Illustrative: branching futures, each branch weighted by its probability
Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Governance, Policy and International Affairs · Department of Governance, Public Policy and Foresight
Policy analysis, regulatory impact assessment, implementation and learning
Risk-informed public policy
Risk-informed public policy is the analysis, design, implementation and evaluation of government action on risks that fall on the public: floods, pandemics, financial instability, unsafe products, degraded infrastructure.
Courses in development extend the scope to one further subject: Policy evaluation and regulatory impact assessment.
02Maps
Build a twin of any place
Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow risk-informed public policy on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.
Governance, Policy and International AffairsAny placeTwin builder
The Horn of Africa and the Nile basin states, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda and neighbours. Flat map of the same data: the 13 countries on a graticule and the numbers below. The globe opens on devices that can draw it, once its code has been checked; the live events and divisions load in the globe on request, each with its data date.
13 countries
First-level divisions, geoBoundaries gbOpen with a licence gate per boundary: read live when the 3D twin opens
Natural events, NASA EONET: read live when the 3D twin opens
Credits and dates per layer are listed under the stage. Countries are raised on the globe for legibility.
Drag to turn the globe, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows turn, + and – zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.
2 live layers, checked 17 Oct 2026Places5
Layers3
iCredits
Countries (Natural Earth 1:110m) The 13 countries with any vertex inside the box, as published at 1:110m with their name, ISO3 code and the Natural Earth population estimate. Made with Natural Earth (public domain), version 5.1.2 bundled at build time. read 2026-10-17.Estimate: Boundaries as published imply no position on any territory; the population figure is the Natural Earth estimate carried in the file, not a census count.
First-level divisions, geoBoundaries gbOpen with a licence gate per boundary First-level divisions of the countries whose API record passes the licence gate in your browser, for the institutional reach view; a refused licence leaves the country without divisions and says why. geoBoundaries (Runfola et al. 2020, www.geoboundaries.org) and, per country, the boundary's own source and licence as the API record states them (Ethiopia ADM1: Open Africa, Code for Ethiopia, CC BY 4.0). Live: this page requests www.geoboundaries.org when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it.Estimate: Boundaries as published imply no position on any territory. The gate reads each record's boundaryLicense before any geometry is requested; one request per country per page view.
Natural events, NASA EONET live Open natural events (storms, fires, floods, volcanoes) of the last twenty days inside the box, with their category and source. NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); each event keeps its original source link; no NASA endorsement implied. Live: this page requests eonet.gsfc.nasa.gov when the layer is opened; the data date is printed with it.Estimate: Event metadata curated by NASA from the named sources; not a warning.
Why this place: A region of about 2,300 by 2,500 kilometres where regional bodies (IGAD, the African Union, the East African Community, the Nile Basin Initiative) overlap with shared-water diplomacy on the Nile, drought and flood alerts, displacement and conflict, so institutional mandates, foresight and cross-border policy can be taught on the same globe. The twin is globe-scale rather than terrain-scale: it draws countries and first-level divisions as published, with the disclaimer that boundaries imply no position on any territory. Data quality: Natural Earth is bundled and public domain, geoBoundaries publishes each division with its own licence (Ethiopia ADM1 is CC BY 4.0 from Open Africa and Code for Ethiopia), NASA EONET events are live and open, and the INFORM Risk Index is published per country by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. It connects to the Risk governance and institutions, Diplomacy, cooperation and the global commons, Climate and nature governance, Conflict, fragility and security and foresight disciplines and to the convening and policy context pages of the ecosystem sites.
Flat map of the same data: the 13 countries on a graticule and the numbers below. The globe opens on devices that can draw it, once its code has been checked; the live events and divisions load in the globe on request, each with its data date.
The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).
03Live map
People and hazards in the Horn of Africa
Where people live, night-time lights and the floods and fires public institutions answer to, over the Horn of Africa.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
People and hazards, framed on the Horn of Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
Optional layers (3 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
04The subject
The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies
The field and its scope
For analysts, advisers and programme managers who must design, appraise, compare and evaluate public policy on shared risks, and who need to know what the standard tools assume and where they mislead.
Quantities and units
Methods and their limits
Each method is listed with what it assumes and where it fails.
What the field debates
Bodies that set practice, and the data they publish
Bodies and standards are named so learners can find and apply their published work; the Academy teaches their use and links to the publisher, and no affiliation is implied.
05The method
From an annual benefit to a ratio: how the discount rate decides a long-lived safety investment
A flood defence, a retrofit or a vaccine stockpile pays back as a stream of avoided losses over decades; the social discount rate turns that stream into a present value, and the ratio of that value to the capital cost is what appraisal puts before the decision.
Sources: HM Treasury, The Green Book: appraisal and evaluation in central government (2022); Drupp, Freeman, Groom and Nesje, Discounting Disentangled (2018); Hahn and Tetlock, Has Economic Analysis Improved Regulatory Decisions? (2008); OECD, Regulatory Impact Assessment: OECD Best Practice Principles for Regulatory Policy (2020); Lindblom, The Science of Muddling Through (1959).
06At a glance
At a glance, with 5 related topics
Risk-informed public policy at a glance
risksacademy.comgovernance-policydiscipline
Risk-informed public policy at a glance
Open, 2
In preparation, 2
Subtopics, 8
Course codes from the curriculum; study levels L1 to L4.
Foundry system pages describe what each system and its rooms are designed to do; the courses teach the methods these systems apply.
Across the ecosystem
09Take part
Take part in Governance, Policy and International Affairs
Start from who you are.
10References
Core references and where to begin
Start with HM Treasury, then OECD, then Cairney.
11Questions
Questions, answers and key terms
Is study here free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the courses in risk-informed public policy?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.
Key terms
Term
Policy cycle
The stages of agenda setting, design, adoption, implementation and evaluation.
Term
Regulatory impact assessment
A structured appraisal of the likely effects of a proposed regulation.
Term
Implementation gap
The difference between what a policy intends and what happens in practice.
Term
Precautionary principle
Acting to prevent serious harm when evidence is incomplete.
ReportsContribute
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Risk Academy
Related
Around Risk-informed public policy
Risk-informed public policy
Start with an open course
The catalogue lists each course with its outcomes, labs, hours and level.
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Independence
Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.
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