipline: Trade, supply chains and geoeconomics
07Labs
How the subject is practised in labs
| Lab | What you do in it | Courses using it |
|---|---|---|
| Network lab | Build dependency graphs, find critical nodes, trace cascades | 3 |
| Map lab | Read hazard, exposure and boundaries on real maps | 1 |
08Console
How Geopolitical and political risk is taught, as a process you can run
Press Play to run this process from this page's own data.
09Practice
Practice, learning and connections
How technology helps and what risk it brings
Achievements in this discipline
Pathways that teach it
Where the subject is practised
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)Trade and Strategic ResourcesGeoeconomics and fragmentation
- The Global Risks Forum (GRF)Foresight NexusGeopolitical futures
- The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)Capital Markets NexusGeopolitical shocks
Field platforms of the ecosystem where the subject is studied and applied.
The two Foundry systems where it is practised
- FoundryNXS-DSS systemGeopolitical scenariosScenarios room
- NXS-GRX systemPropagation of political shocksCascades room
Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; the courses teach the methods these systems apply.
Across the ecosystem
10Take part
Take part in Governance, Policy and International Affairs
Start from who you are.
11References
Core references and where to begin
Start with Kobrin, then Farrell, then Caldara.
12Questions
Questions, answers and key terms
Is study here free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the courses in geopolitical and political risk?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.
Key terms
Term
Geopolitical fragmentation
The division of the world economy into rival blocs with fewer shared rules and less trade between them.
Term
Economic statecraft
The use of economic tools, such as sanctions or export limits, to pursue political aims.
Term
Political risk
The risk that political decisions or instability change the value or viability of an activity.
Term
Country risk
The combined economic, political and transfer risks of exposure to one country.
ReportsContribute
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Risk Academy
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Around Geopolitical and political risk
Geopolitical and political risk
Prepare with a related course
Open courses in connected disciplines teach the methods this discipline will build on.