Illustrative: branching futures, each branch weighted by its probability

Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium · Governance, Policy and International Affairs · Department of Governance, Public Policy and Foresight

Policy analysis, regulatory impact assessment, implementation and learning

Risk-informed public policy

Risk-informed public policy is the analysis, design, implementation and evaluation of government action on risks that fall on the public: floods, pandemics, financial instability, unsafe products, degraded infrastructure.

01Scope

What the discipline covers

The subtopics its courses and labs teach.

Courses
2 courses open
Levels
L1 Introductory, L2 Intermediate
Labs
Trigger lab, Network lab
  • Policy analysis
  • Risk-informed policy design
  • Cross-border policy
  • Policy implementation
  • Regulatory impact assessment
  • Policy evaluation and learning
  • Development policy
  • Technology policy

Courses in development extend the scope to one further subject: Policy evaluation and regulatory impact assessment.

02Maps

Build a twin of any place

Search any place or open the world; the layers and generators follow risk-informed public policy on the planet map, the globe and in 3D.

The Horn of Africa and the Nile basin states: a flat plan of the faculty twin. 13 countries; First-level divisions, geoBoundaries gbOpen with a licence gate per boundary: read live when the 3D twin opens; Natural events, NASA EONET: read live when the 3D twin opens. Graticule every five degrees; countries (natural earth 1:110m) as outlines.
The Horn of Africa and the Nile basin states, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda and neighbours. Flat map of the same data: the 13 countries on a graticule and the numbers below. The globe opens on devices that can draw it, once its code has been checked; the live events and divisions load in the globe on request, each with its data date.
  • 13 countries
  • First-level divisions, geoBoundaries gbOpen with a licence gate per boundary: read live when the 3D twin opens
  • Natural events, NASA EONET: read live when the 3D twin opens
Credits and dates per layer are listed under the stage. Countries are raised on the globe for legibility.

Drag to turn the globe, Ctrl with the wheel to zoom. Keyboard: arrows turn, + and – zoom, 0 resets, V steps through the views, Escape clears.

Flat map of the same data: the 13 countries on a graticule and the numbers below. The globe opens on devices that can draw it, once its code has been checked; the live events and divisions load in the globe on request, each with its data date.

The boundaries, names and designations shown do not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Countries: Natural Earth (public domain).

03Live map

People and hazards in the Horn of Africa

Where people live, night-time lights and the floods and fires public institutions answer to, over the Horn of Africa.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 2

People and hazards

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

People and hazards, framed on the Horn of Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONETSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into H3 cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Globe: MapLibre GL JS 6.9.1, BSD-3-Clause, © MapLibre contributors.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • Optional layers (3 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026

04The subject

The subject, methods and measures and debates and bodies

The field and its scope

For analysts, advisers and programme managers who must design, appraise, compare and evaluate public policy on shared risks, and who need to know what the standard tools assume and where they mislead.

05The method

From an annual benefit to a ratio: how the discount rate decides a long-lived safety investment

A flood defence, a retrofit or a vaccine stockpile pays back as a stream of avoided losses over decades; the social discount rate turns that stream into a present value, and the ratio of that value to the capital cost is what appraisal puts before the decision.

Sources: HM Treasury, The Green Book: appraisal and evaluation in central government (2022); Drupp, Freeman, Groom and Nesje, Discounting Disentangled (2018); Hahn and Tetlock, Has Economic Analysis Improved Regulatory Decisions? (2008); OECD, Regulatory Impact Assessment: OECD Best Practice Principles for Regulatory Policy (2020); Lindblom, The Science of Muddling Through (1959).

06At a glance

At a glance, with 5 related topics

Risk-informed public policy at a glance

risksacademy.comgovernance-policydiscipline

Risk-informed public policy: 2 primary courses open, 2 in preparation and 0 also taught here, across 8 subtopics. Courses: RAF-103 L1 open, RAN-307 L2 open, RAN-317 L2 in preparation, RAT-246 L2 in preparation.RAF-103RAN-307RAN-317RAT-246
Risk-informed public policy at a glance
  • Open, 2
  • In preparation, 2
  • Subtopics, 8
Course codes from the curriculum; study levels L1 to L4.
Twin builderBuild a twin of any placeWorked example: the Horn of Africa and the Nile basin states · 4 generators · 10 layers · 3 instruments
07Console

How Risk-informed public policy is taught, as a process you can run

Press Play to run this process from this page's own data.

08Practice

Practice, learning and connections

How technology helps and what risk it brings

09Take part

Take part in Governance, Policy and International Affairs

Start from who you are.

10References

Core references and where to begin

Start with HM Treasury, then OECD, then Cairney.

11Questions

Questions, answers and key terms

Is study here free?
Yes. Every course and learning material of Risk Academy, led by the Nexus Consortium, is free to study, self-paced or with a cohort. Ordinary participation has no fee; paid work, internships and fellowships are separate arrangements.
What does completing a course give me?
A completion record: the course, its version, the date and what was assessed, private by default and shared by you. It stacks into discipline, department and programme achievements. A record states what was studied and assessed and does not certify competence; it is not a licence, a professional title or an employment status.
Where do the data and the places come from?
Every faculty teaches on a twin of a real place built from open data; each layer carries its provider, licence and date, and every result on the Academy states its source. Maps and figures are indicators for teaching, never an assessment of a place.
How do I take part beyond the courses in risk-informed public policy?
Form a competence cell of three to seven people, study a shared pathway, take a supervised assignment in the National Working Groups, or bring a cohort from your institution. For organisations.

Key terms

Term

Policy cycle

The stages of agenda setting, design, adoption, implementation and evaluation.

Term

Regulatory impact assessment

A structured appraisal of the likely effects of a proposed regulation.

Term

Implementation gap

The difference between what a policy intends and what happens in practice.

Term

Precautionary principle

Acting to prevent serious harm when evidence is incomplete.

ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

Risk Academy
Risk-informed public policy

Start with an open course

The catalogue lists each course with its outcomes, labs, hours and level.

Risk Academy

Courses · practice · credentials

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

Risk Academy is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.